Loss of life expectancy

Cross-comparing the risks of various activities is difficult because of the lack of a common basis of comparison, however Cohen and Lee, 1979 provide such a comparison on the basis of loss of life expectancy. Solomon and Abraham, 1979 used an index of harm in a study of 6 occupational harms - three radiological and three nonradiological to bracket high and low estimates of radiological effects. The index of harm consists of a weighting factor for parametric study the lost time in an industry and the worker population at risk. The conclusions were that the data are too imprecise for firm conclusions but it is possible for a radiation worker under pessimistic health effects assumptions to have as high index of harm as the other industries compared. 

Depending on the purposes of a particular risk assessment, the risk may be expressed in different terms. Common measures include the number of additional cases of cancer, the percentage increase in cancer incidence, the number of additional cancer deaths, or the percentage increase in cancer mortality in a population. The loss of life expectancy in the population (in person-years) or the average loss of life expectancy per capita (in minutes, hours, or days) also are helpful measures, because the term life expectancy conveys the statistical nature of a risk. The number of working days lost (total per population, or average... 

Table 1-1 Potential Risks and the Estimated Loss of Life Expectancy...

Table 1-2 Estimated Loss of Life Expectancy by Life-style and Other Causes...

Residual risk the concept of loss-of-life expectancy... 

One way of expressing the death risk connected to a certain activity is to indicate the years or the days of life lost on average (Loss-of-life expectancy (LLE) or Years of lost life (YOLL)) by the individuals considered as a consequence of that activity. It is clear how one measure can be converted into the other one. If for a person the additional death risk... 

Table 1.1 Potential risks and the estimated loss of life expectancy - from ABC News Special by John Stossel [27]...

Table 1.2 Estimated loss of life expectancy by life-style and other causes - from the Chemical Manufactnrers Association [28]...

There are some measures of risk such as deaths per million people per year or loss of life expectancy from various events or activities which can be built up from careful studies. For example, one figure given for smoking (one pack per day) is 5000 deaths per million people per year. 

A weakness of time-series studies is that those individuals who die as a result of pollution exposure cannot be identified. The associations of mortality with particle air pollution are stronger in the elderly (21,22,37,38), and deaths are associated with chronic respiratory or cardiovascular problems (43). But it is not clear who is dying. Are they people who would have died within the next couple of days anyway Is air pollution harvesting those who were on the verge of mortality If so, the few days loss of life expectancy may not have major pubhc health significance. 

Ultimately, the question is not how many deaths are attributable to particulate air pollution, but whether these associations represent substantial loss of life expectancy. In the Six-Cities Study, the estimated effect of air pollution across the range of exposures for never-smokers was 1.19 (95% Cl 0.90-1.57). Applying this increased probability of death at each age between 25 and 85 years for the U.S. population (86) gives a decrease in life expectancy of 2.0 years (95% Cl 1.2-5.1 years). The American Cancer Society estimates for effect of fine particles on never-smokers [relative risk of 1.22 (95% Cl 1.07-1.39)] would similarly estimate decreased life expectancy of 2.3 years (95% Cl 0.8-3.7 years). For comparison, based on the Six-Cities Study results, smoking one pack of cigarettes per day starting at age 25 would lead to a decreased life expeetancy of 8.5 years. 

FARs for tile two types of accidents are equal and it is likely tliat over long periods of time an equal number of deaths may be expected from both types of accidents. This does not mean tliat equal consequences will result to Uie company from both types of accidents. Accidents of the first type involve a low (but, perhaps, steady) loss of life. Accidents of the second type, however, arc sure to attract a great deal of attention in the media. Adverse public relations is nearly certain, as well as mifavorable attention from legislators and otlier public officials. 

B.rn.isk assessment includes incident identification and consequence analysis. Incident identification describes how an accident occurs. It frequently includes an analysis of the probabilities. Consequence analysis describes the expected damage. This includes loss of life, damage to the environment or capital equipment, and days outage. 

What is power quality Power quality, as defined in this book, is a set of electrical boundaries that allows equipment to function in its intended manner without significant loss of performance or life expectancy. Conditions that provide satisfactory performance at the expense of life expectancy or vice versa are not acceptable. 

Osteoporosis is a disease characterized by a reduction in bone mass and a deterioration in bone microarchitecture, which leads to enhanced fragility. This is a very common disorder, and it is becoming more common with the increase of life expectancy thus, it is a major public health issue. Osteoporosis is caused by an increase in bone loss and at the same time a decrease in bone formation. With increasing age, bone formation is slowed down, especially in women after the menopause, although it is also seen sometimes in men, usually aged over 70 years (senile osteoporosis). 

In application of the second approach we consider four different scenarios of flooding events by means of different return periods. Each scenario associates with its certain flooding water level corresponding to the return period of the event. This leads to different in expected flood depths and, as consequence, the potential loss of life also differs by scenarios. Base on scenario analysis the FN-curve for Nam Dinh is found (see Fig. 3). With present situation of flood defences, the immdation probability is in range of 0.1 to 0.15 (6-10 years return periods) and the potential loss of life due to sea flood in Nam Dinh is expected at 41 fatalities. 

The standard way of reporting the results from QRAs/PRAs is to present calculated frequencies (expected values) and probabilities, for example expressed by PEL (Potential Loss of Life) values, FAR (Fatal Accident Rates) values, IR (Individual Risk) values and F-N-curves (Frequency-Nmnber of fatalities). These risk indices form a risk picture, which constitutes the basis for the risk evaluation, to determine the... 

Flood risk is not just about probabUities, but also about the consequences of floods. The Dutch approach to the evaluation of flood safety has traditionally been to minimize the sum of the discounted investments in flood defense and the discoimted expected value of fhmre losses (Van Dantzig 1956). Various intangible losses, including loss of life, are valued in money terms and included in the financial balance. 

Composite Exposure Dollars Next, one needs to know the total dollars at risk for each department, the composite exposure dollars. The composite exposure dollars are the sum of the monetary value of three components property value, business intermption cost, and personnel exposure value. The procedure estimates the property value from the replacement cost of all material and equipment at risk in a department. Business interruption cost is the product of three elements. The three are (1) unit cost of goods produced (2) the department production capacity per year and (3) the expected percentage of capacity. Personnel exposure value is the product of the total number of people in a department during the most populated shift and the monetary value for each person. The authors set the monetary value somewhat high to reflect that loss of life is not acceptable. 

Eor the case of security, the request should not only cover scenarios, probabilities and expected consequences given an attack or quantities like Individual Risk (IR), Fatal Accident Rate (FAR), Potential Loss of Life (PLL), f-n curves etc., but also, and equally importantly, that the background knowledge underpinning these numbers and potential black swans is assessed in the same way as for financial risk. Take for example the assumption that the military will prevent terror—what if it fails What could be the consequences An assessment of the assumption deviation risk needs to be requested. 

Kolen, B., Kok, M., Helsloot, I., Maaskant, B. 2012. EvacuAid A Probabilistic Model to Determine the Expected Loss of Life for Different Mass Evacuation Strategies During Flood Threats. Risk Analysis 33(7) 1312-1333. 

The first factor contributing to seismic risk, such as from an earthquake event with a PGA of 0.7 g, is the occurrence rate of such earthquake which is often measured by annual exceedance probability (AEP). The other factor is the craise-quence as a result of an earthquake, which is ultimately measured in terms of loss of life and sometimes economic loss. At a conceptual level, seismic risk can be expressed as the product of seismic hazard probability and consequence, and it represents the probabilistic expectation of the consequence. 

This special burden of engineers is addressed in different ways around the world. In some countries, such as the U.S., engineers are expected to adhere to a code of ethics. In other countries, failures may be disciplined through the legal system. This chapter reviews one code of ethics, that adopted by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), and then reviews five case studies of building collapses and dam failures that led to loss of life, and their repercussions. 

A Class 1 installation achieves high availability using a single pump upon which the system is completely dependent is in a single process stream where pump outage means a large loss of output. The process here demands that continuous operation is possible for at least three years without enforced halts for inspection or correction and where components must have a life expectancy of more than 100,000 hours. 

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