Quantitative Hazard Risk Assessment

Tliis part of tlie book reviews and develops quantitative metliods for tlie analysis of liazard conditions in terms of the fiequency of occurrence of unfavorable consequences. Uncertainty characterizes not only tlie transformation of a liazard into an accident, disaster, or catastrophe, but also the effects of such a transformation. Measurement of uncertainty falls witliin the purview of mathematical probability. According, Chapter 19 presents fundamental concepts and tlieorems of probability used in risk assessment. Chapter 20 discusses special probability distributions and teclmiques pertinent to risk assessment, and Chapter 21 presents actual case studies illustrating teclmiques in liazard risk assessment tliat use probability concepts, theorems, and special distributions. 

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Waters, M., and Jackson, M. (2008). Databases applicable to quantitative hazard/risk assessment— Towards a predictive systems toxicology. Toxicol Appl Pharmacol 233, 34-44. 

WestreU, T., Schormingen, C., Stenstrom, T.A., Ashbolt, NJ., 2004. QMRA (quantitative microbial risk assessment) and HACCP (hazard analysis and critical control points) for management of pathogens in wastewater and sewage sludge treatment and reuse. Water Science and Technology 2, 23—30. 

Process Hazards Analysis. Analysis of processes for unrecogni2ed or inadequately controUed ha2ards (see Hazard analysis and risk assessment) is required by OSHA (36). The principal methods of analysis, in an approximate ascending order of intensity, are what-if checklist failure modes and effects ha2ard and operabiHty (HAZOP) and fault-tree analysis. Other complementary methods include human error prediction and cost/benefit analysis. The HAZOP method is the most popular as of 1995 because it can be used to identify ha2ards, pinpoint their causes and consequences, and disclose the need for protective systems. Fault-tree analysis is the method to be used if a quantitative evaluation of operational safety is needed to justify the implementation of process improvements. 

Hazard and Risk Assessment Tools The hazard and risk assessment tools used vary with the stage of the project from the early design stage to plant operations. Many techniques are available, both quahtative and quantitative, some of which are hsted in the following section. Reviews done early in projects often result in easier, more effective changes. 

Hazard analysis (HAZAN) is a quantitative way of assessing the likelihood of failure. Other names associated with this technique are risk analysis, quantitative risk assessment (QRA), and probability risk assessment (PRA). Keltz [44] expressed the view that HAZAN is a selective technique while HAZOP can be readily applied to new design and major modification. Some limitations of HAZOP are its inability to detect every weakness in design such as in plant layout, or miss hazards due to leaks on lines that pass through or close to a unit but cany material that is not used on that unit. In any case, hazards should... 

If there are specific data germane to the assumption of dose-additivity (e g., if two compounds arc present at the same site and it is known that the combination is five times more toxic than the sum of the toxicitics for the two compounds), then tire development of the hazard index should be modified accordingly. The reader can refer to the EPA (1986b) mi.xiure guidelines for discussion of a hazjird index equation that incorporates quantitative interaction data. If data on chemical interactions are available, but arc not adequate to support a quantitative assessment, note the information in the assumptions being documented for the risk assessment. 

Quantitative risk assessment is now used extensively for determination of chemical and microbial risks in food. This concept helps to systematically and scientifically judge whether certain hazardous compounds may reach unacceptable risk levels when ingested. Quantitative risk assessment can support both quality design and quality assurance but, we discuss it from the assurance perspective. In the past decade, much attention has been paid to assessment of microbial risks due to then-typical differences as compared to chemical risks ... 

Dose-response assessment is the process of obtaining quantitative information about the probability of human illness following exposure to a hazard it is the translation of exposure into harm. Dose-response curves have been determined for some hazards. The curves show the relationship of dose exposure and the probabihty of a response. Since vahdated dose-response relationships are scarce, various other inputs are used to underpin the hazard characterization phase of risk assessment. 

Risk characterization is the last step in the risk assessment procedure. It is the quantitative or semi-quantitative estimation, including uncertainties, of frequency and severity of known or potential adverse health effects in a given population based on the previous steps. Risk characterization is the step that integrates information on hazard and exposure to estimate the magnitude of a risk. Comparison of the numerical output of hazard characterization with the estimated intake will give an indication of whether the estimated intake is a health concern. ... 

This chapter provides general information for performing qualitative or quantitative risk assessments on buildings in process plants. For detailed guidance on risk assessment techniques, the user is referred to other CCPS books on this subject, including Reference 3, Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation Procedures, Second Edition, and Reference 4, Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis. 

The terminology used varies considerably. Hazard identification and risk assessment are sometimes combined into a general category called hazard evaluation. Risk assessment is sometimes called hazard analysis. A risk assessment procedure that determines probabilities is frequently called probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), whereas a procedure that determines probability and consequences is called quantitative risk analysis (QRA). 

Risk assessment is the procedure in which the risks posed by inherent hazards involved in processes or situations are estimated either quantitatively or qualitatively. In the life cycle of a chemical for instance, risks can arise during manufacture,... 

The dangerous properties of acute toxicity, irritation, corrosivity, sensitisation, repeated-dose toxicity and CMR are evaluated in terms of their potential toxic effects to workers, consumers and man exposed indirectly via the environment, based on the use for each stage in the lifecycle of the substance from which exposure can occur. Risk assessment is also required if there are reasonable grounds for concern for potential hazardous properties, e.g., from positive in vitro mutagenicity tests or structural alerts. The risk assessment involves comparing the estimated occupational or consumer exposure levels with the exposure levels at which no adverse effects are anticipated. This may be a quantitative risk assessment, based on the ratio between the two values, or a qualitative evaluation. The principles of human health risk assessment are covered in detail by Illing (a.30) and more briefly in Chapter 7 of (73). 

The approach described is appropriate for assuring process safety for the preliminary design and is commonly used in industry where hazardous materials are handled. The committee further notes that a full-scale quantitative risk assessment (QRA) will be required in conjunction with the completion of the final design to assure that all process safety issues have been fully addressed. 

William R. Rhyne received a B.S. in nuclear engineering from the University of Tennessee and M.S. and D.Sc. degrees in nuclear engineering from the University of Virginia. Dr. Rhyne is currently an independent consultant and earlier cofounded H R Technical Associates, Inc., where he remains a member of the board of directors. He has extensive experience in risk and safety analyses associated with nuclear and chemical processes and with the transport of hazardous nuclear materials and chemicals. From 1984 to 1987, he was the project manager and principal investigator for a probabilistic accident analysis of transporting obsolete chemical munitions. Dr. Rhyne has authored or coauthored numerous publications and reports in nuclear and chemical safety and risk analysis areas and is author of the book Hazardous Materials Transportation Risk Analysis Quantitative Approaches for Truck and Train. He is a former member of the NRC Transportation Research Board Hazardous Materials Committee, the Society for Risk Assessment, the American Nuclear... 

Fault tree analysis is based on a graphical, logical description of the failure mechanisms of a system. Before construction of a fault tree can begin, a specific definition of the top event is required for example the release of propylene from a refrigeration system. A detailed understanding of the operation of the system, its component parts, and the role of operators and possible human errors is required. Refer to Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation (CCPS, 1992) and Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Assessment (CCPS, 2000). 

A vital objective of future European chemicals policy is to avoid uncontrolled handling of hazardous substances. Assessment of each individual application on the basis of the individual substances involved (as provided for by the current regulatory system) is not an apt strategy, as the number of assessment and management cases that it produces is much too high. Quantitative risk analyses are only taken into account in the case of substances with clearly definable effect thresholds and controllable application conditions. For 90% of the market actors the particular product or application system must possess intrinsically safe properties, as most companies have neither closed systems nor the reqnired skills to deal with hazardons snbstances. 

It is mentioned that the TTC concept has been incorporated in the risk assessment processes in a number of regulatory schemes as a scientifically sound tool to justify waiving or generation of animal data. It is also stressed that, in contrast to approaches such as read-across or chemical categorization, the use of the TTC is not focused or limited to the identification of potential hazards but also provides a quantitative estimate of potency. 

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