World energy demand forecast

FIGURE 11-2. Projections of energy demand and supply. (Sources Historical data from [1]) World energy demand forecast from [2] Fossil fuels and coal forecasts extrapolated from [3] and [4].)... 

The future for the energy sector looks buoyant. The International Energy Agency (lEA) has forecast that world energy demand is likely to rise by over 50% between now and 2030. Energy prices are expected to rise in the next few years in hne with increasing demand. 

The electric energy requirement for a future world hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle fleet that could replace the conventional vehicle fleet by 2050 has been estimated (Kruger, 2001, 2005). The parameters of the hydrogen vehicle fleet (HFleet) electric energy demand model, the extrapolated input values for 2010 (the date when industrial production is likely to start), and the historical mean annual growth rates are summarised in Table 2 together with current forecast values. 

All analyses and forecasts of global energy needs project large increases in the century ahead. For example, a projection from the International Panel on Climate Change [3] indicates that primary energy demand in the world may double by 2050, see Fig. 1. 

Table 5 shows the estimate of electricity demand carried out to 2050 based on a continued business-as-usual growth rate to 36 PWh. For production of 160 billion kg of hydrogen fuel, another 6 PWh of electric energy would be required. With the expectation that the world desire for use of renewable energy resources could result in supplying 50% of the forecast electricity demand by 2050, the other 50% would have to come from some combination of fossil and nuclear energy, labelled X and Y in Table 5. 

It may not be possible for petroleum to be completely replaced by alternative power sources in the foreseeable future. According to forecasts, the world demand will grow at the rate of 1.5 percent per year, and the supply will essentially not increase, unless Iraq gets a new quota to increase the volume of petroleum for export. Before the energy crisis in 1973, the world s oil extraction was practically doubled every ten years during the past 70 years. But now, only four member countries of OPEC (which hold 66% of the world oil reserves) can in-... 

Most such projections, based as they are on hopeful projections of economic development, forecast massive growth in global demand for energy services over the next century. As an example, the Case B projections [6] show a 3 to 5 fold increase in world economic output by 2050 and a 10 to 15 fold increase by 2100, see Fig. 4 in section 3.3.1. When improvements in energy intensity, (GDP/toe energy input), are figured in, this corresponds with a 1.5 to 3 fold increase in primary energy use by 2050 and 2 to 5 fold increase by 2100. 

In recent years, there has been a renewed interest in the use of nuclear power to meet the world s energy needs this stems from concerns over climate change, energy security, and a forecasted increase in the global demand for electricity [1]. The... 

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