Scenario

The following tables present typical scenarios that are generally considered to be credible and non-credible  

A single human error with or without established operating instructions. Incorrect sequencing of events, improper valve positioning,prolonged or excessive cycles, materials transferred too quickly or to the wrong vessel. 

Two simultaneous human errors with or without established operating instructions. Same as above. 

A single instrument or mechanical failure. Pump failure, loss of flow, instrument malfunction, line rupture or leak, loss of cooling. 

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Traditionally, investments in exploration are made many years before there is any opportunity of producing the oil (Fig. 1.2). In such situations companies must have at least one scenario in which the potential rewards from eventual production justify investment in exploration. 

Modem photochemistry (IR, UV or VIS) is induced by coherent or incoherent radiative excitation processes [4, 5, 6 and 7]. The first step within a photochemical process is of course a preparation step within our conceptual framework, in which time-dependent states are generated that possibly show IVR. In an ideal scenario, energy from a laser would be deposited in a spatially localized, large amplitude vibrational motion of the reacting molecular system, which would then possibly lead to the cleavage of selected chemical bonds. This is basically the central idea behind the concepts for a mode selective chemistry , introduced in the late 1970s [127], and has continuously received much attention [10, 117. 122. 128. 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. 134... 

In many colloidal systems, both in practice and in model studies, soluble polymers are used to control the particle interactions and the suspension stability. Here we distinguish tliree scenarios interactions between particles bearing a grafted polymer layer, forces due to the presence of non-adsorbing polymers in solution, and finally the interactions due to adsorbing polymer chains. Although these cases are discussed separately here, in practice more than one mechanism may be in operation for a given sample. 

How can we apply molecular dynamics simulations practically. This section gives a brief outline of a typical MD scenario. Imagine that you are interested in the response of a protein to changes in the amino add sequence, i.e., to point mutations. In this case, it is appropriate to divide the analysis into a static and a dynamic part. What we need first is a reference system, because it is advisable to base the interpretation of the calculated data on changes compared with other simulations. By taking this relative point of view, one hopes that possible errors introduced due to the assumptions and simplifications within the potential energy function may cancel out. All kinds of simulations, analyses, etc., should always be carried out for the reference and the model systems, applying the same simulation protocols. 

Once the broad outlines of DNA replication and protein biosynthesis were established scien tists speculated about how these outlines af fected various origins of life scenarios A key question concerned the fact that proteins are re quired for the synthesis of DNA yet the synthesis of these proteins is coded for by DNA Which came first DNA or proteins How could DNA store genetic infor mation if there were no enzymes to catalyze the polymerization of its nucleotide components How could there be proteins if there were no DNA to code for them ... 

The detection of a specific gas (10) is accompHshed by comparing the signal of the detector that is constrained to the preselected spectral band pass with a reference detector having all conditions the same except that its preselected spectral band is not affected by the presence of the gas to be detected. Possible interference by other gases must be taken into account. It may be necessary to have multiple channels or spectral discrimination over an extended Spectral region to make identification highly probable. Except for covert surveillance most detection scenarios are highly controlled and identification is not too difficult. 

A. V. de Carvalho, "Puture Scenarios of Alcohols as Puels ia Brazil," 5rd Int. Sjmp. onyilcoholFuels Technology (Asilomar, Calif., May 29—31,1979). 

Fire test methods attempt to provide correct information on the fire contribution of a product by exposing a small sample to conditions expected in a fire scenario. Methods can be viewed in two ways the first entails the strategy of the fire test, ignition resistance or low flammabiUty once ignited the second addresses the test specimen, a sample representative of the product or a sample of a material that might be used in the product. Fire science has progressed markedly since the older test methods were developed and it is known that the basis for many of these tests is doubthil. Results from older tests must be used with great care. 

A projection of biomass energy consumption in the United States for the years 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030 is shown in Table 6 by end use sector (12). This analysis is based on a National Premiums Scenario which assumes that specific market incentives are appHed to aU. new renewable energy technology deployment. The scenario depends on the enactment of federal legislation equivalent to a fossil fuel consumption tax. Any incentives over and above those in place (ca 1992) for use of renewable energy will have a significant impact on biomass energy consumption. 

Without proper control of hazards, a sequence of events (scenario) occurs which results ia an accident. A hazard is defined as anything which could result ia an accident, ie, an unplaimed sequence of events which results ia iajury or loss of life, damage to the environment, loss of capital equipment, or loss of production or inventory. 

The subsequent step is to identify the various scenarios which could cause loss of control of the hazard and result in an accident. This is perhaps the most difficult step in the procedure. Many accidents have been the result of improper characterization of the accident scenarios. For a reasonably complex chemical process, there might exist dozens, or even hundreds, of scenarios for each hazard. The essential part of the analysis is to select the scenarios which are deemed credible and worst case. 

The next part of the procedure involves risk assessment. This includes a deterrnination of the accident probabiUty and the consequence of the accident and is done for each of the scenarios identified in the previous step. The probabiUty is deterrnined using a number of statistical models generally used to represent failures. The consequence is deterrnined using mostiy fundamentally based models, called source models, to describe how material is ejected from process equipment. These source models are coupled with a suitable dispersion model and/or an explosion model to estimate the area affected and predict the damage. The consequence is thus determined. 

Hazard analysis does have limitations. First, there can never be a guarantee that the method has identified all of the hazards, accident scenarios, and consequences. Second, the method is very sensitive to the assumptions made by the analysts prior to beginning the procedure. A different set of analysts might well lead to a different result. Third, the procedure is sensitive to the experience of the participants. Finally, the results are sometimes difficult to interpret and manage. 

An important part of hazard analysis and risk assessment is the identification of the scenario, or design basis by which hazards result in accidents. Hazards are constandy present in any chemical faciUty. It is the scenario, or sequence of initiating and propagating events, which makes the hazard result in an accident. Many accidents have been the result of an improper identification of the scenario. 

Most hazard identification procedures have the capabiUty of providing information related to the scenario. This includes the safety review, what-if analysis, hazard and operabiUty studies (HAZOP), failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and fault tree analysis. Using these procedures is the best approach to identifying these scenarios. 

Once the scenario has been identified, a source model is used to determine the quantitative effect of an accident. This includes either the release rate of material, if it is a continuous release, or the total amount of material released, if it is an instantaneous release. Eor instance, if the scenario is the mpture of a 10-cm pipe, the source model would describe the rate of flow of material from the broken pipe. 

The ha2ard assessment is to iaclude identification of a worst-case scenario and other more likely scenarios for release of a regulated substance, and analy2e the off-site consequences of such releases. The release and consequence assessment is to iaclude the rate, duration, and quantity of the release, the distances for exposure or damage (usiag atmospheric, called "F" stabiUty and a 1.5-m/s wiad, and most-often-occurriag conditions), populations that could be exposed, and environmental damage that could be expected. 

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