Primary forecast

Keywords compressibility, primary-, secondary- and enhanced oil-recovery, drive mechanisms (solution gas-, gas cap-, water-drive), secondary gas cap, first production date, build-up period, plateau period, production decline, water cut, Darcy s law, recovery factor, sweep efficiency, by-passing of oil, residual oil, relative permeability, production forecasts, offtake rate, coning, cusping, horizontal wells, reservoir simulation, material balance, rate dependent processes, pre-drilling. 

Table 2. Primary and secondary battery market forecast Ibillion batteries]...

The time-series analysis results of Merz et were expressed in first-order empirical formulas for the most part. Forecasting expressions were developed for total oxidant, carbon monoxide, nitric oxide, and hydrocarbon. Fitting correlation coefficients varied from 0.547 to 0.659. As might be expected, the best results were obtained for the primary pollutants carbon monoxide and nitric oxide, and the lowest correlation was for oxidant. This model relates one pollutant to another, but does not relate emission to air quality. For primary pollutants, the model expresses the concentrations as a function of time. 

In the time it takes to read this sentence another twenty people will have been added to the world s population and by this time next week enough people will have been born to establish a new city about the size of Birmingham in the UK or Detroit in the USA or Brisbane in Australia. This rapid expansion is forecast to stabilise by 2050 at 11 billion, a 100% increase from 1998. Enormous sociological and economic progress must occur to allow such increases without apocalyptic penalty but of primary importance will be our ability to produce food in sufficient quantity and of appropriate quality to sustain an acceptable standard of living. 

The global energy intensity was steadily increased during the last quarter of the twentieth century. However, from year 2000 to 2030 a doubling of the demand of primary resources is expected - from 9 to 18 btoe - as predicted by various development scenarios [1], Furthermore, the forecast for 2050 shows a demand of roughly 25-30 btoe. 

Total Primary and Secondary Battery Market Forecast (billions, 109)... 

Prediction of an unknown sample is the primary motivation for developing a calibration model and is easily accomplished by use of Equation 5.13. Often, statisticians refer to this as forecasting. The 100%(1 - a) confidence interval for prediction at x0 is given by... 

The regional air quality (AQ) forecasting system of FMI has been set up in 2005 and opened for public access via internet in 2006 (http //silam.fmi.fi). A primary goal of the system is to evaluate and forecast the air pollution over the Finnish territory. Since Finland is a receptor of practically all main pollutants, the area of the simulations is necessarily covered the whole of Europe with a compromising resolution of 30 km. A nested domain was introduced in 2007 and it covers northern Europe with a resolution of 10 km. 

Since Febmary of 2006, the regional forecasting system of FMI covers three major types of sources (Fig. 15.1) anthropogenic emission of sulphur oxides and primary particulate matter PM 2.5 and PM 10, biological sources of birch pollen and... 

Figure 2 summarizes the basic difference between the 1975 national stationary source demand for low sulfur coal and oil, based on State Implementation Plan (SIP) estimates of that necessary to achieve primary ambient air quality standards and the projected 1975 supply of these fuels (6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11). The net result is a forecast coal/oil supply deficit on the basis of sulfur content and including foreign imports, of approximately 8 XlO Btu. This is equivalent to a combined annual shortage of about 230 million tons of coal and 300 million barrels of primarily residual oil. Table II shows the regional distribution of these shortages. In the judgment of the author, uncertainties in factors such as sulfur content analyses, production potentials, and the commercial impact of environmental standards by 1975 limit the accuracy of these supply deficit forecasts to about 20%. 

This model has been exercised on a variety of AQCR s for which an accurate emission inventory, meteorological data base, and measured ground level pollutant concentrations are available. The results discussed in this paper represent analyses of the New York, Philadelphia, Niagara Frontier, St. Louis, and Milwaukee AQCRs 13, 14). These AQCRs represent a reasonable cross-section of the eastern urban AQCRs where the primary sulfur dioxide ambient air quality problem exists. The results of these analyses indicate that the level of control required by emission source to achieve ambient air quality standards can be forecast with greatly increased assurance. The following conclusions from this exercise should be considered in the near-term achievement of ambient air quality standards. 

The lead government department responsible for the development of the NAP was the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), which has primary responsibility for the development of UK environmental policy. Alongside Defra, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) also took a major role, providing the UK s energy-use forecasts, serving as a liaison with industry, and later taking... 

In the case of the new Member States below their Kyoto Protocol target, it is apparent that the proposed allocations are quite different when compared to historic emissions. Three countries - Lithuania, Hungary, and the Czech Republic - used macroeconomic analysis to forecast the total expected emissions of the ETS sector, which figure, after several revisions, was the primary input for the total amount of allowances to be created. 

Furthermore, the difficulties encountered with using forecasts as a primary basis for allocations in the new Member States can expected to re-emerge in the preparation of the second NAP. Under the current rules, the 2008-2012 NAPs in new Member States would have to rely on forecasts made in 2006 for a period that is two to six years from then, well beyond a reasonable time-span necessary for the predictability that is required when distributing valuable assets. (The outcome of the public consultations on forecasts in Hungary was discussed above in detail.) The proposed total quantities will therefore be based more on the outcome of a political process that decides on the level of emissions that is considered acceptable. It was mentioned before that reducing CO2 emissions is not a primary political objective in countries that are still far from their Kyoto Protocol targets. We should not therefore expect very ambitious proposals. 

The primary focus of late-stage clinical trials is to forecast accurately the benefits and risks of new therapies for the broad population of subjects seeking better therapies, while protecting the safety of those subjects who volunteer to participate in the process. Our present approach has steadily evolved and, for the most part, improved over time. But a number of challenges must be addressed and changes implemented for clinical trials to continue to deliver on their promise. 

I took the data for the US from 1930 to 1935 and tried to forecast oil coverage of the US market up to 1970. The predicted values, even for the saturation period, fit the statistical data better than one percent which, after all, is the minimum error that can be expected from this kind of statistics. This means that the contribution of oil to the US energy budget, e.g. in 1965, was completely predetermined 30 years before, with the only assumption that a new primary source of energy, e.g., nuclear, was not going to play a major role in the meantime. As the history of substitutions shows, however, the time a new source takes to make some inroads in the market is very long indeed—about a hundred years to become dominant, starting from scratch. 

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