Parameters, estimation

Parameter Estimation. WeibuU parameters can be estimated using the usual statistical procedures however, a computer is needed to solve readily the equations. A computer program based on the maximum likelihood method is presented in Reference 22. Graphical estimation can be made on WeibuU paper without the aid of a computer however, the results caimot be expected to be as accurate and consistent. 

UNIQUAC equation with binary parameters estimated by supplementing binary VLE data with ternary tie-line data. 

I. The next card gives the initial parameter estimates. 

Bard, Y., Nonlinear Parameter Estimation, Academic Press, New York (1974).  

While many methods for parameter estimation have been proposed, experience has shown some to be more effective than others. Since most phenomenological models are nonlinear in their adjustable parameters, the best estimates of these parameters can be obtained from a formalized method which properly treats the statistical behavior of the errors associated with all experimental observations. For reliable process-design calculations, we require not only estimates of the parameters but also a measure of the errors in the parameters and an indication of the accuracy of the data. 

Beck, J. V., Arnold, K. J., "Parameter Estimation in Engineering and Science," John Wiley Sons, New York (1977).  

To illustrate the criterion for parameter estimation, let 1, 2, and 3 represent the three components in a mixture. Components 1 and 2 are only partially miscible components 1 and 3, as well as components 2 and 3 are totally miscible. The two binary parameters for the 1-2 binary are determined from mutual-solubility data and remain fixed. Initial estimates of the four binary parameters for the two completely miscible binaries, 1-3 and 2-3, are determined from sets of binary vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE) data. The final values of these parameters are then obtained by fitting both sets of binary vapor-liquid equilibrium data simultaneously with the limited ternary tie-line data. 

Many well-known models can predict ternary LLE for type-II systems, using parameters estimated from binary data alone. Unfortunately, similar predictions for type-I LLE systems are not nearly as good. In most cases, representation of type-I systems requires that some ternary information be used in determining optimum binary parameter. 

Hofmann, Tndustrial process kinetics and parameter estimation , in ACS Advances in Chemlstiy, 109, 519-534 (1972) "Kinetic data analysis and parameter estimation , in de Lasa, ed.. Chemical Reactor De.sign and Technology, Martinus Nijhoff, 1986, pp. 69-105. 

Example 7. In order to illustrate graphical parameter estimation, five faUure times are considered 24,000 km, 39,000 km, 52,000 km, 64,000 km, and 82,000 km. These times-to-faUure were obtained by placing five items on test and allowing them to go to faUure. 

Unfortunately, many commonly used methods for parameter estimation give only estimates for the parameters and no measures of their uncertainty. This is usually accomplished by calculation of the dependent variable at each experimental point, summation of the squared differences between the calculated and measured values, and adjustment of parameters to minimize this sum. Such methods routinely ignore errors in the measured independent variables. For example, in vapor-liquid equilibrium data reduction, errors in the liquid-phase mole fraction and temperature measurements are often assumed to be absent. The total pressure is calculated as a function of the estimated parameters, the measured temperature, and the measured liquid-phase mole fraction. 

Input information includes the known values of T and [Xi], as well as the equation-of-state and G -expression parameters. Estimates are also needed of P and [yj], the quantities to be evaluated, and these require some preliminaiy calciilations  

Figure 4-14. Predicted liquid-liquid equilibria for a typical type-II system shows good agreement with experimental data, using parameters estimated from binary data alone.

When there is significant random error in all the variables, as in this example, the maximum-likelihood method can lead to better parameter estimates than those obtained by other methods. When Barker s method was used to estimate the van Laar parameters for the acetone-methanol system from these data, it was estimated that = 0.960 and A j = 0.633, compared with A 2 0.857 and A2- = 0.681 using the method of maximum likelihood. Barker s method uses only the P-T-x data and assumes that the T and x measurements are error free. 

In the maximum-likelihood method used here, the "true" value of each measured variable is also found in the course of parameter estimation. The differences between these "true" values and the corresponding experimentally measured values are the residuals (also called deviations). When there are many data points, the residuals can be analyzed by standard statistical methods (Draper and Smith, 1966). If, however, there are only a few data points, examination of the residuals for trends, when plotted versus other system variables, may provide valuable information. Often these plots can indicate at a glance excessive experimental error, systematic error, or "lack of fit." Data points which are obviously bad can also be readily detected. If the model is suitable and if there are no systematic errors, such a plot shows the residuals randomly distributed with zero means. This behavior is shown in Figure 3 for the ethyl-acetate-n-propanol data of Murti and Van Winkle (1958), fitted with the van Laar equation. 

Subroutine VLDTA2. VLDTA2 loads the binary vapor-liquid equilibrium data to be correlated. If the data are in units other than those used internally, the correct conversions are made here. This subroutine also reads the estimated standard deviations for the measured variables and the initial parameter estimates. All input data are printed for verification. 

The method used here is based on a general application of the maximum-likelihood principle. A rigorous discussion is given by Bard (1974) on nonlinear-parameter estimation based on the maximum-likelihood principle. The most important feature of this method is that it attempts properly to account for all measurement errors. A discussion of the background of this method and details of its implementation are given by Anderson et al. (1978). 

Keywords, protein folding, tertiary structure, potential energy surface, global optimization, empirical potential, residue potential, surface potential, parameter estimation, density estimation, cluster analysis, quadratic programming 

Figure 4-16. Representation of ternary liquid-liquid equilibria using the UNIQUAC equation is improved by incorporating ternary tie-line data into binary-parameter estimation. Representation of binary VLB shows small loss of accuracy. ---- Binary

Sensitivity Analysis When solving differential equations, it is frequently necessary to know the solution as well as the sensitivity of the solution to the value of a parameter. Such information is useful when doing parameter estimation (to find the best set of parameters for a model) and for deciding if a parameter needs to be measured accurately. See Ref. 105. 

Unfortunately, good binary data are often not available, and no model, including the modified UNIQUAC equation, is entirely adequate. Therefore, we require a calculation method which allows utilization of some ternary data in the parameter estimation such that the ternary system is well represented. A method toward that end is described in the next section. 

Measurements have been made in a static laboratory set-up. A simulation model for generating supplementary data has been developed and verified. A statistical data treatment method has been applied to estimate tracer concentration from detector measurements. Accuracy in parameter estimation in the range of 5-10% has been obtained. 

The primary purpose for expressing experimental data through model equations is to obtain a representation that can be used confidently for systematic interpolations and extrapolations, especially to multicomponent systems. The confidence placed in the calculations depends on the confidence placed in the data and in the model. Therefore, the method of parameter estimation should also provide measures of reliability for the calculated results. This reliability depends on the uncertainties in the parameters, which, with the statistical method of data reduction used here, are estimated from the parameter variance-covariance matrix. This matrix is obtained as a last step in the iterative calculation of the parameters. 

Thus, a list of 1 5 descriptors was calculated for these purposes, as described below. The partition coefficient log P (calculated by a method based on the Gho.sc/Crip-pen approach [11]) (see also Chapter X, Section 1.1 in the Handbook) was calculated because it affects the solubility dramatically [17, 18]. All the other descriptors were calculated with the program PETRA (Parameter Estimation for the Treatment of Reactivity Applications) [28.  

After having proved the principles a dynamic test facility has been constructed. In this facility it is possible to inject 3 tracers in a flownng liquid consisting of air, oil and water. By changing the relative amounts of the different components it is possible to explore the phase diagram and asses the limits for the measurement principle. Experiments have confirmed the accuracy in parameter estimation to be below 10%, which is considered quite satisfactorily for practical applications. The method will be tested on site at an offshore installation this summer. 

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