Hydrogen penetration scenarios

Figure 14.5 shows the different scenarios with respect to the development of the market penetration of hydrogen passenger cars until 2050, as developed by the HyWays project for the EU (HyWays, 2007) in addition, the most optimistic world hydrogen penetration scenario developed by the IEA is displayed (which also includes... 

Section 18.2 describes the competitiveness of economies in the field of hydrogen using a so called lead market approach. Section 18.3 deals with hydrogen penetration scenarios, which are the underlying scenarios for the different model applications in Sections 18.4-18.6. 

Hydrogen-penetration scenarios and investments in hydrogen technologies... 

Figure 18.3. Structure of the investments of the six HyWays countries (France, Germany, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands and Norway) in a hydrogen economy (cumulative for a ten-year period, hydrogen high-penetration scenario).

Figure 18.6. Net employment effects for the hydrogen high penetration, and medium penetration scenarios with optimistic learning rates for hydrogen passenger cars, as well as hydrogen low penetration scenarios with moderate learning rates for hydrogen passenger cars for the years 2020 and 2030. The overall net employment effects for the ten HyWays countries in three import and export scenarios are shown.

Figure 18.12. Subsidies and diffusion of hydrogen cars into car fleet of EU25 (source ASTRA results based on ElyWays high penetration scenario).

Based on the framework of economic development, energy prices, hydrogen car penetration and the structure of renewable hydrogen production described in the previous sections, the hydrogen car s high-penetration scenario of HyWays is simulated with the ASTRA model and the results are compared with the BAU scenario. Figure 18.14... 

An indication of the environmental effects of hydrogen deployment for each of six European countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and the UK) is given in Fig. 19.10, where the fine dust emissions are shown for the hydrogen high-penetration scenario. Similar trends are found for other pollutants. The data are normalised in respect to the baseline scenario and show a trend very similar for the analysed countries with a reduction of more than 70% in 2050. The results are an average per country. At a local level, higher reductions can also be achieved if nontechnical measures, such as limitation of city centre access for non-zero emission vehicles, are taken. 

As part of its systems analysis, the DOE should map out and evaluate a transition plan consistent with developing the infrastructure and hydrogen resources necessary to support the committee s hydrogen vehicle penetration scenario or another similar demand scenario. The DOE should estimate what levels of investment over time are required—and in which program and project areas—in order to achieve a significant reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from passenger vehicles by midcentury. 

Table 11.2 summarizes the variation in the hydrogen demand scenarios. The time snapshots on which the infrastructure analysis is based are related to the number of hydrogen vehicles on European roads. A discrete infrastructure scenario consists of a penetration scenario (when will this number of vehicles be on the roads ), a local use scenario (what percentage... 

Baptista P,Tomas M and Silva C (2010), Plug-in hybrid fuel cell vehicles market penetration scenarios. Inti. Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 35,10024-10030. 

Table 14.4 displays the initial market penetration of all hydrogen vehicles -passenger cars, light-duty vehicles and buses - for the Reference scenario relative to the estimated development of the total vehicle stock as well as the shares of the hydrogen vehicle drive trains, i.e., fuel cells and internal combustion engines. 

Table 14.4. Penetration of hydrogen vehicles in the Reference scenario until 2030...

In all scenarios, the first hydrogen vehicles penetrating the market are fleet vehicles (buses and LDV). From 2013 on, the first FC cars are assumed to appear. For FC passenger cars it is also assumed that the first ones will be commercially operated fleet vehicles. 

Figure 15.3. Three USDOE scenarios for hydrogen FCV market penetration (Gronich, 2006), and historical market penetration rates for gasoline hybrid vehicles displaced by 12 years.

Figure 15.3 shows the number of hydrogen vehicle sales per year for each scenario, and compares this with the historical market penetration of gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) in the USA, with the HEV curves displaced by 12 years, to reflect hydrogen s later introduction into the market. Scenarios 1 and 2 are similar to the market introduction rate of gasoline hybrid vehicles in the United States, but... 

Figure 18.7. Employment effects for the hydrogen high penetration in the structural identity scenario for the different economic sectors of the ten HyWays MS countries.

Figure 19.7. Development of the penetration rate of hydrogen vehicles for passenger transport (scenarios of HyWays, 2007, see Chapter 14).

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