Price forecasting

The penalties K0, Kp and k have to be set high enough to make relaxation unattractive compared to the overall profit in order to ensure constraints being only relaxed in the case with no feasible solution. As alternative to a manual setting, these parameters can also be determined dynamically in a preprocessing phase, e g. the total demand forecast turnover for k0, the maximum demand forecast price per ton for kp and the maximum demand forecast turnover for Kv. ... 

The left curve reflects the effect of sales decisions on average prices spot sales quantities lower than the spot demand quantity lead to average prices higher than the average forecasted price for an elasticity > 0 as illustrated in the sales planning requirements in figure 38. 

The analysis shows that the maximum profit for the Georgian economy may be reached via the development of the South Caucasian Pipeline system. The total direct revenue in this case is calculated as the sum of capitalization of transit fees (corresponding to 5% of the transported gas) and incomes received because of difference between agreed special price for Georgia (55 /1000 cub. m) and the forecasted price on local market as shown in Figure 5 for the examined period (2020). 

Purvin and Gertz Provides quarterly forecasts of oil, gas, and fuel prices that are widely used in the oil industry. They have a 10-year archive of historic data and forecast prices of most fuel products as well as crude oils on U.S., N.W. Europe, Middle East, and Asia bases. 

In many cases the values of the data coefficients are obtained by statistical estimation procedures on past figures, as in the case of sales forecasts, price estimates, and cost data. These estimates, in general, may not be very accurate. If we can identify which of the parameters affect the objective value most, then we can obtain better estimates of these parameters. This will increase the reliability of our model and the solution. 

In forecasting price trends for established products the available data on prices and tonnages sold again forms the basis for extrapolation. Published information on many chemicals (e.g. US Tariff Commission reports, reports of Office Central des Statistiques de la CEE) enable a plot of log (price—adjusted to constant money values) against log (cumulative production) to be drawn. 

Research indicates that several companies may dynamically adjust the price of their products over time. Indeed, dynamic pricing is a popular strategy in computer industry. Dell Computer Corp., which is the No. 1 PC maker in the world, is one of the pioneers in this area. By working with the company main suppliers, Dell can forecast prices for each component in its computers several... 

Corporate Planning Forecast oil and gas prices Discount rates, hurdle rates Exchange rates Inflation forecast Market factors Political risk, social obligations... 

Toluene demand in 1996 increased because of the new Amoco and Mobil (Chalmette) disproportionation plants as well as other capacity changes at Coastal (Eagle Point), Phillips (Sweeney), Gulf Chemicals (Arochem plant, Puerto Rico), Koch, and Texaco (Huntsman, Port Arthur). Dewitt (71) forecasts continued increase for this appHcation at the rate of about 14% between 1995 and the year 2000. These will have a significant effect on toluene price and availabiUty in the later 1990s. On the other hand, toluene demand for gasoline blending is expected to decline by about 283 million Hters by 1997-1998. 

Acrylic rubbers, as is the case for most specialty elastomers, are characterized by higher price and smaller consumption compared to general-purpose mbbers. The total mbber consumption ia 1991 was forecast (55) at 15.7 million t worldwide with a 66% share for synthetic elastomers (10.4 x 10 t). Acryhc elastomers consumption, as a minor amount of the total synthetic mbbers consumption, can hardly be estimated. As a first approximation, the ACM consumption is estimated to be 7000 t distributed among the United States, Western Europe, and Japan/Far East, where automotive production is significantly present. 

Accuracy of sales forecasting can also be increased by a carebil study of past sales records, price trends, etc. However, the uncertainty of an estimate increases the farther into the future that the estimate is projec ted. 

Cost Indices The value of money will change because of inflation and deflation. Hence cost data can be accurate only at the time when they are obtained and soon go out of date. Data from cost records of equipment and projects purchased in the past may be converted to present-day values by means of a cost index. The present cost of the item is found by multiplying the historical cost by the ratio of the present cost index divided oy the index applicable at the previous date. Ideally each cost item affected by inflation should be forecast separately. Labor costs, construction costs, raw-materials and energy prices, and product prices all change at different rates. Composite indices are derived by adding weighted fractions of the component indices. Most cost indices represent national averages, and local values may differ considerably. 

After the average crude oil price increased from 3.18 per barrel in 1970 to 21.59 in 1980, many analysts forecast skyrocketing energy prices for the remainder of the centuiy. The middle price path of the U.S. Energy Information Administration in 1979 projected a nominal price of 117.50 per barrel in 1995 Such forecasts seemed to be soundly based not only in recent experience but also in the economic theoiy of exhaustible resources. As a consequence, U.S. industries invested heavily in energy conseiwa-tion measures, with the result that industrial consumption of energy decreased from 31.5 quads in 1973 to 27.2 in 1985. Some of this investment was probably not warranted on economic efficiency gi ounds because prices ceased to rise after 1981, and even plummeted to 10 per barrel in 1986. 

A Maack Scheidl Partnership CH-8804 Au/near Zurich, Switzerland Tel +41-1-781 3040 Fax +41-1-781 1569 http //www.MBSpolymer.com Plastics technology and marketing business service, which organizes global conferences, and edits a range of reports and studies, which focus on important worldwide aspects of polymer research, development, production, and end uses. Provides updates on plastic costs, pricing, forecast, supply/demand, and analysis. Identified early in the cycle are trends in production, products and market segments. 

Butadiene is an especially versatile chemical because of its two reactive double bonds. It has been forecast that future butadiene supplies will be plentiful at a stable price due to an anticipated abundance of butenes. This suggests that butenes and butadiene are of major interest in the R D departments of many large chemical companies. 

Production planning includes considerations on production objectives over a certain time horizon given marketing forecasts for prices and product demands, equipment availability, and inventories. This is a macrolevel problem of the allocation of production capacity, time, product inventories, and labour and energy resources, so as to determine the production goals that maximize the total profit over an extended period of time into the future (e.g. a few months to a few years). 

Any forecast of income requires a prediction of future output volumes by product category and their prices. With the withdrawal of so many guaranteed prices with the free market economy, the forecasting of prices is particularly difficult. It may be relatively easy for milk, and possibly wheat, but is much harder for volatile enterprises such as beef, pigs (which have never had a guaranteed price) and turkeys. 

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