Expert opinion

Human error probabilities can also be estimated using methodologies and techniques originally developed in the nuclear industry. A number of different models are available (Swain, Comparative Evaluation of Methods for Human Reliability Analysis, GRS Project RS 688, 1988). This estimation process should be done with great care, as many factors can affect the reliability of the estimates. Methodologies using expert opinion to obtain failure rate and probability estimates have also been used where there is sparse or inappropriate data. 

The severe accident research program improved public risk assessment, reduced uncertainties, and the reliance on subjective expert opinion. To close two severe accident issues in NRC s Severe Accident Research Plan (NUREG-1365) Mark I Liner Attack and Direct Containment Heating (DCH) were addressed with a new approach using the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Method (ROAAM) (Theofanous, 1994, 1989). The resolution of the Mark-I Liner Attack issue constitutes the first full demonstration of ROAAM. It emphasizes the determinism and provides a basis for synergistic collaboration among experts through a common communication frame. 

Kaplan, S., 1989, Expert Information vs Expert Opinion Another Approach to the Problem of Eliciting/Combining/Using Expert Opinion in PRA, PSA-89, p. 593. 

Pipe Break Frequency Estimation for Nuclear Power Plants Nuclear 19 occunences of pipe failures (breaks), supplemented by expert-opinion estimates Leaks of 1 gpm for 2 inches in diameter pipe 50 gpm tor all pipe for 81 nuclear plants 101. 

Sieczkarski SB, Whittaker GR (2005) Viral entry, Curr Top Microbiol Immunol 285 1-23 Snell NJ (2001). Ribavirin-current status of a broad spectrum antiviral agent. Expert opinion on pharmacotherapy 2 1317-1324... 

Graphical User Interfaces Informing Models Prospective Sources Retrospective Sources Expert Opinion Robustness (What-If Analyses)... 

A variety of data sources are available to inform interactive programs, including prospective data sets, retrospective databases, expert opinion, and unpub-lished/published literature. Time horizon, that is, the length of time into the future considered in the analysis over which costs and outcomes are projected, is very important here [26]. For example, if a clinical trial or the published literature only report short-term results for a chronic condition, the outcomes may come into question. This is where decision-analytic models may come... 

Expert opinion is a source, frequently elicited by survey, that is used to obtain information where no or few data are available. For example, in our experience with a multicountry evaluation of health care resource utilization in atrial fibrillation, very few country-specific published data were available on this subject. Thus the decision-analytic model was supplemented with data from a physician expert panel survey to determine initial management approach (rate control vs. cardioversion) first-, second-, and third-line agents doses and durations of therapy type and frequency of studies that would be performed to initiate and monitor therapy type and frequency of adverse events, by body system and the resources used to manage them place of treatment and adverse consequences of lack of atrial fibrillation control and cost of these consequences, for example, stroke, congestive heart failure. This method may also be used in testing the robustness of the analysis [30]. 

Decision analytic models, or simulation models of clinical decision analysis, usually involve the creation of a treatment decision/outcome tree based on a synthesis of expert opinion, sometimes using validated methods of canvassing opinion such as recruiting a Delphi panel (Hatziandreu et al, 1994 Einarson et al, 1995). The decision tree... 

Alternatively, some studies used expert opinion to extrapolate the effectiveness of donepezil over a longer period (Neumann et al, 1999 O Brien et al, 1999). However, it is recognized that expert opinion can be the weakest source of evidence, which introduces considerable uncertainty into the analysis and interpretation of the results. In addition, the cost-effectiveness of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors depends heavily on the distribution of the cohort of patients across different severity states. O Brien s team found that the results of their model were very sensitive to this variable. In this context, the correct... 

To be useful to those concerned with choices in the allocation of health and social care resources, the data for economic evaluations need to be timely, relevant, credible and accurate (Davies, 1998). As a minimum, the costs associated with the interventions should be estimated from activity data, which quantify resources used, and price or unit cost data. Often evidence from well-controlled prospective trials with high internal validity is required to establish whether differences in economic end points are directly attributable to the interventions. However, the economic evaluations of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors estimated costs from retrospective analysis of available datasets Qonsson et al, 1999b), analysis of published literature (e.g. Stewart et al, 1998) and expert opinion (e.g. O Brien et al, 1999 Neumann et al, 1999). This means that it is not clear whether differences in costs were due to the anticholinesterase inhibitors or to other factors such as availability of services in different areas, the living situation of the patient, or disease severity. 

Nevertheless, based on our own considerations and on expert opinions given in the literature, it is aimed in the following to provide as far as possible a comprehensive overview. 

Better chemistry through confinement economy of scale limits and expenditure of scale-up micro reactors origin from microfabrication expert opinions general advantages of micro flow hybrid construction industry s efforts chip micro reactors numbering-up vision of computer-like chemical workstation [205]. 

Tausend Kandlejur eine Reaktion, Chemische Rundschau, February 2003 Industrial and institutional expert opinions general advantages of micro flow safety work of institutes particle precipitation pilot-scale operation challenges process control plugging miniature sensing and controlling emulsification market situation [204]. 

Vor dem Sprung in die Produktion, Chemie Produktion, December 2002 Prognoses on speed of implementation PAMIRmarket study industry s demands numbering-up risks expert opinions Clariant pigment micro-reactor production smallness not an end in itself general advantages of micro flow industrial process development and optimization share of reactions suited for micro reactors hybrid approach standardized interfaces start of industrial mass production of micro reactors unit construction kit [208],... 

Die Fabrik auf dem Chip, Spektrum der Wissenschafi, October 2002 Miniaturization and modularization of parts of future chemical apparatus general advantages of micro flow expert opinions specialty and fine chemical applications leading position of German technology flexible manufacture large-capacity micro reactors reformers for small-capacity applications compatible and automated micro-reaction systems process-control systems temperature and pressure sensors [209]. 

Interview with Worz/BASF in a special on heat exchangers giving expert opinion on compact heat exchangers, feasibility and problems of large-scale implementation of micro reactors measuring tool for process optimization exotic status. scale-up unit-construction kit industrial implementation in 5 years [216],... 

Microreactors find new niches, Achema Daily/Chemical Engineering, June 1997 Conclusions on IMRETl micro-reactor exhibitors at ACHEMA 1997 expert opinions industry s commitment general advantages of micro flow views on commercialization extended list of leading institutes and companies activities topological approach numbering-up [226],... 

So far, no scientific extrapolation has been published on the cost savings for the chemical industry when using micro reactors. Industrial experience is also not known at least, it has not been communicated. Thus, one is boimd to rely on expert opinions given in the press and trade press. Mostly these come from suppliers of the technology, aiming to convince industry of the benefits of their systems, by prognosis of a return on investment. Considering the pharmaceutical R D efforts of the order of US 50 billion worldwide, CPC/Mainz sees a potential for an increase in profit of more than US 15 billion if micro reactors are implemented consequently [246]. 

Hartung HP, Munschauer F, Schellekens H. Significance of neutralizing antibodies to interferon beta during treatment of multiple sclerosis expert opinions based on the Proceedings of an International Consensus Conference. Eur J Neurol 2005 12 588-601. 

Another recent tool has been developed within the ORCHESTRA project. The tool keeps into account both the chemometric information and the toxicity predictions done by the model, and in particular what kind of errors have been done by the model. It applies to the CAESAR QSAR models. Furthermore, this tool is based not only on the a priori data and information, as the other approaches, but also on the a posteriori result of the model. The user knows if the model can or cannot be used for a certain compound. In some cases a warning is given, recommending expert opinion. In all cases the reasons for the reliability is given, and it can be evaluated in a transparent way. 

Nanoparticles for biomedical imaging. Expert Opinion on Drug Delivery, 6 (11), 1175-1194. 

Faunce, T.A. (2008) Toxicological and public good considerations for the regulation of nanomaterial-containing medical products. Expert Opinion on Drug Safety, 7 (2), 103-106. 

Galm, U. and Shen, B. (2006) Expression of biosynthetic gene clusters in heterologous hosts for natural product production and combinatorial biosynthesis. Expert Opinion on Drug Discovery, 1, 409. 

C. Abad-Zapatero, Expert Opinion Drug Discov., 2007, 2, 469-488. 

Donadio, S., Monciardini, P., Brandi, L., Sosio, M., and Gualerzi, C. O. (2007). Novel assays and novel strains—Promising routes to new antibiotics Expert Opinion on Drug Discovery. Accepted for publication. 

So it came to pass that Carl Krauch was an office boy emeritus. His authority "was limited largely to giving expert opinions and technical advice" in the chemical field. The judgment included a chart of his position that had been out of date since 1936, in... 

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