Optimistic scenario

In spite of the fact that in the 1970s, many countries cut back their use of DDT and other OCPs, these pesticides will remain in the biosphere in huge quantities for many years to come. In particular, about 2/3 of the 3.5-4 million tons of DDT produced in the world by the middle of the 1980s (almost 1 kg per each inhabitant of the Earth) is still circulating in the biosphere. If the year 2000 level of DDT use is maintained until 2010, the fluxes of DDT from the atmosphere and its concentration in the air and fall-out will increase by approximately a factor of 1.5-2. Under these conditions, DDT concentration in the soil will grow by 10% Since DDT falls into the ocean at a rate of 40-50 thousand tons a year, aggregate DDT content in the ocean will reach 500-600 thousand tons in 2010. In the most optimistic scenario (a complete ban on DDT use everywhere), a sharp decrease in the level of DDT in atmospheric fall-out should take place, along with a specific decrease in the amount in the soil (by 30% over 10 years). However, even in this case, total DDT content in the ocean will only decrease to 300-400 thousand tons. 

The beginning of the possible market introduction of hydrogen passenger cars in the most optimistic scenarios is around 2015, which is also in line with the implementation plan of the European Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Platform (HFP, 2007). The Reference scenario features high policy support, fast learning, concentrated users, early network and no country-specific bounds. 

In contrast, the IEA (2005) derives for its most optimistic scenario ( Scenario D ), the low scenario, a total hydrogen demand for the transport sector of 12.4 EJ in 2050 (this is also similar to (IEA, 2006b)). In this scenario, approximately 80% of the hydrogen demand in 2050 is split into largely equal parts among Europe, North America and China. 

In this section we demonstrate the capability of our formulation in dealing with variations in the objective function prices, based on historical data. We present the uncertainty in terms of three scenarios (i) the above average or optimistic scenario... 

Fig. 4. Projected trend of the Earth surface temperature increase. Upper curve, pessimistic scenario with no emission curtailment lower curve, optimistic scenario with significant emission curtailment middle curve, in-between scenario. (Adapted from IPCC 2001.)...

On a qualitative basis, the estimates of recovered sulfur from refinery operations appear to be the most secure. Except for district IV, which depends heavily on the ultimate productivity of the Overthrust Belt, estimates of sulfur production from sour natural gas also seem reliable. The heavy crude oil sulfur output estimate is reasonably firm. Oil shale, tar sands, heavy oil and in situ coal combustion will produce little sulfur even under optimistic scenarios. The smelter acid projection is weak. Metal output may... 

The optimistic scenario of Bjorkstrom (1979) takes into account the ocean-carbonate system by parameterizing the H2 and 7/3 flows in Figure 3.3. 

Figure 6.14. Forecasting the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere obtained under different anthropogenic scenarios 1 Keeling and Bacastow pessimistic scenario 2 Bjorkstrom optimistic scenario 3 IPCC scenario 4 Kondratyev realistic scenario. The ordinate A = Ca(t)/Ca(1900).

A study by the University of Minnesota completed May 19,1989 (25), concluded that there are adequate rubber markets for Tirecyde products, but that the Tirecyde product performance and delivery often failed to live up to customers expectations. The study also conduded that the operation needs a large infusion of cash (over two million dollars) before reaching 60 percent of capaaty and reaching breakeven conditions under an optimistic scenario. As a result of the University of Minnesota study, St. Louis County and the state dedded not to continue funding the RRE Tirecyde project. 

The ten-year projection should be provided for three scenarios base, optimistic, and pessimistic. These cases are not meant to be simple percentage changes of the sales projechons. Instead, the team should try to identify the drivers of the project s success and construct alternahves for the future that lead to different results for the project The base case should be the most likely case. The optimistic scenario should be based on the positive development of some (not all) key success factors. The pessimistic scenario is usually the minimum feasible case, meaning a situation where the organization would still pursue the project, but some factors do not develop in a positive way. 

Using the base-case assumptions for feedstock availability (without federal incentives), 15 of the 53 missions penetrate the market by the year 2020, producing approximately 5.4 quads of fuel and chemical products, including electricity and steam. Assuming federal incentives and optimistic but achievable feedstock availability, 17 of the 53 missions penetrate the market by year 2020, producing approximately 10.3 quads of fuel and chemical products. The penetrations expected by type of fuel for the "base case" and "optimistic" scenarios are shown in Table III. 

Risk is substantially reduced (about 50% reduction in VaR), but OV also reduces by roughly the same amount. Thus, contracts have a hedging effect from bad scenarios, but also prevent high profit materializing in optimistic scenarios. 

Detectability is defined as the time it takes for the buyer to realize that a disruption to supply network has occurred. Modeling the propagation of disruption information in a supply chain depends on the way nodes communicate with one another. Under the best-case scenario, each supplier, independent of its tier, communicates directly with the buyer. This is a very optimistic scenario since it requires every supplier to know the end destination of its product and to establish a direct connection with the buyer. The next best scenario assumes that every disrupted supplier reports to its immediate buyer. This situation is more realistic however, it does not ensure that the information will reach the primary buyer promptly since the immediate buyer of the disrupted supplier may not share the information with his customers or with the main buyer. Another scenario would be to assume that the information flows randomly in the supply chain network. This scenario may be perceived as pessimistic at first, but the method can be customized to better model the reality. 

In a moderate lithium demand scenario, it has been shown that the easily extractable reserves in stable countries might already be depleted in 2053 if no recycling takes place. Assuming a medium to high RR of 40% and 80%, this part of the reserves could be exploitable until 2058 and 2064 respectively. In a rather optimistic scenario the total amount of reserves are available until 2092 (with no recycling), 2099 (with a RR of 40%) and 2109 (with a RR of 80%). 

Mortality trends from mesothelioma for French men aged 50 to 79 years continue to increase, reaching a peak averaging between 1140 (optimistic scenario) and 1300 deaths (pessimistic scenario) annually around the years 2030 and 2040, respectively (Banaei et al. 2000). In Japan, from 1958 to 1996, a total of 1,846 (0.17%) malignant mesothelioma cases (1,287 male, 558 female, 1 unknown) were registered among 1,056,259 autopsy cases (Murai 2001). The frequency of mesothelioma (number of cases/total autopsy cases) was 0.10% (461/440,334) for the term 1958-1979, 0.18% (716/390,124) for 1980-1989, and 0.30% (669/225,801) for... 

For a more optimistic scenario it is necessary to abandon the strong condition on plasma radius, made in that lecture and consider, for example, the less stringent condition imposed by alpha confinement a 3jB. For instance, when a = 0.5, the result is that p = 4-10 (fF/m"), Ln = 4- 10 W n = 4 T ). 

This is the Step 6 result minus the Step 7 estimate and begins to illustrate the large differences between and huge implications of the flnancially-conservative Scenario 1 and, at the other end of the spectrum, the financially optimistic Scenario 2. 

The required Scenario 1 net worth of 8,761,775 may initially seem astounding. Recognize that it is a function of the conservative, that is, safe set of flnancial assumptions. With the optimistic Scenario 2, the net worth required at retirement is dramatically reduced to 1,713,404. However, it is still almost two million dollars. 

As an example, assume that a student or young professional, perhaps you, completes Scenario 3 in Table 10.5. Because a moderate approach was taken, that is, somewhere between conservative Scenario 1 and optimistic Scenario 2, the resultiug net worth required at retirement is 5,000,000. The forward-looking professional then decides to create some ten percent scenarios with the goal of achieving all or most of the necessary 5,000,000 net worth at the end of his or her earning phase. Table 10.6 presents results of three ten percent investment scenarios. 

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