Demand exceeding forecast

World-wide consumption of PVC [poly(vinyl chloride)] has increased dramatically in the past few years. It has now exceeded 8 billion lbs annually. The production of VCM (vinyl chloride monomer) has also been expanded to meet the PVC demand. Future trends for VCM and PVC pro-ductions for the next five years can be forecast on the basis of the raw materials sources, the different process techniques in manufacturing VCM and PVC, and their relative economics, technical merits, and limitations. VCM will be produced principally through the ethylene route by fluid-bed oxyhydrochlorination of ethylene and thermal cracking of ethylene dichloride. PVC will be produced by various processes resulting in more specialized PVC varieties tailored for specific end markets and new processing technologies. 

In 1975 world production of elemental sulfur exceeded 32.5 million tons (I). Exploitation by the Frasch process of the large deposits found in association with the salt domes of the Gulf Coast regions has made the United States the world s leading producer (5). In the U.S. a potential (although unlikely) production of 40 million tons of sulfur per year from all sources by the year 2000 has been forecast, compared with a forecast consumer demand of only 30 million tons (6). Greater use of oil sand, oil shale, and coal, again with sulfur extraction, holds further promise of increases in the supply of sulfur in western Canada, the U.S., and elsewhere. 

These two quotes (Table 1) come from one widely circulated forecast of the demand for new materials, it is representative of many produced in recent years. On this basis, the Office of Technology Assessment suggested that the market for advanced materials would grow to exceed 20 billion per annum by the end of the twentieth century. This was in-line with what others were saying at that time. 

The implementation of a new demand management system helped a large U.S. direct store delivery company improve forecasting accuracy by 4 percent and increased service levels by 6 percent. Despite growing volumes, the company was able to hold inventory costs flat. The company also found that based on the new forecast, the sales department was better equipped to plan profitable sales promotions. The project s savings exceeded expectations. 

When we switched to our new demand management solution, we saw our forecast accuracy improve immediately. We also saw service levels take off in a positive way and our inventories decreased. We exceeded our original projections the accuracy is driven by a change from a 50,000-foot view of forecasts to a more detailed look. Now we can talk about a particular deal with a retailer and know what kind of lift is generated and then that drives the supply chain. There is no second-guessing, said a demand planner at a food and beverage company. 

Product sales at customer zones cannot exceed the forecasted demands... 

An electronics manufacturer has outsourced production of its latest media players to a contract manufacturer in Asia. Demand for the players has exceeded all expectations, whereas the contract manufacturer has limited production capacity. The electronics manufacturer sells three types of players—a 40-GB player, a 20-GB player, and a 6-GB player. For the upcoming holiday season, the demand forecast for the 40-GB player is normally distributed, with a mean of... 

---