Import risk analysis

Risk analysis in the development of biosecurity programmes 325 Table 12.1 Types of import risk analysis for aquatic animal health... 

Table 12.2 The import risk analysis (IRA) process (based on the Australian and New Zealand published IRA procedures)...

BALDOCK c. (2004), Disease surveillance. In J.R. Arthnr and M.G. Bondad-Reantaso. (eds.) Capacity and awareness building on import risk analysis for aquatic animals. Proceedings of the Workshops held 1-6 April 2002 in Ban ok, Thailand and 12-17 August 2002 in Mazatlan, Mexico. APEC FWG 01/2002, NACA, Bangkok, 37-42. 

BIOSECURITY AUSTRALIA. (2009a), Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry 2009, Import Risk Analysis Handbook 20(17 (update 2009), Canberra. Available at http //www.daff.gov.au/ data/assets/pdf file/0003/ 1177833/IRA handbook 2009 FINAL FOR WEB.pdf (accessed on 30th March 2011). 

KAHN S.A. WILSON D.W. PERERA R.P. HAYDER H. and GERRITY S.E. (1999b), Import Risk Analysis on Live Ornamental Finfish. Anstrahan Quarantine and Inspection... 

MURRAY N. (2002), Handbook on Animal Import Risk Analysis. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Biosecurity New Zealand. Available at http //www.biosecurity. govt.nz/pests-diseases/animals/risk/import-risk-analysis-handbook.htm (accessed on 30th March 2011). 

MURRAY N. MACDIARMID S.C. WOOLDRIDGE M. GUMMOW B. MORLEY R.S. WEBER S.E. GiovANNiNi A. and WILSON D. (2004), OIF Handbook on Import Risk Analysis for Animals and Animal Products - Introduction and qualitative risk analysis. Paris, France QIE. 

WHITTINGTON R J and CHONG R (2007), Global trade in ornamental fish from an Australian perspective the case for revised import risk analysis and management strategies, Prev Vet Med, 81, 92-116. 

A variability risk table (as shown in Figure 2.28 for the eover support leg analysis above) is a more elfieient and traeeable way of presenting the results of the first part of the analysis. A blank variability risks results table is provided in Appendix VII. It eatalogues all the important design information, sueh as the toleranee plaeed on the eharaeteristie, the eharaeteristie dimension itself, surfaee roughness value, and then allows the praetitioner to input the results determined from the variability risks analysis, both manufaeturing and assembly. 

RISKMAN is an integrated Microsoft Windows , personal computer software system for [H. i forming quantitative risk analysis. Used for PSAs for aerospace, nuclear power, and chemical [iroccsses, it has five main modules Data Analysis, Systems Analysis, External Events Analysis, Event Tree Analysis, and Important Sequences. There are also modules for software system maintenance, backup, restoration, software updates, printer font, and page control. PEG has also integrated the fault tree programs CAFTA, SETS, NRCCUT, and IRRAS into RISKMAN. 

A fairly detailed risk analysis of fires was in the Clinch River Breeder Reactor (CRBR) Risk Assessment Study, 1977. In this study, FMEA was used to identify important fire locations for a wide variety of combustibles, including cables, oil, and sodium. The resulting estimate of the frequency of fire-induced core melt, 5E-7 per reactor-year, is substantially below the estimates discussed above. 

Prioritize Safety Improvements. This uses the detailed analysis (2) to identify items having high risk importance. Engineering analysis identifies and costs candidate improvements which are selected on the bn. o of risk reduction for a given cost. ... 

The Chemical Process Industry (CPI) uses various quantitative and qualitative techniques to assess the reliability and risk of process equipment, process systems, and chemical manufacturing operations. These techniques identify the interactions of equipment, systems, and persons that have potentially undesirable consequences. In the case of reliability analyses, the undesirable consequences (e.g., plant shutdown, excessive downtime, or production of off-specification product) are those incidents which reduce system profitability through loss of production and increased maintenance costs. In the case of risk analyses, the primary concerns are human injuries, environmental impacts, and system damage caused by occurrence of fires, explosions, toxic material releases, and related hazards. Quantification of risk in terms of the severity of the consequences and the likelihood of occurrence provides the manager of the system with an important decisionmaking tool. By using the results of a quantitative risk analysis, we are better able to answer such questions as, Which of several candidate systems poses the least risk Are risk reduction modifications necessary and What modifications would be most effective in reducing risk ... 

Most facilities keep records on the operating status of the plant, usually in the form of monthly status reports or a chart that displays production level versus days, weeks, or months over the plant life. Changes in plant status are generally noted by date on either of these two data sources, but may also be logged separately. This information is important so that an accurate count of the number of hours spent in each plant state (operating versus nonoperating) and number of demands due to plant state changes can be used for reliability and risk analysis. 

In the minds of all authors who favour the estimation of flashpoints based on a theoretical model rather than experimental results this approach was temporary and only supposed to be used during the period used by commissions of experts to lay down a standard technique for the determination of flashpoints. As has already been seen, it is less likely that this method will be used in the near future. This is the reason why we think estimation techniques have to be part of the priority tools of risk analysis in work on chemical risk prevention. Why is such work on estimation important We will see later that flashpoint is the cruciai parameter in order to establish the ievel of fire hazard of a substance. 

TTiese results are disappointing. However, the comments made after analysing some examples show that this approach usefully complements the sole observation of experimental figures and codes offered by the regulations. But what seems most important here is the fact that the work earned out using regression can serve as a diagnosis. Its poor quality oniy reflects the incoh rence of experimented data. Both experimental and estimation approaches complement each other and should be considered as two essential elements in risk analysis. 

Let us now turn our attention to the main steps of any procedure constructed to anticipate or respond to the risk analysis requirements set forth by the statutes reviewed above or voluntarily established as product standards by industries. It is important to note that this type of procedure is a technical means to arrive at a quantitative estimate. The decisions regarding the acceptability of the result is sociopolitical and is, therefore, beyond the scope of this discussion. 

Some will remark that our presentation is not complete or that some details are missing. The purpose of this book, however, is not to be complete but to provide a starting point for those who wish to learn about this important area. This book, for example, has a companion text titled Health and Environmental Risk Analysis that extends the topics relevant to risk analysis. 

It is most important that the whole life cycle of a process plant can be evaluated on safety. Safety and risk analyses evaluate the probability of a risk to appear, and the decisions of necessary preventative actions are made after results of an analysis. The aim of the risk estimation is to support the decision making on plant localization, alternative processes and plant layout. Suokas and Kakko (1993) have introduced steps of a safety and risk analysis in Figure 2. The safety and risk analysis can be done on several levels. The level on which the analysis is stopped depends on the complexity of the object for analysis and the risk potential. 

Risk is defined as a measure of human injury, environmental damage, or economic loss in terms of both the incident likelihood (probability) and the magnitude of the loss or injury (consequence) (AICHE/CCPS, Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis, 2d ed., American Institute of Chemical Engineers, New York, 2000, pp. 5-6). It is important that both likelihood and consequence be included in risk. For instance, seat belt use is based on a reduction in the consequences of an accident. However, many people argue against seat belts based on probabilities, which is an incorrect application of the risk concept. 

The ideal solution is to perform a risk analysis for each item in a facility to determine the probable maximum fire and explosive range the location may produce. The calculations and expense to accomplish such a task today does not appear to justify a unilateral application to every piece of equipment at a facility. Consequentially the use of a spacing table for a facility design provides for an economical and expedient solution. This is especially important when several options on the layout of the facility are available. However in some instances the use of risk analysis may demonstrate less spacing is necessary that what a spacing chart requires. 

There is a balance to be drawn between risks. Looking at nitrite again, this ion has been used since the Middle Ages to preserve meat. It is the preservative in saltpetre which helps preserve cured meats and stop those who eat them getting botulism. There has been much research to find an alternative to nitrite as it can react with some amines to form carcinogenic nitrosamines. Risk analysis, reviewed in Chapter 4, is an important tool in controlling the use of additives. 

Many factors can influence the accuracy of intake estimates and it is of primary importance to ensure that the assumptions made and data used are relevant to the specific risk analysis.6 The selection of inappropriate data and... 

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