Assessing Threats

The energy sector views threat analysis broadly, to encompass natural events, criminal acts, insider threats, and foreign and domestic terrorism. Natural events are typically addressed as part of emergency response and business continuity planning. 

In the context of risk assessment, the threat component of risk analysis is calculated based on the likelihood that an asset will be disrupted or attacked. Such information is essential for conducting meaningful vulnerability and risk assessments. Therefore, the energy sector strongly believes that relevant and timely threat information must be disseminated whenever possible. A number of sector representatives hold national security clearances that facilitate the sharing of classified threat information. 

The DHS Homeland Infrastructure Threat and Risk Analysis Center (HITRAC), which conducts integrated threat analysis for all critical infrastructure and key resources (CI/KR) sectors, will work in parmership with owners and operators and 

Other federal, state, and local government agencies to ensure that suitable threat information is made available. Furthermore, the same level of parmership must exist within all levels of federal, state, and local law enforcement. 

The following types of threat products provided by HITRAC are needed for the 

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While work on improved spectrometric methods continues, imaging techniques are and will continue to be powerful sensing tools to help guard against threats. Potential advantages of improved imaging techniques include the ability to assess threats in real time (allowing ample time for effective countermeasures) and the improved capability to detect threats at a distance before populations and valued assets become affected. 

Intent A conrse of action an adversary intends to follow. When assessing threats, security professionals need to evaluate intent as well as capabilities. To determine... 

Agent-specific information on risk assessment/threat perception by individuals and groups, and on risk communication by public officials. 

Develop health education and crisis response materials for the general public, including specific communication on chemical or biological agents. Additional information is needed on risk assessment/threat perception by individuals and groups and on risk communication by public officials, especially the roles of both the mass media and the Internet in the transmission of anxiety (or confidence). Some information is available in ERA studies of pollutants and toxic waste, but there is little or no systematically collected data on fears and anxieties related to the possibility of purposefully introduced disease. 

This article will investigate a methodology for assessing threats and vulnerabilities to a maritime transportation system, where LNG transportation is used as a case. The Industrialized world, thereby including the European Union, USA, Korea and Japan, is increasingly dependent on imported natural gas, whereof an increasing share of these imports is liquefied natural gas [LNG]. 

Security management process Security requirements specification Security architecture design Security risk assessment (threat model)... 

Reddy, M., Borum, R., Berglund, J., Vossekuil, B., Fein, R., and Modzeleski, W. (2001). Evaluating risk for targeted violence in schools Comparing risk assessment, threat assessment and other approaches. Psychology in the Schools, 38,157-172. 

National threat levels are intended to provide a guide to the current likelihood of a terrorist attack. Decisions regarding the setting of the threat level are taken by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC), created in 2003 as the UK s centre for terrorism analysis and assessment. Threat levels are regularly reviewed in the light of the available intelligence and can be found on the Home Office website. The possible levels are given below. 

Toxicity Bioassay. Ninety-six hour acute toxicity tests were conducted on the effluent streams of major industries. A static renewal procedure was used in which waste waters of various dilutions were renewed at 24 hour intervals over a 96 hour period. Rainbow trout was used as the test organism. Tests were conducted at 13°C in 20 liter aquaria according to standard procedures (22), Results are summarized in Table 8. Chemical and toxicity test results indicate that the trace element quantities identified in Table 8 are not acutely toxic under the prevailing conditions and unlikely to pose an acute threat to aquatic life. In this case a chronic toxicity assessment would require additional research. 

The sheer complexity of environmental mixtnres of EDCs, possible interactive effects, and capacity of some EDCs to bioaccumulate (e.g., in fish, steroidal estrogens and alkylphenolic chemicals have been shown to be concentrated up to 40,000-fold in the bile [Larsson et al. 1999 Gibson et al. 2005]) raises questions about the adequacy of the risk assessment process and safety margins established for EDCs. There is little question that considerable further work is needed to generate a realistic pictnre of the mixture effects and exposure threats of EDCs to wildlife populations than has been derived from studies on individual EDCs. Further discussion of the toxicity of mixtures will be found in Chapter 2, Section 2.6. 

TAetection of the highly potent impurity, 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) in the herbicide 2,4,5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4,5-T), necessitated an environmental assessment of the impact of this contaminate. Information was rapidly needed on movement, persistence, and plant uptake to determine whether low concentrations reaching plants, soils, and water posed any threat to man and his environment. Because of the extreme toxicity of TCDD, utmost precautions were taken to reduce or minimize the risk of exposure to laboratory personnel. Synthesis of uniformly labeled C-TCDD by Muelder and Shadoff (I) greatly facilitated TCDD detection in soil and plant experiments. For unlabeled experiments it seemed wise to use only small quantities of diluted solutions in situations where decontamination was feasible and to rely on the sensitivity afforded by electron capture gas chromatography... 

With respect to sampling, sufficient numbers of environmental samples should be obtained to permit reliable statistical and biologic Interpretation of results. At the same time, the samples collected should be from environmental locations where human exposure Is most likely to occur (or did occur. If questions of past exposures require assessment). They should also be targeted for those environmental media which can be expected to have the greatest potential for human exposure and absorption. Finally, the samples must be obtained and preserved so that the chemicals which pose the greatest threat for human health In terms of toxicity and tissue persistence can be accurately measured. 

Create a validated threat assessment document for air transportation spaces and keep it updated ... 

Identify potential applications for technology in transportation security with a focus on likely threats derived from threat analyses that drive security system requirements. Review security system developments structured to meet the changing threat environment. Assess government and commercial industry plans designed to address these threats. 

An overarching goal of the Committee on Assessment of Security Technologies for Transportation is to provide timely reports that meet TSA s priorities for defeating terrorist threats. The committee judged that this could best be done by issuing a series of short reports on chosen technological applications. In consultation with TSA, the committee selected four topics for review, of which this report is the second ... 

Once a potential release has been discovered, the information is entered into the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Information System (CERCLIS), a computerized database used to track hazardous substance sites. After being entered into CERCLIS, each site undergoes a preliminary assessment (PA) to determine whether the site poses a potential hazard and whether further action is necessary. If the threat is immediate, a removal action may be conducted. 

Remedial actions are longer-term response actions that ultimately represent the final remedy for a site and generally are more expensive and of a longer duration than removals. This is because the remedial actions are intended to provide permanent solutions to hazardous substance threats. It is possible that both removal and remedial actions may be taken at the same site. In the event that longer-term cleanup is necessary, the site is referred to the remedial program for further investigation and assessment. 

U.S. EPA may list a waste as hazardous for any and all of the above reasons. The majority of listed wastes fall into the toxic waste category. To decide if a waste should be a toxic listed waste, U.S. EPA first determines whether it typically contains harmful chemical constituents. An appendix to RCRA contains a list of chemical compounds or elements that scientific studies have shown to have toxic, carcinogenic, mutagenic, or teratogenic effects on humans or other life forms. If a waste contains chemical constituents found on the appendix list, U.S. EPA then evaluates 11 other factors to determine if the wastestream is likely to pose a threat in the absence of special restrictions on its handling. These additional considerations include a risk assessment and study of past cases of damage caused by the waste. 

Soil contamination was not perceived as a problem until the 1970s, when incidents in the U.S. and Europe (Love Canal, NY Times Beach, MO Lekkerkerk, the Netherlands) awakened public awareness about the serious threats posed to human health and the environment by abandoned or improperly managed hazardous wastes. In response to the growing public concern, the U.S., the Netherlands, and a number of other European countries started a systematic effort beginning in 1980 to identify potentially contaminated sites, assess the level of contamination, establish priorities for remediation based on risk assessment studies and gradually implement the required remedial actions. 

A second major public concern is over nuclear wastes. Most experts believe that it is possible to dispose of these in a manner that poses little threat to the environment and human health, given the small volume of the spent fuel, the decay with time of the radionuclides, and the potential effectiveness of engineered and natural barriers. The success that is likely to be achieved is examined through Total System Performance Assessments (TSPA) (see, e.g, OCWRM, 1998). 

Clark, D.R., Jr. 1992. Qrganochlorines and heavy metals in 17-year cicadas pose no apparent dietary threat to birds. Environ. Monitor. Assess. 20 47-54. 

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