Natural economic scenario

The variable operating costs include the consumption of feed + fuel, cooling water and electricity. For their evaluation, it was taken into account that in the actual economic scenario the costs of such a scheme are mainly related to those of the natural gas and of the plant thermal efficiency. The evaluation is reported in Table 9.3. 

The cost of gas from the industrial boiler retrofit is compared to the delivered prices to the industrial sector of distillate and residual oil and natural gas. Comparisons are presented for the Midwest, New England and Northwest regions for 1985 and 1990 under three economic scenarios. The scenarios are based on assumptions regarding escalations in the price of oil and the resultant impacts on the prices of other conventional fuels. Scenarios are classified as low, medium, and high, corresponding to oil prices of 14.50, 15.15, and 19.72 per barrel, respectively, in 1990. The scenarios are part of DOE s current policy and evaluation program.(5)... 

In normative models aimed at environmental sustainability, the natural approach to energy demand is to translate needs and goal satisfaction to energy requirements consistent already at demand level with environmental sustainability. For market-driven scenarios, basic needs and human goals play an equally important role, but secondary goals are more likely to be influenced by commercial interest rather than by personal motives. It is interesting that the basic needs approach is always taken in discussions of the development of societies with low economic activity, but rarely in discussions of highly industrialised cormtries. 

The above results make it very clear that forecasts of the future oxidation capacity of the atmosphere depend critically on the assumed emissions. The IPCC did not assign probabilities to its emission scenarios but it is apparent that some of these scenarios are highly improbable for oxidant precursor emissions. Integrated assessment models, which couple global economic and technological development models with natural Earth system models provide an alternative approach to the IPCC scenario approach with the added advantage that objective estimates of individual model uncertainties can be combined with Monte Carlo approaches to provide more objective ways of defining means and errors in... 

In this rather common scenario of disease progression, one sees how the changing nature of drugs, diseases, severity of diseases and comorbidity can radically change the medical and economic implications of compliance errors. 

Results of the energy cost comparison are presented in Table V. In the Midwest, wood gas is estimated to cost 3.11 and 3.25 per GJ in 1985 and 1990, respectively, under the medium price scenario. In 1985, wood gas is cheaper than distillate oil and somewhat more expensive than residual oil and natural gas, but essentially competitive with all three fuels. In 1990, it is competitive with residual oil and natural gas and possesses a substantial economic advantage over distillate oil under the medium cost scenario. Results from the high price scenario in both years show wood gas at a disadvantage compared to natural gas, competitive with residual oil, and again, substantially cheaper than distillate oil. 

In New England, the economics of wood gas are extremely attractive. Under the medium price scenario for 1985 and 1990, respectively, wood gas is projected to cost 3.11 and 3.25 per GJ. Wood gas is substantially cheaper than distillate oil and competitive with residual oil in both years under all scenarios. The same result holds in comparison to natural gas, with the exception of the high escalation scenario in 1990. Here the cost of gas exceeds that of natural gas by about. 20 per GJ. 

As pointed out above, the business process is likely to be profoundly influenced by a fully implemented policy of PI. A chronic problem in the manufacture of commodity chemicals is the cyclical nature of the industry. This is induced by over enthusiastic simultaneous investment in large-scale upratings which are then followed by an oversupplied market. The alternative scenario which is rendered feasible and economic by PI, is to uprate the plant in smaller steps in order to follow the market more closely. This should avoid the boom and bust with today s technology. 

---