Scenario techniques and demand modelling

Scenarios are snapshot pictures of a future situation, with sufficient detail to allow them to be checked for consistency. Scenarios are not forecasts, but rather an exploration of various different visions considered attractive or for some other reason being discussed by a group of people in society. Well thought-out scenarios are important tools for decision-makers by offering the possibility of orderly change from one situation to a new one, an option that conventional economic theory is unable to offer, as it is based on trend forecasts departing from analysis of the past and application of economic rules also derived from past behaviour. 

Several scenarios for global energy demand and supply by the year 2050 are discussed below. For ease of comparison, they are based on the same assumptions regarding energy demand concern for human welfare and environmental sustainability are assumed to lead to highly efficient energy consumption patterns based on increased concern for materials conservation and emphasis on non-material ( information society ) types of activity. 

The actual development may comprise a combination of some reference scenarios selected for analysis, with each reference scenario being a clear and perhaps extreme example of pursuing a concrete line of political and technological preference. It is important that the scenarios selected for political consideration be based on values and preferences judged as important in the 

COUNTRY CONTINENT REGION POPULATION ( 000) 1996 POPULATION ( 000) 2050 Urban % 1992 Urban % 2050 

COUNTRY CONTINENT REGION POPrOOO) 1996 POP( OOO) 2050 Urban 92 Urban 50 

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