Scenario-Based Planning

The objective of the simulation study therefore was a comparison of the profitability and the flexibility between an existing standard multipurpose plant and different conceivable pipeless plant scenarios. Based on the production data of the existing plant, an optimal pipeless plant setup was developed and representative production plans were simulated and evaluated. 

One of the main aspects of the SNP planning process is the cost-based plan determination. The following cost types are used to build a cost model which represents the business scenario of value-based planning ... 

The functionality of a disaster plan can only be appreciated once it has been tested. Drills and exercises are the best way to test a plan and for PHNs to try on their role as a team member. Desktop exercises are valuable and convenient for in-house drills but a full-scale scenario-based drill involving all facets of the response plan, though expensive to run, offers the most rigorous way to ensure real-world success. 

A balanced and flexible approach can ultimately be complementary to the more formalized requirements process for capabilities-based planning. While desired general capabilities such as biological detection or physical protection can be identified and used to pull the development of the countermeasure scenarios, specific requirements such as which agents and what distance or to what exclusion level are not always necessary and may deter innovation particularly in fundamental research and development. When the goal is to achieve revolutionary capabilities, such guidance can deter innovation. 

Eppen, G.D., Martin, R.K., and Schrage, L.E. A Scenario-Based Approach to Capacity Planning. Operations Research, 37(4) 517—527, July-August 1989. 

In 1996, NASA specified an autonomous mission scenario called the New Milleimium Autonomy Architecture Prototype (NewMAAP). For that mission, a Remote Agent architecture that integrated constraint-based planning and scheduling, robust multi-threaded execution, and model-based mode identification and reconfiguration was developed to meet the NewMAAP requirements (Muscettola et al., 1998 Pell et al., 1996). This architecture was described by Muscettola in 1998 ... 

This report adopts the definition of catastrophic incident outlined in the Department of Homeland Security s National Response Plan—one that results in large numbers of casualties and/or displaced persons, possibly in the tens of thousands. In part due to lack of access to the results of off-site consequence models, this report discusses scenarios based on historical chemical incidents that serve as existence proofs (but not necessarily upper bounds) for the possible consequences. Using this approach it is easy to determine that a single chemical event could cause catastrophic casualties. For example, approximately 4,000 people died in the immediate aftermath... 

So I m sensitive to the point that you make— that maybe the case isn t proven. However, my point isn t really that. My point is related to the business of risk scenarios. When we first ran into problems in the nuclear industry, we tried to do careful calculations of risk, and risk-based planning of course is well known. The Moon mission, for example, was based on asking the astronauts what risk they would accept, and they said they would accept the same risk as getting killed by a car in Houston. I don t think they put it that way now, but that was the number they chose at the time, and that was the number that was used as the basis for risk calculations in the whole Moon program. 

Scenario based, so useful to identify and evaluate contingency plans. 

Allows site-specific inputs to the calculation of vulnerability zones and provides release scenarios Calculations are based on site-specific planning factors such as wind speed, stabihty class, and chemical toxicity. 

Scenario 3 This phase would roughly comprise of post-2020 period. In this period, the key event expected to happen would be larger penetration of light emitting diode (LED)-based lamps as their prices would become competitive as compared to present prices of CFL. The prices of CFL as a result are expected to fall further. It is thus desirable to implement the master plan in phases, as when the LED lighting becomes affordable at competitive price, the off take of CFLs/FTLs would slow down and plateau out. As LED lamps do not contain mercury, the elaborate recycling system would not be required for the end-of-life LED lamps. 

Planning Large Supply Chain Scenarios with Quant-based Combinatorial Optimization ... 

The quant-based combinatorial optimization differs from classical approaches in a number of ways. First, it is the strength of the quant-based approach to account for all constraints that prevail in a real-life planning scenario. Even though they usually come into effect in complex, interrelated and varying ways. 

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