World oil demand

Aircraft Fuels. Demand for aviation gas turbine fuels has been growing more rapidly than demand for other petroleum products since 1960, about 3—5% per year compared with 1% for all oil products. This strong demand reflects a current and predicted growth in worldwide air traffic of 4—7% annually until the end of the century. Total world oil demand will be up by 15% by the year 2000, but aviation fuel demand will increase by 50—125%. However, the fraction of the oil barrel devoted to aviation, now about 8%, will increase only slightly. 

The 1973 Yom Kippur war caused Arab oil producers to boycott oil exports to the United States and some allies. While the boycott may look like the culprit in the 1973 oil price shock, the cuts in exports actually did not last long, with the oil price increases continuing long after the Arab/Israeli war was over. The real reason why oil prices surged up and stayed there was because world oil demand was high, while Saudi Arabia and OPEC kept supplies low. OPEC used its market power to curtail its own oil exports in... 

Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. Rising world oil demand, tight world oil supplies, and declining U.S. oil and gas production have enabled OPEC to dramatically increase the price of its oil exports since 1973. 

The 300 million autos in the U.S. drive this transportation sector which causes the U.S. to import more than 60% of its oil. The world is predicted to have almost 4 billion vehicles by 2050. The U.S. Fuel Cell Council predicts that world oil demand will exceed 82 million barrels a year. The U.S. Energy Information Agency projects a demand of 121 million barrels a day by 2025. This could exceed 3 trillion with oil at 75 a barrel. 

The main source of energy for transportation is crude oil. In 1980, world oil demand was 65 million barrels per day. For the year 2000, actual world oil demand was 75 million barrels per day, essentially in line with projections made by Exxon in 1980. Proven reserves increased significantly between 1980 and 2000, due mainly to the impact of advanced technologies and increased exploration. 

A large part of the increased energy demand over time is due to the near absolute reliance on oil in the transportation sector. Total world oil demand is expected to increase from 77 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2003 to 119 mbd in 2025, a 55% increase (EIA 2005). This growth is fueled not just by continued demand in the industrialized world, but also by the rapid growth of oil demand in developing countries. Their share is projected to increase to 45% by 2025, up from 26% in 1990 (EIA 2005). 

The chemical share of the total world oil demand. Somewhat more than half of the chemical share is turned into plastics. It will be seen therefore that the greater part of the world s recovered oil is burnt to produce electrical power or for automotive proputeion etc. 

The percent of world oil production from the Middle East has changed over the years. In 1950, the Middle East produced about 16 percent of world production, but by 1975 it had a 35 percent market share of all production. That share declined to 25 percent by 1990 due to a decline in world demand, and stayed at that level through 1998. Eventually that share will rise. The big five Middle Eastern oil producers have the largest oil reserves in the world and therefore have the greatest potential to supply... 

Table 3.11 summarises the current projections of the production of unconventional oil, including synthetic fuels from coal and gas, until 2030. Today, unconventional fuels account for around 2% of world oil production of 81 Mb/day. Their future will depend on the oil price. If prices stay at relatively high levels, unconventional fuels could reach between 2.6 and 5.5 Gb (7 and 15 Mb/day) in 2030. According to the IEA (2006) WEO Reference Scenario, total oil production in 2030 will amount to 42.3 Gb (116 Mb/day). Hence, unconventional fuels would make up between 6% and 13% of total oil production in 2030, of which around one-third comes from oil sands. Unconventional fuels are not a silver bullet they can briefly delay the maximum rate of oil production, however, the global decline of production cannot be prevented in the short to medium term, if demand for oil continues to surge. 

Water pollution trends have particularly worsened in China in recent years. The industrial development (as certified from oil demand) and the intensive agriculture (China is the world s largest consumer of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers) pose a threat to water bodies. 

At this time of an escalating world oil crisis and particularly a shortage of refining facilities, a very rapid and permanent solution to the oil crisis and the rapidly increasing demand for electricity—and also much of the problem of the present pollution of the biosphere by combustion byproducts, and of the present global warming enhancement by the emitted CO2 from the hydrocarbon combustion—can be provided cheaply, widely, and expeditiously. 

Crude oil prices have been pushed by healthy demand led by China, which has outstripped new supply. Political concerns about the stability of the Middle East have combined with this tight supply-demand balance to enable the OPEC cartel to keep control of world oil pricing at a higher level than forecasted as recently as 2002. While a full examination of crude market prospects is beyond the scope of this chapter, the long-term outlook is for OPEC to continue to hold crude oil prices above USD 30/bbl due to the revenue needs of major OPEC member countries. At the same time, the expectation is for oil prices to continue to exhibit considerable volatility around that price. 

BDF is eco-friendly fuel because of its non-toxicity, biodegradability, low concentration of small particulate matter and SOx in exhaust gas, and because it does not add to the amount of carbon in the total environment. In addition, conversion of waste edible oil to BDF contributes to the reduction and recycle of the waste material. These advantages have attracted attention all over the world European demand for BDF was 3.2 million tons in 2005, and estimated to double in 2006. In United States, which firstly proposed BDF, the demand was 260 thousand tons in 2005. In Japan, meanwhile, several local governments including Kyoto city produce BDF from waste edible oil to use as a fuel for public transportation, but the total demand in 2005 was only several thousand tons because of difficulty of collecting used frying oils from households. 

Another view to consumption is that the world consumption of crude oil and liquids from natural gas in 2001 reached 76 million barrels per day (MMbpd). North America is the largest energy consumer at 24.1 MMbpd. The Asia-Pacific regional demand is steadily increasing. In 2001, Asia-Pacific comprised 27.2 percent of the world s oil demand, up from 20 percent in 1990.2 Crude oil s share of primary energy consumption was 39.4 percent in 2001. Thus, petroleum oil and natural gas remain the steadfast energy sources globally, as shown in Fig. 18.1.2... 

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