Accident Analysis and Modeling

In comparison with other European countries Poland s traffic fatality risk rates still remain on very high levels. These last few years, the number of fatalities was around 3,500, and the mortality rate reached about nine killed per 100,000 of the population, which places Poland in a very bad position in Europe. This situation shows a strong need for intensified systemic and preventive work, which aiso prevails in the field of road safety analysis. The objective of this paper is to describe the models that have been developed for analyzing the short-term changes in the aggregate number of fatalities in Poland, measured on a monthly basis between 1998 and 2012. The models account for the influence of economic conditions on the level of road mortality. 

Chapter written by Ruth Bergel-Hayat and Joanna Zukowska. 

Traffic Safety, First Edition. Edited by Greorge Yannis and Simon Cohen. ISTE Ltd 2016. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley Sons, Inc. 

The road toll is not only a human tragedy, but also a substantial burden on the entire economy. The costs of rescue, emergency care, rehabilitation, lifetime care of permanently disabled victims, property damage and the work time lost through the injmy and death of productive members of society are not well researched for Poland, but can be expected to be as high as 2% of GNP [WHO 13], 

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Traffic Safety, Volume 4 of the Research for Innovative Transports Set, presents a collection of updated papers from the TRA 2014 Conference, highlighting the diversity of research in this field. Theoretical chapters and practical case studies address topics such as road safety management and policies, accident analysis and modeling, vulnerable road users safety, road infrastructure safety, ITS and railway safety. 

Volume 4, Traffic Safety, describes the main road safety policies, accident analysis and modeling. Special focns is placed on the safety of vulnerable road nsers. The roles of infrastractnre and ITS in safety are analyzed. Finally railway safety is focused upon. 

Turner, N., Stride, C. B., Carter, A. J., McCaughey, D., Carroll, A. E. (2012). Job demands-control-support model and employee safety performance. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 45, 811-817. 

Oppe S., (1989). Macroscopic models for traffic and traffic safely. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.21, pp. 115-131. 

Scott, P., (1986). Modelling time series of British road accidents data. In Accident Analysis and Prevention, 18 pp 109-117. 

Olsen, E. 2010. Exploring the possibility of a common stractural model measuring associations between safety climate factors and safety behaviour in health care and the petroleum sectors. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42(5), 1507-16. 

Understanding these points helps practitioners apply accident theories and models. Accident theories and models provide some insights when investigating accidents or conducting hazard and risk analysis aimed at prevention. 

The severe accident analysis should model the wide range of physical processes that could occur following core damage and that could lead to a release of radioactive material to the environment. These should include, where appropriate ... 

The initiator for filtered water makeup not being stopped following a successfully mitigated 70 gpm draindown is modeled by a single basic event This event originated from the l sassembly Basin draindown accident analysis and includes all overfill evmt frequendes from the Mlt trees associated with a 70 gpm loss/makeup. These frequencies total to an overall frequency of... 

Naatanen, R. and Summala, H. 1974. A model for the role of motivational factors in drivers decision-making. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 6(3 ), 243-261. 

O Neill, B. 1977. A decision-theory model of danger compensation. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 7(3), 157-165. 

Gregersen, N. P. and Bjurulf, P. 1996. Young novice drivers Towards a model of their accident inYoh/ m nt Accident Analysis and Prevention, 28, 229-241. 

Michon, J.A. 1989. Explanatory pitfalls and rule-based driver models. Accident Analysis and... 

Ranney, T.A. 1994. Models of driving behaviour A review of their evolution. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 26, 733-750. 

Sze, N. N., Wong, S. C., Pei, X., Choi, P. W., and Lo, Y. K. 2011. Is a combined enforcement and penalty strategy effective in combating red light violations An aggregate model of violation behavior in Hong Kong. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 43, 265-271. 

Partyka, S.C. 1984. Simple models of fatality trends using employment and population data. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 16, 211-222. 

Page Y. (2001) A statistical model to compare road mortality in OECD countries. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 33, pp. 371-385. 

Young, W Sobhani, A. Lenn, M.G. Sarvi, M. 2014. Simulation of sefety A review of the state of the art in road safety simulation modeling. Accident Analysis and Prevention 66 (2014), 89-103. 

ABD 00] Abdel-Aty M.A., Radwan A.E., Modeling traffic accident occurrence and imoXvwaex, Accident Analysis and Prevention vol. 32, pp. 633-642,2000. 

CAF 10] Cafiso S., Di Graziano A., Di Silvestro G. et al, Development of comprehensive accident models for two-lane rural highways using exposure, geometry, consistency and context variables . Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 42, pp. 1072-1079,2010. 

ELY 13] Elvik R., A re-parameterisation of the Power Model of the relationship between the speed of traffic and the number of accidents and accident victims . Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 50, pp. 854-860,2013. 

LED 00] Leden L., GArder P., Pulkkinen U., An expert judgement model applied to estimating the safety effect of a bicycle facility . Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 32, no. 2000, pp 589-599,2000. 

Brown, R.L. and Holmes, H., 1986. The use of a factor-analysis procedure for assessing the validity of an employee safety climate model. Accident Analysis and Frevention, 18 455-470. 

In earlier work Robertson analyzes fatal accident involvement rates where the rates are fatalities per registered vehicle for each model year of vehicle. The 1964-1967 models are found to have rates 20 percent lower than unregulated models and the post-1967 models have rates 39 percent less than the unregulated models. No significant effect on pedestrian fatalities is detected. See Leon S. Robertson State and Federal New Car Safety Regulation Effects on Fatality Rates Accident Analysis and Prevention 9 (1977) 151-156. 

Barry O Neill. A Decision Theory Model and Danger Compensation Accident Analysis and Prevention 9 (1977) 157-165 and Lloyd D. Orr. Incentives and Efficiency in Automobile Safety Regulation Qututei Review of Economics and Business 22 (Autumn 1982) 43-65. 

For an analysis of the mystery plunge, see James Hedlund, Robert Arnold, Ezio Cerrelli, Susan Partyka, Paul Hoxie and David Skinner An Assessment of the 1982 Traffic Fatality Dearease Accident Analysis and Prevention (August 1984) 247-262. Also see Susan C. Partyka Simple Models of Fatality Trends Using Employment and Population Data Accident Analysis and Prevention (June 1984) 211-222 and P. P. Scott Modelling Time-Series of British Road Accident DdXsP Accident Analysis and Prevention (April 1S>86) 109-117. 

The frequency analysis step involves estimating the likelihood of occurrence of each of the undesired situations defined in the hazard identification step. Sometimes you can do this through direct comparison with experience or extrapolation from historical accident data. While this method may be of great assistance in determining accident frequencies, most accidents analyzed by QRA are so rare that the frequencies must be synthesized using frequency estimation methods and models. 

We previously encountered failure modes and effects (FMEA) and failure modes effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) as qualitative methods for accident analysis. These tabular methods for reliability analysis may be made quantitative by associating failure rates with the parts in a systems model to estimate the system reliability. FMEA/FMECA may be applied in design or operational phases (ANSI/IEEE Std 352-1975, MIL-STD-1543 and MIL-STD-1629A). Typical headings in the F.Mld. A identify the system and component under analysis, failure modes, the ef fect i>f failure, an estimale of how critical apart is, the estimated probability of the failure, mitigaturs and IHissihiy die support systems. The style and contents of a FMEA are flexible and depend upon the. ilitcLiives of the analyst. 

The analysis of accidents and disasters in real systems makes it clear that it is not sufficient to consider error and its effects purely from the perspective of individual human failures. Major accidents are almost always the result of multiple errors or combinations of single errors with preexisting vulnerable conditions (Wagenaar et al., 1990). Another perspective from which to define errors is in terms of when in the system life cycle they occur. In the following discussion of the definitions of human error, the initial focus will be from the engineering and the accident analysis perspective. More detailed consideration of the definitions of error will be deferred to later sections in this chapter where the various error models will be described in detail (see Sections 5 and 6). 

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