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AMBIO scenario

We may compare this estimate of global burnout with that which may be derived from information in the OTA (1979) study. According to this study for a 1 Mt burst on Detroit, the main fire area would cover 180 km For the Ambio scenario this would extrapolate to 0.35 million km. ... [Pg.471]

Tab. VI - Compilation of optical depths over 60% of the 30-60°N latitude belt (6 X 10 m ), immediately following a nuclear war according to the Ambio scenario. The quantities ds, da and dext are the estimated average optical depths for scattering, absorption and total extinction, respectively, calculated for overhead sun conditions. Quantities within parantheses neglect smoke production by forest fires. Tab. VI - Compilation of optical depths over 60% of the 30-60°N latitude belt (6 X 10 m ), immediately following a nuclear war according to the Ambio scenario. The quantities ds, da and dext are the estimated average optical depths for scattering, absorption and total extinction, respectively, calculated for overhead sun conditions. Quantities within parantheses neglect smoke production by forest fires.
We have demonstrated our arguments on the basis of the Ambio (1982) war scenario, using much simplified rainout, aerosol physics and radiative equilibrium models. Our analysis of the amounts of burned materials and smoke production is likewise uncertain and no doubt can be much improved upon, but we have tried to avoid extreme assumptions. It is very hard to carry out sensitivity analyses in this new research field with so many uncertainties. It is quite possible to forward arguments for a much less severe impact of a nuclear war. For instance, one may propose... [Pg.493]

As assumed in Ambio s reference scenario, it is now believed that the most likely nuclear war is one in which few weapons having yields greater than 1 Mt are used, with preference given to the detonation of large numbers of smaller yield weapons. For such a nuclear war, very htde NOx would be injected above 15 km into the stratosphere by the nuclear birrsts, and thus depletion of the ozone layer would not occur as a direct result of the explosions. Nonetheless, other profound effects on the atmosphere can be expected. [Pg.126]

With regard to direct NOx formation in nuclear explosions, we consider two nuclear war scenarios. Scenario I is Ambio s reference scenario [3]. In this scenario bombs having a total yield of 5750 Mt are detonated. The latimdinal and vertical distributions of the 5.7 x 10 molecules of nitric oxide produced in these explosions are determined by the weapon sizes and targets projected for this scenario. Since most of the weapons have yields less than 1 Mt, most of the NOx is deposited in the troposphere, and the effect on the chemistry of the stratosphere is much less than if the bomb debris were deposited mainly in the stratosphere. The assumed NO input pattern for the Scenario I war is provided in Table 5.1. [Pg.127]

Advisors, Ambio, this issue (see Ambio s Reference Scenario). [Pg.149]


See other pages where AMBIO scenario is mentioned: [Pg.459]    [Pg.469]    [Pg.470]    [Pg.471]    [Pg.474]    [Pg.476]    [Pg.485]    [Pg.494]    [Pg.459]    [Pg.469]    [Pg.470]    [Pg.471]    [Pg.474]    [Pg.476]    [Pg.485]    [Pg.494]    [Pg.459]    [Pg.461]    [Pg.496]    [Pg.137]    [Pg.140]   
See also in sourсe #XX -- [ Pg.459 , Pg.460 , Pg.469 , Pg.474 , Pg.485 ]




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