Probabilistic risk assessments

Nuclear Regulatory Commission, PRA Procedures Guide—A Guide to the Performance of Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR-2300, Jantiaiy 1983. 

Core damage and containment performance was assessed for accident sequences, component failure, human error, and containment failure modes relative to the design and operational characteristics of the various reactor and containment types. The IPEs were compared to standards for quality probabilistic risk assessment. Methods, data, boundary conditions, and assumptions are considered to understand the differences and similarities observed. 

EPRI NP-5664 is a study based on interviews of personnel at 10 utilities and 15 NRC personnel regarding the usefulness of PSA (they use the term PRA - probabilistic risk assessment). The general utility motivation for using PSA is to demonstrate an acceptably low level of risk to the NRC. Some utilities applied PSA to individual systems, functions, or issues. These smaller [ir(>grams served to train a PSA cadre and introduce PSA to other utility personnel and management. 

PRA - probabilistic risk assessment/probabilistic safety assessment, synonymous with PSA. The PRA Procedures Guide is NUREG/CR-23(X). PRA was the original term but became probabilistic safety assessment to avoid the negative implication of risk. ... 

Murphy, J. A., Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Reference Document. September 1984. 

Atkinson, S. A. et al, 1993, Advanced Test Reactor Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Pr<... 

Chu, T. L. et al., 1990, Quantification of the Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the High Flux Beam Reactoi (HFBR) at Brookhaven National Laboratory, ANS Topical Meeting, The Safety, Siauis and Future of Non-Commercial Reactors and Irradiation Facilities, Boise, ID, Sepiember Ol - October 4, 1990. 

GAO, 1985, Probabilistic Risk Assessment An Emerging Aid to Nuclear Power Plant Safety Regulation, GAO/RCED-85-11, June,... 

Joksimovich, Y. et al., 1983, A Review of Some Early Large-Scale Probabilistic Risk Assessments, EPRINP-3265, October. 

Joscliek, H, 1., 1981, Risk Assessment in the Chemical Industry, ANS/ENS Topical Vlecimg on Probabilistic Risk Assessment, ANS, Sept. 

Neill, D.T. et al., 1990b, Omega West Reactor, Level 1, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Idaho State University, College of Engineering, LANL, LA-UR-90-962. 

NS AC-60, 1984, Oconee PRA A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Oconee Unit 3, EPRI/Diike Power Co, June. 

Roger, C., J. L. Boccio, and M. A. Azarm, 1985, Evaluation of Current Methodology Employed in Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Fire Events at Nuclear Power Plants, BNL report A-3710, February. 

The last three decades have seen the development of a new science to help us better understand the risk of events about which there is often very little information. The reason there is interest in such a science is that there are a great many societal benefits from activities that involve risk risk that if properly managed through better understanding can greatly benefit the quality of all life on the planet earth, both plant and animal. That science is quantitative risk assessment, also known by such names as probabilistic risk assessment and probabilistic salety assessment, the latter being the preferred name for this text. Probabilistic safety assessment divides the risk question into three questions "What can go wrong " "How likely is it " and "What are the consequences "... 

I am a physicist who switched to nuclear engineering for my Ph D. My introduction to PSA was as an original participant in the Reactor Safety Study in 1972. Material for this book was first gathered in 1974 for a workshop on what to expect in WASH-1400 (the results of the Reactor Safety Study). Materials were gathered over the years for EPRI, Savannah River Laboratory, and other workshops. A culmination was in 1988 with "Probabilistic Risk Assessment in the Nuclear Power Industry" with Robert Hall as coauthor. This book updates these materials and adds material on PSA in the chemical process industry. I prepared the material for printing using a word processor... 

Banks, W., Wells, J. E. (1992). A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Human Reliability Analysis Methods. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis, Human Factors, and Human Reliability in Process Safety. New York American Institute of Chemical Engineers, CCPS. 

Section 4.6 Nonprocess Equipment Data Bases Section 4.7 Nonprocess Equipment Data Sources Section 4.8 Nuclear Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRA)... 

Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Limerick Generating Station... 

U.S. Nuclear Power Plants. Big Rock Point Probabilistic Risk Assessment. 4.8-1... 

Leverenz, F. L. and D. C. Cox. Probabilistic Risk Assessment Course Documentation, Volume 6, NUREG/CR-4350, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, 1985. 

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) A conunonly used term in the nuclear industry to describe the quantitative evaluation of risk. 

Giddings, J.M., Solomon, K.R., and Maund, S.J. (2001). Probabilistic risk assessment of cotton pyrethroids.il Aquatic mesocosm and held studies. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 20, 660-668. 

Duvall SE, Barron MG. 2000. A screening level probabilistic risk assessment of mercury in Florida Everglades food webs. Ecotoxicol Environ Saf 47 298-305. 

Moore DRJ, Sample BE, Suter GW, Parkhurst BR, Teed RS. 1999. A probabilistic risk assessment of the effects of methyhnercury and PCBs on mink and kingfishers along East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. Environ Toxicol Chem 18 2941-2953. 

While these objectives for method sensitivity may seem ambitious, experience has shown that data from such studies are much more usable for supporting fate and transport models (development and/or validation efforts) that may have to be used when more precise and geographically detailed probabilistic risk assessments become necessary. 

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