Scenario analysis

A conceptually simple approach that avoids the difficulties of model weighting is scenario analysis or the 1-at-a-time method, where the alternative models are analyzed separately and the resnlts are compared. In the example of the previous section, this might produce a conclusion of the type If model A is true then 0 people will get cancer if model B is trne then 200 people will get cancer. However, this 

Application of Uncertainty Analysis to Ecological Risk of Pesticides 

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Devesa E, Comas J, Turon C, Ereixo A, Carrasco F, Poch M (2009) Scenario analysis for the role of sanitation infrastructures in integrated urban wastewater management. Environ Modell Softw 24(3) 371-380... 

Berding V, Schwartz S, Matthies M (2000) Scenario analysis of a level III multimedia model using generic and regional data. Environ Sci Pollut Res 7(3) 147-158... 

The approach described here combines infrastructure build-up and scenario analysis. However, its validity depends on the validity of the assumptions made on the energy... 

Scenario analysis of US hydrogen infrastructure and vehicle costs... 

Our scenario analysis is based on two Microsoft Excel -based models, which we developed for hydrogen infrastructure costs and vehicle scenario analysis. 

Melendez, M. (2007). Geographically Based Hydrogen Demand Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis. Presented at the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure, January 31, 2007, Washington, DC. wwwl.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/analysis/pdfs/ scenario analysis melendezl 07.pdf. 

Program Level 1 Conduct a worst-case release scenario analysis, review accident history, ensure emergency response procedures are in place and coordinated with community officials. 

Another important reason for using multiple scenarios is to represent major sources of variability, or what-if scenarios to examine alternative assumptions about major uncertainties. This can be less unwieldy than including them in the model. Also, the distribution of outputs for each separate scenario will be narrower than when they are combined, which may aid interpretation and credibility. A special case of this occurs when it is desired to model the consequences of extreme or rare events or situations, for example, earthquakes. An example relevant to pesticides might be exposure of endangered species on migration. This use of multiple scenarios in ecological risk assessment has been termed scenario analysis, and is described in more detail in Ferenc and Foran (2000). 

One-at-a-time (OAT) method or scenario analysis alternative models are analyzed separately and the results are compared. 

What can go wrong scenario analysis is a very important but complex process. It is impossible to cover every nuance associated with it and the scenarios can be open for interpretation, as is the whole API, ASME and PED. The only guidance here is to attempt at least a thorough scenario analysis and avoid major accidents and incidents that can cost money and life. 

This approach is suitable for emission scenarios analysis and air quality management. 

The scenario analysis concluded that the most influential and crucial determinants of future development in organic farming are ... 

Based on our scenario analysis, hydrogen-fueled FCV factory costs are around 30% ( 4,000 per vehicle) higher than hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). 

Kobos, P.H., J. D. Erikson, and T. E. Drennen (2003). Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth. Contemporary Economic Policy, 21 (2), 200-217. 

Gronich, S. (2007) 2010-2025 Hydrogen Scenario Analysis , Presentation to the DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Advisory Committee, Washington, DC, February 20. 

Pure simulation approaches are proposed by Pitty et al. (2008) and Adhitya and Srini-vasan (2010). Pitty et al. (2008) propose a discrete-event simulation model for a refinery supply chain. Operational decisions such as unloading schedules and production planning are made based on simple priority rules. Various configurations of the modelled SC are studied and compared to reveal optimization potentials. This approach explicitly considers some details of ship and pipeline transports. Adhitya and Srinivasan (2010) describe a discrete-event simulation model for an SC producing and distributing lubricant additives. Here, batch production is modelled. Again, operational production decisions are made by priority rules and a scenario analysis is conducted to evaluate the effects of other priority... 

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