Population exposure estimates

Compounds Country Detection frequency Population Exposure estimate (ng/day) Particularities References... 

This chapter will focus on PM ambient concentrations, which are key variables for exposure models, and are generally obtained by direct measurements in air quality monitoring stations. However, depending on the location and dimension of the region to be studied, monitoring data could not be sufficient to characterise PM levels or to perform population exposure estimations. Numerical models complement and improve the information provided by measured concentration data. These models simulate the changes of pollutant concentrations in the air using a set of mathematical equations that translate the chemical and physical processes in the atmosphere. 

It is important that both the qualitative and quantitative characterization be clearly communicated to the risk manager. The qualitative characterization includes the quality of the database, along with strengths and weaknesses, for both health and exposure evaluations the relevance of the database to humans the assumptions and judgements that were made in the evaluation and the level of confidence in the overall characterization. The quantitative characterization also includes information on the range of effective exposure levels, dose-response estimates (including the uncertainty factors applied), and the population exposure estimates. Kimmel et al. (2006) reviewed many of the components of the risk characterization for reproductive and developmental effects and provided a comprehensive list of issues to be considered for each of the components of the risk assessment. 

These factors typically converge as a sum of products or quotients to define a distribution of population exposure or a range of individual exposures. The reliability of population exposure estimates will depend strongly on the quantity and accuracy of the obtainable data associated with these five links. 

Hope BK, Generating probabilistic spatially-explicit individual and population exposure estimates for ecological risk assessments, Risk Anal., 20, 573, 2000. 

Information on effects of chemicals are available from a number of industrial hygiene handbooks such as Sax s Dangerous Properties of Industrial Materials 103) or Patty s Industrial Hygiene and Toxicology 96). If sufficient numbers of effects have been observed for a given chemical, it may be possible to construct a dose/effects curve from which the level of the exposure can be estimated if effects have been observed. Information sources on acute effects and chronic effects data were discussed in Section IV,A on general population exposure estimation. 

CASRAM predicts discharge fractions, flash-entrainment quantities, and liquid pool evaporation rates used as input to the model s dispersion algorithm to estimate chemical hazard population exposure zones. The output of CASRAM is a deterministic estimate of the hazard zone (to estimate an associated population health risk value) or the probability distributions of hazard-zones (which is used to estimate an associated distribution population health risk). 

Dose-response assessment is the process of characterizing the relationship between the dose of an agent administered or received and the incidence of an adverse health effect in e.xposed populations, and estimating the incidence of the effect as a function of e.xposure to the agent. This process considers such important factors as intensity of exposure, age pattern of exposure, and possibly other variables that might affect response, such as sex, lifestyle, and other modifying factors. 

After intakes have been estimated, they arc organized by population, as appropriate. Then, tlie sources of uncertainty (e.g., variability in analytical data, modeling results, parameter assumptions) and their effect on tlie exposure estimates are evaluated and sunuiumzed. Tliis information on uncertainty is important to site decision-makers who must evaluate tlie results of the e.xposure... 

Mining Waste Estimated 10-20 eaneers aiuiually, largely due to arsenie. Remote loeations and small population exposure reduee overall risk though individual risk may be high. 

Exposure of the general population to diisopropyl methylphosphonate is expected to be highly unlikely and to occur at extremely low levels, but data are insufficient for exposure estimates. Diisopropyl methylphosphonate has been detected in the groundwater and, to a lesser extent, in the surface water and soil at or near the RMA. If exposure of the general population to diisopropyl methylphosphonate were to occur, water would be the most likely source. 

Polyalphaolefin Hydraulic Fluids. Polyalphaolefin hydraulic fluids find significant use in a number of applications including situations where cold temperature operation is important. Applications include construction equipment and other machinery that is designed to operate in cold conditions. No estimates of either occupational or general population exposure to these hydraulic fluids were found in the available literature. 

In a report comparing community responses to low-level exposure to a mixture of air pollutants from pulp mills, Jaakkola et al. (1990) reported significant differences in respiratory symptoms between polluted and unpolluted communities. The pollutant mixture associated with the pulp mills included particulates, sulfur dioxide, and a series of malodorous sulfur compounds. Major contributors in the latter mixture include hydrogen sulfide, methyl mercaptan, and methyl sulfides. In this study the responses of populations from three communities were compared, a nonpolluted community, a moderately polluted community, and a severely polluted community. Initial exposure estimates were derived from dispersion modeling these estimates were subsequently confirmed with measurements taken from monitoring stations located in the two polluted communities. These measurements indicated that both the mean and the maximum 4-hour concentrations of hydrogen sulfide were higher in the more severely polluted community (4 and 56 g/m3 2.9 and 40 ppb) than in the moderately polluted one (2 and 22 g/m3 1.4 and 16 ppb). Particulate measurements made concurrently, and sulfur dioxide measurements made subsequently, showed a similar difference in the concentrations of these two pollutants between the two polluted communities. 

In the SRI report (2) the release information on benzene was used with atmospheric dispersion models and data on geographic distribution of population to obtain aggregate exposure estimates (shown in Table IV). 

Each of the main risk analysis elements consists of three interactive studies. Exposure estimates result from the integration of pollutant dispersion patterns and human population patterns. The dispersion patterns, in turn, result from the joint action of emissions and dispersion processes. 

Another case of multimedia fate modeling may be exemplified by human inhalation exposure estimates for PCB spills. The spill size is estimated considering both spread and soil infiltration. Volatilization calculations were carried out to get transfer rates into the air compartment. Finally, plume calculations using local meteorological statistics produced ambient concentration patterns which can be subsequently folded together with population distributions to obtain exposures. 

Receptor Exposure. Exposure modeling should produce a statistically representative profile of pollutant intake by a set of receptors. This is done by combining the space/time distribution of pollutant concentrations with that of receptor populations (whether they be people, fish, ducks or property made of some material that is vulnerable to pollutant damage). The accuracy and resolution of the exposure estimates are chosen to be consistent with the main purposes of decision making. These purposes include the following ... 

The output of an exposure and risk assessment will usually describe the levels of exposure and quantity the population exposed for both humans and other biota, and will estimate the associated probabilities of the incidence of adverse health effects. Population exposure or risk, obtained by multiplying the individual (per capita) exposure or risk by the numbers exposed at each level of exposure, may also be a useful measure of impact. Various analyses can be performed on the results, for example, comparison of exposures in a particular geographic area against national average exposure levels. Likewise, for the same pollutant, environmental risks due to a particular industry might be compared against risks associated with occupational or household activities. In addition, the health risk of different substances could be compared for priority setting. 

The purpose of an Exposure Route and Receptor Analysis is to provide methods for estimating individual and population exposure. The results of this step combined with the output of the fate models serve as primary input to the exposure estimation step. Unlike the other analytic steps, the data prepared in this step are not necessarily pollutant-specific. The two discrete components of this analysis are (1) selection of algorithms for estimating individual intake levels of pollutants for each exposure pathway and (2) determination of the regional distribution of study area receptor populations and the temporal factors and behavioral patterns influencing this distribution. 

For a limited number of exposure pathways (primarily inhalation of air in the vicinity of sources), pollutant fate and distribution models have been adapted to estimate population exposure. Examples of such models include the SAI and SRI methodologies developed for EPA s Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (1,2), the NAAQS Exposure Model (3), and the GEMS approach developed for EPA s Office of Toxic Substances (4). In most cases, however, fate model output will serve as an independent input to an exposure estimate. 

This inverse relationship between equilibrium factor and "unattached" fraction and their relationship to the resulting dose is important in considering how to most efficiently and effectively monitor for exposure. This inverse relationship suggests that it is sufficient to determine the radon concentration. However, it is not clear how precisely this relationship holds and if the dose models are sufficiently accurate to fully support the use of only radon measurements to estimate population exposure and dose. 

Exposures in the population of interest will generally reveal that incurred dose is only a small fraction, and sometimes a very tiny fraction, of that at which toxic responses has been or can be directly measured, in either epidemiology or animal studies. Occupational populations (Table 8.1, Scenario C) may be exposed at doses close to those for which data are available, but general population exposures are usually much smaller. Thus, to estimate risk it will be necessary to incorporate some form of extrapolation from the available dose-response data to estimate toxic response (risk) in the range of doses expected to be incurred by the population that is the subject of the risk assessment. 

Exposure Levels in Environmental Media. Environmental monitoring data are not available or are of questionable accuracy for water, soil, and air. These data would be helpful in determining the ambient concentrations of 1,2-diphenylhydrazine so that exposure estimates for the general population could be made as well as 1,2-diphenylhydrazine exposure estimates for terrestrial and aquatic organisms. 

The EDI of phthalates in China, Germany, Taiwan, and US populations are shown in Table 7. The calculation was based on phthalate metabolite (primary and secondary) concentrations, the model of David [137] and the excretion fractions according to various authors [23,28,143,144]. DEHP median values are very close or clearly exceed the TDIs and RfD values (Table 4). The median values for the rest of PAEs are below levels determined to be safe for daily exposures estimated by the US (RfD), the EU and Japan (TDI) (Table 4). However, the upper percentiles of DBP and DEHP urinary metabolite concentrations suggested that for some people, these daily phthalate intakes might be substantially higher than previously assumed and exceed the RfD and TDIs. 

The National Occupational Exposure Survey conducted by NIOSH between 1980 and 1983 estimated that 96,345 employees were exposed to fuel oil no. 2, 1,526 workers were exposed to fuel oil no. 4, and 1,076,518 employees (including 96,255 females) were exposed to kerosene in the workplace. Worker exposure was most likely in industries associated with machinery and special trade contractors. General population exposure is potentially the greatest for persons living near an area where fuel oils have been dumped and have migrated into the groundwater or when fuel oil vapor has penetrated the soil and may enter basements of buildings. 

If actual or potential exposure has been identified, a quantitative exposure assessment is necessary. Exposure levels/concentrations for each potentially exposed population need to be derived from the available measured data and/or from modeling. A range of exposure values to characterize different subpopulations and scenarios may result. These results are taken forward to the risk characterization where they are combined with the results of the effects assessment in order to decide whether or not there is concern for the human population exposed to the substance. In some cases all three types of exposure estimates may contribute to an overall exposure value (combined exposure), which should be considered in the risk characterization. 

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