Scenario definition

PBLx exposure through fish ingestion represents a case in which highly variable and uncertain data must be characterized. The exposure route involves the ingestion of fish contaminated by PBLx and incorporates the variability/uncertainty in water concentrations, a fish BCF and fish intake to define the variance in the distribution of likely human intake of PBLx. 

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All input parameters, scenario definitions and results are stored in a database for easy access and retrieval. Analysis of individual scenario results and statistical analysis over all scenarios (or any subset) is possible. Typical individual scenario results are deposition, dosage and casualty level on the attacked target. Typical statistical analysis results are dosage and deposition threat spectra, and casualty spectra. The casualty levels and spectra can be obtained for various health effect levels (eye effect, incapacitation, lethal) and protection levels (no protection, suit only, mask only, mask and suit, collective protection). This model thus largely eliminates the subjectivity involved in scenario studies, protective and detector equipment procurement. 

Key elements of reactive hazard identification are owner-initiated review, chemistry review, review of unit operations, review of scenarios, definition of required testing, records testing, and interpretation of results for owner. 

Figure 19.8. Development of total C02 emissions for road transport (see Chapter 14 for scenario definitions).

Scenario uncertainty characterization may include a description of the information used for the scenario characterization (scenario definition). This includes a description of the purpose of the exposure analysis. For regulatory purposes, the level of the tiered approach is essential to describe the choice of data, whether defaults, upper-bound estimates or other single point estimates, or distributions have been used. This choice may govern the kind of uncertainty analysis. 

From scenario definition to uncertainty analysis communication with the risk managers... 

Integral part of the risk analysis of a critical system is identification and assessment of hazards that significantly contribute to risk (Rausand Hoyland 2004). The hazard analysis generates data required in the next stage of analysis, which lead to description of risk scenarios, definition of safety functions, evaluation of actual risk levels and required risk reduction. Then the technical specification of safety-related functions to be realized by the system architectures considered to select most justified one. 

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