United States demand forecast

Caustic Soda to Chlorine Balance. In 1988, the ratio of U.S. caustic soda to chlorine consumption was 0.96 1 (see Fig. 39). Since 1968 this ratio has ranged from alow of 0.88 1 (1978 and 1981) to a high of 0.98 1 (1969). No single factor can explain these variations, since caustic soda and chlorine, with few exceptions, have different markets and are therefore not driven by the same economic forces. This ratio is expected to trend upward over the next five years, however, since caustic soda consumption in the United States is forecasted to grow somewhat faster than chlorine consumption. It is expected that this ratio will remain within the range experienced in 1970—1990. Because caustic soda is co-produced with chlorine at a theoretical ratio of 1.1 1, a U.S. consumption ratio below that level results in excess avaHabihty of caustic soda. This material is typically shipped offshore to fill a significant export demand, and in 1988, for example, net U.S. exports of caustic soda amounted to 7.1% of production. 

The United States dominated world vanadium production for ah uses until the late 1960s when several countries, notably the former USSR, expanded production significantly. At about the same time, the United States shifted from being a net exporter to a net importer this situation continues. In 1978, the United States supphed 15% of the total world production but consumed 23%. World production values and anticipated capacities are shown in Table 5 (21) U.S. production and demand, as weh as forecasts, are shown in Table 6 (21). 

Forecast Trends. Copper demand is forecast to grow at a 1.9% rate in the United States and at a 2.7% rate in the world between 1989 and 2000, as shown in Table 8. Whereas consumption in the United States, Europe, and Japan is expected to increase at a relatively lower rate, other countries are expected to surpass these rates as their economies develop. 

Table 1 provides a forecast of the United States and world sulfur supply and demand for the years 1985 and 2000. Table 1 also includes estimates of the identified recoverable world sulfur reserves using 1978 technology at 1978 sulfur prices and at all price levels. A visual representation of the importance of price in determining the availability of sulfur is provided by Figure 1. Note that this figure is based on the assumption that these quantities of sulfur will be produced only if the sulfur price levels are maintained for a sufficient period of time. 

Worldwide demand is expected to grow at 3% to 5% per year from 2000 through 2005. Global acrylamide capacity was about 550,000 tonnes per year in 2002. World acrylamide demand was estimated at 400,000 tonnes in 2002 so capacity utilization is 80% to 85%. Growth in the United States was 5% per year from 1989 through 1998. It was predicted to be 4% per year from 1998 through 2003. Production in the United States was 165 million pounds in 1998, 170 million pounds in 1999, and it is forecast to be 205 million pounds in 2003281 283 ... 

The epoxy resin production value in the United States, western Europe, and Asia is estimated to be over 2.5 billion. Almost 900,000 metric tons (t) of epoxy resins is consumed in these regions with around 35 percent of the consumption in Asia. The overall global consumption in 2002 was approximately 970,0001 (2.14 billion lb) with a 4 to 5 percent annual growth rate.3 The 7 to 10 percent growth rate in the 1970s has slowed except in Asia. Future consumption will average about 2 to 4 percent per year from 2004 to 2008 in the United States and western Europe.4 In North America the demand for epoxy resins is forecast at 690 million lb, valued at 1.4 billion, in 2004.5... 

In 1975 world production of elemental sulfur exceeded 32.5 million tons (I). Exploitation by the Frasch process of the large deposits found in association with the salt domes of the Gulf Coast regions has made the United States the world s leading producer (5). In the U.S. a potential (although unlikely) production of 40 million tons of sulfur per year from all sources by the year 2000 has been forecast, compared with a forecast consumer demand of only 30 million tons (6). Greater use of oil sand, oil shale, and coal, again with sulfur extraction, holds further promise of increases in the supply of sulfur in western Canada, the U.S., and elsewhere. 

President s Materials Policy Commission, Resources for Freedom, 5 vol., June, 1952. Study of raw material requirements of the United States, 1950-1975. Major sections on chemicals, metals, minerals, fuels, agriculture, forest resources, water, and ocean resources. Forecasts demand for major chemicals and raw materials up to 1975. 

Figure 1. Total demand forecast for epoxy resins produced in the United States.

To illustrate the basic concepts, let us consider an example, altered from Bozarth and Handheld (2006). Assume that MeltoMatic Company manufactures and distributes snow blowers. Sales of MeltoMatic snow blowers are concentrated in the midwestern and northeastern states of the United States. Thus, the company has distribution centers (DCs) located in Minneapolis and Buffalo, both of which are supplied by MeltoMatic s manufacturing plant in Cleveland. Table 3.4 shows the DRP records for the Minneapolis and Buffalo DCs for MeltoMatic s two SKUs, Model SB-15 and Model SBX-25. The first three lines in the table sections devoted to each SKU at each DC provide the forecasted demand (requirements), D, the scheduled receipts, SR, already expected to arrive in future periods and the projected ending inventory in each period, C This last quantity. If, is computed on a period-by-period basis as follows ... 

Since 2010, however, a number of other major players have entered the market, including SK Innovation Co. (Korea) and Johnson Controls (USA). Not all of the capacity announced in 2010 has been realized, but expected demand has also dropped significantly. Subsidies in the United States have led to a large increase in capacity, resulting in overcapacity of between 50% and 100% [7]. At the same time, prices have fallen due to competition between cell manufacturers and lower costs resulting from technological advances. The price of PHEV cells for OEMs is now forecast to be just 250 USD/kWh in 2014/2015 [8]. 

Forecasting the future trend of any commodity in terms of availability, production, and price is somewhat hazardous, and for natural rubber is probably more hazardous than most. Some conditions exist, however, that would indicate natural rubber will be around for some time at reasonable prices. Although tire production in the United States may be on a plateau, the increasing industrialization of the Third World countries keeps world demand for elastomers rising and at a faster rate than natural production. Such countries, at least in the short term, increase production of trucks rather than passenger automobiles and truck tires require more natural rubber than do passenger tires. 

Demand forecasting becomes more challenging—Demand trends cannot be patterned after the United States in different cultures and environments. And often there is no local demand history on which one can base forecast estimates. 

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