Quarterly forecasting

Purvin and Gertz Provides quarterly forecasts of oil, gas, and fuel prices that are widely used in the oil industry. They have a 10-year archive of historic data and forecast prices of most fuel products as well as crude oils on U.S., N.W. Europe, Middle East, and Asia bases. 

Quarterly forecasting result generated by the proposed model (category 1). 

Table 9.6 Comparison of quarterly forecasting results (category 1 and city 1)...

The MAPE is a good measure of forecast error when the underlying forecast has significant seasonality and demand varies considerably from one period to the next Consider a scenario in which two methods are used to make quarterly forecasts for a product with seasonal demand that peaks in the third quarter. Method 1 returns forecast errors of 190, 200, 245, and 180 Method 2 returns forecast errors of 100,120,500, and 100 over four quarters. Method 1 has a lower MSE and MAD relative to Method 2 and would be preferred if either alterion was used. If demand is highly seasonal, however, and averages 1,000, 1,200, 4,800, and 1,100 in the four periods. Method 2 results in a MAPE of 9.9 percent, whereas Method 1 resnlts in a mnch higher MAPE, 14.3 percent. In this instance, it can be argued that Method 2 should be preferred to Method 1. 

Some investigators forecast that during the first quarter of the 21 st Century. molecular electronics will lead to rupermolecular electronics where signal transport and control will be effected by nanometer-scale assemblies. 

Staff Forecast 91 Metals," Advanced Materials Processes, 24 (January 1991). Staff Various publications on tin and its compounds, including Tin and Its Uses (quarterly) Tin International (monthly) and statistical publications on tin (periodically), International Tin Research Institute, Middlesex, England. 

The global energy intensity was steadily increased during the last quarter of the twentieth century. However, from year 2000 to 2030 a doubling of the demand of primary resources is expected - from 9 to 18 btoe - as predicted by various development scenarios [1], Furthermore, the forecast for 2050 shows a demand of roughly 25-30 btoe. 

The thematic outline of the book was conceived during winter 2006/2007. The contents of the book thus basically reflect the specialized areas of research at the intersection of supramolecular chemistry and hybrid (nano)materials that were established at that time. However, because of the vibrant drive of research in these two areas, it is not surprising that significant new developments are being conceived, realized, and published almost quarterly. Of course, once new findings are reported, especially on novel composite materials, it is difficult to forecast whether they will become important... 

Forecast prepared during first quarter of 1995. Noncarboxylated. ... 

To provide a flexible, robust and effective methodology for fashion sales forecasting, this chapter examines the sales forecasting problem based on the forecasting process in real-world fashion retailing, which forecasts the total sales amount of each fashion item category or each city (all categories) on a medium-term basis (annually, quarterly and monthly). 

To evaluate the performanee of the proposed forecasting model, extensive experiments were conducted in terms of real fashion sales data, which forecast the total sales amounts of various item categories and cities on a monthly, quarterly or annual basis. 

The 2011 floods in Thailand had long-lasting effects. In the fourth quarter of 2011, Panasonic Corp. almost doubled its annual loss forecast to a record 780 billion ( 10 billion), weaker earnings because of floods in Thailand and slowing demand for televisions. 

Forecasting time interval refers to the granularity of the new product forecast with respect to the time bucket as well as to how often the forecast might be updated. For example, a series of forecasts can be provided on a weekly, monthly, quarterly, or annual basis. 

Cisco Systems outsources all of its manufacturing. It has its suppliers post their quotes and forecasts on Cisco s Website each quarter. Then Cisco selects its suppliers and contract manufacturers Economist, June 26,1999). 

The SI unit for pressure is a derived unit that reflects the definition of pressure. The SI units for force and area are the newton and the square meter, respectively. So pressure is measured in N m . This unit has also been named the Pascal, Pa. One newton is roughly the force exerted by gravity on a one-quarter-pound object. When spread out over a square meter, this force does not produce very much pressure, so the Pa is a relatively small quantity. Typical atmospheric pressures are on the order of 10 Pa. Thus a more practical unit is kPa, which is the unit used in weather forecasts in Canada and other metric countries. ... 

The problem is to determine the forecast for quarter 1 of year 2011 (period 13). 

Step 3 Select any time series forecasting method. For illustration, we will use the exponential smoothing forecasting method with a = 0.2.For the initial forecast for Quarter 1 of year 2008, we will use 600. 

Step 4 Apply the exponential smoothing method on the deseasonalized demand to get deseasonalized forecast as shown in Table 2.3. For example, deseasonalized forecast for Quarter 1 (2011) is given by... 

Step 5 Compute the actual forecast for year 2011, Quarter 1 as follows ... 

Year Quarter Period (t) Demand (D,) Seasonality Index (SI) Deseasonalized Demand [d,] Deseasonalized Forecast [f,] Forecas (F.)... 

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