Assessment Scenario

Assess both scenarios Landfill Waste indnerafion Assess shreddingfmilling - scenario and Check exduston of recyding gn if processes are covered by earlier lifecyde stage or Assess relevant MR-scenarios Assess relevant scenarios Thermal treatment coandneratlon Chemical physical treatment Re-Disfillation... 

As an alternate or addition to scenario assessments, simulated exercises or dry-runs could be developed to test the effectiveness of the new organization. This could be similar to table-top exercises commonly run by companies to test the effectiveness of the emergency response plans as well as the use of process simulators to test response of operations personnel to process upsets. The assessment should verify that individuals can complete their critical safety responsibilities in a reasonable amount of time. 

We were on target to both perform the CFD analysis test work to support Future work could have included transient accident conditions scenario assessments... 

The next part of the procedure involves risk assessment. This includes a deterrnination of the accident probabiUty and the consequence of the accident and is done for each of the scenarios identified in the previous step. The probabiUty is deterrnined using a number of statistical models generally used to represent failures. The consequence is deterrnined using mostiy fundamentally based models, called source models, to describe how material is ejected from process equipment. These source models are coupled with a suitable dispersion model and/or an explosion model to estimate the area affected and predict the damage. The consequence is thus determined. 

An important part of hazard analysis and risk assessment is the identification of the scenario, or design basis by which hazards result in accidents. Hazards are constandy present in any chemical faciUty. It is the scenario, or sequence of initiating and propagating events, which makes the hazard result in an accident. Many accidents have been the result of an improper identification of the scenario. 

The ha2ard assessment is to iaclude identification of a worst-case scenario and other more likely scenarios for release of a regulated substance, and analy2e the off-site consequences of such releases. The release and consequence assessment is to iaclude the rate, duration, and quantity of the release, the distances for exposure or damage (usiag atmospheric, called "F" stabiUty and a 1.5-m/s wiad, and most-often-occurriag conditions), populations that could be exposed, and environmental damage that could be expected. 

Air Pollution Dispersion Application of air dispersion modeling principles and EPA tools to assessing environmental impacts from stack and area releases of pollutants Dispersion theory Gaussian plume model Ground-level concentrations Worst case scenarios Air quality impact assessments Stationary source emissions... 

Assess the effects of these fire scenarios on accident sequences in event trees for fire-induced initiating events. 

It can simulate a wide variety of release scenarios but is particularly well suited to assessing health consequence impacts and risk. 

The Modeling Engine in THERdbASE has the following model groups 1) Population Distributions, 2) Location/Activity Patterns, 3) Food Consumption Patterns, 4) Agent Releases Characteristics, 5) Microenvironment Agent Concentrations, 6) Macroenvironment Agent Concentrations, 7) Exposure Patterns and Scenarios, 8) Dose Patterns, and 9) Risk Assessment. 

The models in the THERdbASE CD are Chemical Source Release, Instantaneous Emission, Chemical Source Release, Timed Application, Indoor Air (2-Zone), Indoor Air (N-Zone), Exposure Patterns for Chemical Agents, Benzene Exposure Assessment Model (BEAM), Source Ba.sed Exposure Scenario (Inhalation + Dermal), and Film Thickness Based Dermal Dose. 

Parallel to the frequency assessment, the consequences of the scenarios were calculated for the effects on the public and plant personnel of chemical release through the rupture disc and fire and explosion. 

Which ventilation efficiency index should be chosen for assessment depends on the actual scenario in the enclosure. 

Figure 1 shows part of a solvent phase polypropylene plant. The plant consists of three process lines, denoted A, B, and C. During a risk assessment review, a scenario was identified that involved a release of reactor contents from a location near the west end of the A line. Estimates are needed of the blast overpressures that would occur if the resulting cloud of vapor, mist, and power ignites. 

PROBLEM DEFINITION. This is achieved through plant visits and discussions with risk analysts. In the usual application of THERP, the scenarios of interest are defined by the hardware orientated risk analyst, who would specify critical tasks (such as performing emergency actions) in scenarios such as major fires or gas releases. Thus, the analysis is usually driven by the needs of the hardware assessment to consider specific human errors in predefined, potentially high-risk scenarios. This is in contrast to the qualitative error prediction methodology described in Section 5.5, where all interactions by the operator with critical systems are considered from the point of view of their risk potential. 

Fig. 3 Temperature changes (top) and precipitation changes (middle) in Europe and the Mediterranean, from the simulations performed by 21 global models, for the AIB scenario. Values are differences between 2080-2099 and 1980-1999. Left column, annual mean middle column, winter mean right column, summer mean. An assessment of the uncertainty of precipitation changes is given in the bottom row, by indicating the number of models that give the same sign of change. Taken from Christensen et al. [4]...

Caille F, Riera JL, Rodriguez-Labajos B, MiddeUcoop H, Rosell-Mele A (2007) Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 4 1265-1299... 

PECs have been calculated for various scenarios (production, formulation, and use) as a means to conduct a risk assessment. 

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