Forecast demand

The sequencing decisions and the decisions on production volumes should be answered at the latest possible moment, because that is the point in time when the demand forecast is replaced by actual orders to the maximum extent. 

Planned independent requirements give the impression of a defined cross-scope material flow (i.e., a flow with a possible target outside of the organizational unit considered) at a given time with a given quantity but in most cases they are only based on a rough monthly sales demand forecast figure for the finished product. This means that the requirement quantity and date of a planned independent requirement are less reliable and stable than the requirement quantity and date of a confirmed customer requirement. 

An electric utility currently has 700 MW of generating capacity and needs to expand this capacity over the next 5 years based on the following demand forecasts, which determine the minimum capacity required. 

Demand forecasting Supply chain logistics Market, materials, and product planning... 

Revenue management is focused on demand forecasting - aggregated and disaggregated - demand distribution models or arrival processes to... 

The rolling planning process starts with a first phase ( ) typically in the first half of the period. The regions update the regional demand forecast by price and quantity that is aggregated to a global demand. In analogy, offers... 

Sales planning has to reflect the bidding process presented in subchapter 2.3. Fig. 20 illustrates the paradigm shift from demand fulfilment towards sales plan achievement, where demand forecast captures the role of a price-quantity bid that is cleared based on available supply and a certain sales flexibility. The sales planning mechanism is further described in the following detailed requirements. 

Focus on demand forecasting and forecast accuracy rather than sales target achievement based on a differentiation of contract and spot sales... 

Input and control data given input data and control data defined by the planner and/or given by the value chain strategy bounding the optimization model e.g. demand forecast as input data and sales control boundaries as control data... 

The penalties K0, Kp and k have to be set high enough to make relaxation unattractive compared to the overall profit in order to ensure constraints being only relaxed in the case with no feasible solution. As alternative to a manual setting, these parameters can also be determined dynamically in a preprocessing phase, e g. the total demand forecast turnover for k0, the maximum demand forecast price per ton for kp and the maximum demand forecast turnover for Kv. ... 

Spot demand price elasticity is not a forecasted parameter but needs to be derived analytically. As specified in the value chain characteristics in subchapter 3.2 the company does not have a monopoly in the market and sales decision of the company do not influence the market price. Therefore, elasticity is not determined from a macro-economic perspective considering market prices but from a micro-economic perspective analyzing the specific spot demand forecasts the company receives. Table 24 provides the detailed steps of the algorithm for determining elasticity and the price-... 

Partial spot sales quantities are defined first for the partial quantity points 7=1, zmm, im,d and zmax as cornerstones for the turnover approximation. The zero point, minimum and maximum sales boundaries as well as the spot demand forecast are assigned as partial spot sales quantities to these cornerstones. 

Elasticity analysis algorithm as pragmatic approach to determine average price elasticity of aggregated demand forecasts that analyzes underlying customer price-quantity demand. 

Robust investment model for long-range capacity expansion of chemical processing networks under uncertain demand forecast scenarios. Computers el Chemical Engineering, 22, 1037. 

These demand forecasts assume that no major new uses for sulfur develop over the near term. Although a great deal of research has been devoted to developing new sulfur applications in recent years - and we believe that this work should continue - the recent and likely further rise in brimstone prices over the next few years will temporarily forestall the development of significant new markets for sulfur,... 

Following the energy demand forecasts [26], the gas consumption in Armenia will increase from about 2.5 bcm to 5.5 bcm in 2010 and 2020 respectively. The supply is planned to be secured from Russia using the existing North-South Caucasus Gas main transmission system via Georgia, and also from such new supply sources as Iran or others. 

It should be emphasised that the present gas demand forecast is (much) less optimistic than other forecasts prepared in recent years by the Ministry of Fuel and Energy and GGIC respectively. 

Figure 3 shows the crude runs necessary to meet our refined product demand forecast. The forecast includes two scenarios one of normal trendline growth portrayed by several industry observers and Pacefs own outlook for refinery crude runs based on a "cyclical11 economic forecasting model. Our forecast shows runs to crude stills will remain below 12.5 million barrels per day for the remainder of the decade. 

U.S. Energy Demand Forecast by AQCR, 1970-1985, Battelle Columbus... 

Each operation unit capacity is assumed to be designable within an upper and lower boundary to accommodate for any considered production rate. The product demand forecasts are given for a ten year horizon. The costs are represented by power functions which vary in terms of capacity exponents and hence different investment decisions for the process units are expected. The capacity exponents (c.f Table 1) for the cost functions are taken from Peters and Timmerhaus [5]. For the piecewise linear approximation of the cost function, two time intervals are considered as default. Due to maximum capacity restrictions, the overall capacity of the reactor and the product absorption unit is achieved by an installation of at least three parallel reactors and two... 

Based on the data mentioned in the previous section, the MILP model has been formulated. Due to the lack of space a thorough discussion of the model equation is impossible. The model has been solved applying the MILP solver SYIMPHONY [6]. For the product demand an initial 35% of the total product demand achieved in the tenth year was assumed with a linear progression. This product demand forecast was used for the conventional alternative and the stepwise capacity expansion. 

Nonetheless one should keep in mind that predictions of future developments in any direction has always been made but have proved wrong in most cases, as shown by the following examples. In the early 1980s an annual 4% growth in W demand was postulated. However, between 1980 and 1990 there was no actual growth and later there was a decrease. Average worldwide demand forecasts were 70,0001 W/a for 1990 and 80,0001... 

Nel WP, Cooper CJ (2008) A critical review of lEA s oil demand forecast for China. Energy Policy 36 1096-1106... 

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