Reference scenario

Figure 3.4 shows the past and expected future development of global energy-related C02 emissions for selected years, from 1971 until 2030 for the above-described IEA Reference Scenario. According to this scenario, global C02 emissions will increase by 1.7% per year over the projection period, from 26.1 Gt in 2004 to 40.4 Gt in 2030 (see also Chapter 2). 

Table 3.11 summarises the current projections of the production of unconventional oil, including synthetic fuels from coal and gas, until 2030. Today, unconventional fuels account for around 2% of world oil production of 81 Mb/day. Their future will depend on the oil price. If prices stay at relatively high levels, unconventional fuels could reach between 2.6 and 5.5 Gb (7 and 15 Mb/day) in 2030. According to the IEA (2006) WEO Reference Scenario, total oil production in 2030 will amount to 42.3 Gb (116 Mb/day). Hence, unconventional fuels would make up between 6% and 13% of total oil production in 2030, of which around one-third comes from oil sands. Unconventional fuels are not a silver bullet they can briefly delay the maximum rate of oil production, however, the global decline of production cannot be prevented in the short to medium term, if demand for oil continues to surge. 

Construction start (forecast 3 GW/yr assumed) - present trends (1) Required Construction start to maintain constant capacity (2) Required Construction start to meet WEO-2006 reference scenario (3) Required Construction start to meet WEO-2006 alternative policy scenario (4)... 

The beginning of the possible market introduction of hydrogen passenger cars in the most optimistic scenarios is around 2015, which is also in line with the implementation plan of the European Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Platform (HFP, 2007). The Reference scenario features high policy support, fast learning, concentrated users, early network and no country-specific bounds. 

Table 14.4 displays the initial market penetration of all hydrogen vehicles -passenger cars, light-duty vehicles and buses - for the Reference scenario relative to the estimated development of the total vehicle stock as well as the shares of the hydrogen vehicle drive trains, i.e., fuel cells and internal combustion engines. 

Table 14.4. Penetration of hydrogen vehicles in the Reference scenario until 2030...

Table 14.5. Annual hydrogen demand in the Reference scenario...

The Reference scenario ( REF ) is, among others, based on the distributed users scenario for the geographical distribution of hydrogen demand, a fuelling-station strategy tailored to meeting demand only ( FS demand ) and a late road network it is further characterised by high natural gas prices and a stabilisation objective for C02... 

See Reference scenario See Reference scenario See Reference scenario 50% renewable H2 from 2020 on See Reference scenario See Reference scenario... 

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