Scenario planning

In dealing with future uncertainties. Royal Dutch/SheU pioneered Scenario planning (54,55). Alternative assumptions for future developments can be combined under this approach in various ways to give a number of consistent possible outcomes (56) and provide a basis for both actions and reactions. The approach has rewarded Shell handsomely. 

One alternative to planning in this environment of unknowns is called scenario planning. Utility planners in 2000 continue to estimate resource requirements for five to ten years into the future. These resources could be constructed indigenous to their systems or external to their systems, or purchased from off-system. By considering multiple alternatives for generation sources, the planner can simulate power transfers from within and outside each system. The results of these scenario analyses can be used to estimate where critical transmission might be constructed to be most effective for wide-area power transfer. Similarly, analyzing multiple transfers across a system can provide further justification for a new transmission path. 

Supply/production issues can be combined with pipeline evaluation to provide an integrated tool for scenario planning. 

It is important to leam about the variables as quickly as possible in order to adjust your priorities early based on that full knowledge. One of the things we found to be helpful was a technique called scenario planning, which looks at many different ways that the world is going to change in the next 5 to 10 years or more. That allows you to say, Well, if it s going to be a green world, how does that... 

While it is generally recommended to use scenario planning as a precursor to quantitative decision analysis (cf. Wright and Goodwin 1999, pp. 318-319 Geoffrion 1978, pp. 166-167), Herzhoff (2004, pp. 150-195) found in his empirical study on the use of scenario planning in chemical industry that only 43% of the participating companies actually used scenario techniques. 

Mobasheri F, Orren LH, Sioshansi FP (1989) Scenario Planning at Southern California Edison. Interfaces 19 31-44... 

Moyer K (1996) Scenario Planning at British Airways - A Case Study. Long Range Planning 29 172-181... 

Schoemaker PJH (1995) Scenario Planning A Tool for Strategic Thinking. 

Wright G, Goodwin P (1999) Future-Focussed Thinking Combining Scenario Planning with Decision Analysis. Journal of Multicriteria Decision Analysis 8 311-321... 

Finally, companies need to adapt key corporate processes that influence the entrepreneurial behavior of those divisions and business units active in China. One example of this is adjusting the budgeting and planning processes scenario planning with a two-year timeframe can help companies handle the level of dynamism... 

Because the objective of an exposure assessment is to characterize both the magnitude and the reliability of exposure scenarios, planning for an uncertainty analysis is a key element of an exposure assessment. The aims of the uncertainty analysis in this context are to individually and jointly characterize and quantify the exposure prediction uncertainties resulting from each step of the analysis. In performing an uncertainty analysis, typically the main sources of uncertainties are first characterized qualitatively and then quantified using a tiered approach (see chapter 4). In general, exposure uncertainty analyses attempt to differentiate between key sources of uncertainties scenario uncertainties, model uncertainties and parameter uncertainties (for definitions, see section 3.2). 

The anxiety has resulted in the ojjeration of COP (United Nation s Framework Convention of Climate Change), and the third conference on COP will be held in the beginning of December 1997 at Kyoto International Conference Hall. Naturally, such scenarios planned on governmental or political basis would be focused on strategic topics such as the restriction on the amount of consumption of fossil fuels through the tax for the use of carbon resources and encouraging the temperate habits in the life style of jjeople. 

Scenario planning is a tool for ordering one s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one s decisions might be played out. 

Ringland G (2002) Scenario Planning Managing for the Future. Wiley, Chichester. 

Eroyd, J. E., Lord, S. M., Ohland, M. W., Prahallad, K., Lindsay, E. D., Diehl, B. (2014). Scenario planning to envision potential futures for engineering education. Paper presented at the Erontiers in Education Conference, Madrid, Spain. 

Know the options. Companies that are good at reducing risks in value networks understand the options before the event or crisis occurs. The use of what-if analysis and scenario planning helps the company build playbooks of potential outcomes. These playbooks allow teams to work through potential options before a major issue helping companies to prepare. This reduces the time to act. 

Refer to literature rai business and supply chain strategy literature (e.g., Christopher (2005)) and scenario planning (e.g., Sodhi (2003))... 

However, feedforward or triple loop processes have to be associated with operational changes. The anticipation of future events and situations and the scenario planning associated with these macro processes require organizational flexibility and play an important role in strategic learning. 

Anonymous, Shell s multiple scenario planning a realistic alternative to the crystal ball. World Business Weekly (1980). 

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