Global renewable energy scenarios

The outcome of this centralised renewable energy scenario is illustrated in Fig. 5.63 and 5.64, showing the siuplus and deficit of demand coverage by the mix of renewable resources available to each region (and inviting trade). 

A scenario summary is shown in Fig. 5.65. Evidently, city conglomerations use more energy than can be supplied by rooftop solar energy and wind energy placed within the urban setting, whereas many rural areas turn out to be able to supply far more energy than used locally, allowing an export to urban areas profitable to both. 

Implementation of either of the 2050 scenarios, or a combination of them, involves sketching a path of moving from the current system primarily based 

EXPORT/IMPORT MATCHING POINT DELIVERY FINAL CONVERSIONS END JSE 

The assumptions that the future transition will be driven by fair market rules are somewhat at variance with the present situation. On one hand, there are hidden subsidies in many regions (e.g., to fossil and nuclear energy, where society pays for environmental and health impacts and assumes the responsibility for risk-related events), and on the other hand, monopolies and generally differences in size and power of the energy industries involved in different technologies make the actual price setting likely not to follow those prescribed by the life-cycle analysis in a fair market philosophy. 

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Global energy use nearly triples from 2000 to 2050. World wide nuclear power production also nearly triples during this time. Natural gas use is large in this scenario, and its use more than triples over these 50 years. Renewable energy is also abundant. 

The Renewables-Intensive Global Energy Scenario (RIGES) predicts a primary energy potential from biomass resources for Western Europe to be 14160 PJ/year by 2025 and 14 170 PJ/year by 2050 (Johansson et al., 1993). Thereby the biomass potential comprises resources from wood, energy crops, agricultural residues and industrial biomass residues. The estimates are based on the biomass production at that time in combination with assumptions of future growth rates. 

A renewables-intensive global energy scenario (Appendix to Chapter 1). In Renewable Energy. Sources for Fuels and Electricity, ed. Johansson, T. B., Kelly, H., Reddy, A. K. N. and Williams, R. H. Washington, DC Island Press, pp. 1071-1142. 

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