Worldwide demand, petroleum

Since 1973, progress in the petrochemical industry has been rather like a roller-coaster ride. Major rises in the price of crude oil in 1973-1974 and again in the late 1970s fed through most quickly into petrochemical products, affecting demand worldwide. This period saw many proposals to replace petroleum-based chemical feedstocks, and even hydrocarbon fuels. 

This product, given the abbreviation FOD (fuel-oil domestique) in France, still held a considerable market share there of 17 Mt in 1993. However, since 1973 when its consumption reached 37 Mt, FOD has seen its demand shrink gradually owing to development of nuclear energy and electric heating. FOD also faces strong competition with natural gas. Nevertheless, its presence in the French, European and worldwide petroleum balance will still be strong beyond tbe year 2000. 

Aircraft Fuels. Demand for aviation gas turbine fuels has been growing more rapidly than demand for other petroleum products since 1960, about 3—5% per year compared with 1% for all oil products. This strong demand reflects a current and predicted growth in worldwide air traffic of 4—7% annually until the end of the century. Total world oil demand will be up by 15% by the year 2000, but aviation fuel demand will increase by 50—125%. However, the fraction of the oil barrel devoted to aviation, now about 8%, will increase only slightly. 

The major initial driving force in the expansion of catalytic processing was the worldwide demand for energy and the availability of relatively eap petroleum. This led to the development of major new processes in petroleum refining and in the petrochemical industry, as well as to inventions which revolutionized existing technology (Table 1). 

The increased energy demand, depletion of petroleum reserves, as well as major concerns of rising greenhouse gas emissions make the implementation of alternative and renewable sources of energy a cracial issue worldwide. 

In 1994, the worldwide consumption of rubber was approximately 14.5 million tons a year, of which about 40% consisted of natural rubber. Natural rubber is produced as latex by tropical rubber trees (Hevea brasiliensis). It is processed locally and therefore the quality of natural rubber fluctuates remarkably [ 140]. Due to increasing demand for rubbers, combined with a decreasing production capacity in Asia and a vast increase in labor costs, the price of natural rubber is still rising sharply. In 1990-1994, the average price of natural rubber was about 0.38 /lb, while in 1996 it was already over 0.80 /lb. The remaining 60% of the articles were manufactured from synthetic petroleum-based rubbers such as isoprene rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, chloroprene rubber and polyurethanes. The quality of synthetic rubbers is constant, and their price varies between 2 and 5 US per kilogram [137-140]. 

Biodiesel represents an increasingly important alternative to conventional petroleum-based fuels. However, biodiesel will not be able to completely replace petroleum-based diesel given the current worldwide demand for this energy source." Most likely, biodiesel will find widespread use in the form of blends with conventional diesel as is currently occurring in some countries in... 

By the end of this century, the supply of petroleum will reach a maximum and then decline slowly. On the other hand, the worldwide demand for liquid fuels will remain at present levels or even increase because of rapidly growing demands of developing countries. Thus, both saving energy and finding new supplies of liquid fuels are major tasks to be developed within these 10 years. 

Figure 8 illustrates 1983 coke markets according to consuming industries worldwide. Most of the petroleum coke consumed by the steel industry occurs outside of the United States, since metallurgical coal is widely available here. Most calcined coke is consumed by the aluminum industry in the production of primary aluminum. Cement producers burn a coke/coal mix in their cement kilns. Finally, utility coke consumption is relatively a small portion of total demand. 

There is a worldwide tendency to replace conventional soaps (made from fats and oils derived from animals and plants) with synthetic detergents (syndets) from petroleum sources. In developed countries syndets have replaced soaps to the extent of 70-80%. In India, the situation is nearly the reverse the total estimated production of soaps exceeds 700,000 tons, while that of syndets is only 100,000 tons. With the increasing demand for soap, the import of oils and fats tends to increase tremendously, affecting not only the soap industry but also the edible oils industry which is closely linked to it and also is subject to an ever-increasing demand (based on the improving standards of living and the increase in population—625 million in 1977). 

For the very large sugar exporters, worldwide demand may not keep pace with the ability to expand production so that fermentation to ethanol may provide them with a means to reduce petroleum imports and to keep sugar off the market, thus keeping world sugar prices high. But, even in this case, the use of ethanol for a fuel may not be the best economic use for the alcohol. Use of ethanol as a chemical feedstock may also be economically attractive. This topic, however, is beyond the scope of the current analysis. 

The majority of lubricant base fluids are produced by refining crude oil. Estimates of the total worldwide demand for petroleum base oils were 35 Mt in 1990 and this has remained approximately stable since [1]. The reasons for the predominance of refined petroleum base oils are simple and obvious - performance, availability and price. Large-scale oil refining operations produce base oils with excellent performance in modern lubricant formulations at economic prices. Non-petroleum base fluids are used where special properties are necessary, where petroleum base oils are in short supply or where substitution by natural products is practicable or desirable. 

Until 1950 the coal-tar industries were the major source of aromatics in both Europe and the U.S. Thereafter, they contracted slowly, while demand for aromatics increased. The chemical industry again turned to petroleum, which eventually supplied some 90% of benzene (4-5 Mt) and other aromatic hydrocarbons worldwide. 

---