Decision-maker

The objective of an EIA Is to document the potential physical, biological, social and health effects of a planned activity. This will enable decision makers to determine whether an activity is acceptable and if not, identify possible alternatives. Typically, ElA s will be carried out for... 

The results of the assessment are documented in an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), which discusses the beneficial and adverse impacts considered to result from the activity. The report is one component of the information upon which the decision maker ultimately makes a choice. A final decision can be made with due regard being paid to the likely consequences of adopting a particular course of action, and where necessary by introducing appropriate monitoring programs. 

The technique is based on the methods of linear algebra and the theoiy of games. When the problem contains many multibranched decision points, a computer may be needed to follow all possible paths and hst them in order of desirability in terms of the quantitative criterion chosen. The decision maker may then concentrate on the routes at the top of the list and choose from among them by using other, possibly subjective criteria. The technique has many uses which are weh covered in an extensive hterature and wih not be further considered here. 

Lack of infoimation. In some instances, the information needed to make a pollution-prevention decision may be confidential or is difficult to obtain. In addition, many decision makers are simply unaware of the potential opportunities available regarding information to aid in the implementation of a pollution-prevention program. 

Lack of awareness of pollution prevention advantages. As mentioned in reason no. 5, decision makers may merely be uninformed of the benefits associated with pollution reduction. 

Risk Estimation There are a number of risk measures which can be estimated. The specific risk measures chosen are generally related to the study objective and depth of study, and any preferences or requirements established by the decision makers. Generally, risk measures can be broken down into three categories risk indices, individual risk measures, and societal risk measures. 

Wfiat the decision maker wants is access to hojte. G.L.S. SHACKLE... 

The core function of QRA is to provide information for decision making. QRA results in and of themselves cannot prove anything. However, decision makers can compare QRA risk estimates to their own risk tolerance criteria to decide whether a plant or operation is safe enough. The same QRA results can support both the plant manager s contention that the plant is safe, as well as the community activist s claim that the plant is unsafe. The difference lies in the individual s risk tolerance, not the QRA. 

QRA results can guide decision makers in their quest for continuous improvement in risk reduction, but zero risk is an unattainable goal. Any activity involves some risk. Even if it were hypothetically possible to eliminate the risk of every accident scenario in a QRA, some risk would still remain because no QRA examines every possible accident scenario. At best a QRA identifies the dominant contributors to risk from the system as it existed at the time of the analysis. Once those are eliminated, other minor risk contributors (including many that were left out of the original QRA because they were negligible contributors, as well as new risks introduced by changes to eliminate the original risks) remain as the new dominant risk contributors. 

The use of relative results alone could encourage managers to make unnecessary improvements. Decision makers must use their judgment to make these decisions based on other information (e.g., qualitative... 

A valuable QRA result is the importance of various components, human errors, and accident scenarios contributing to the total risk. The risk importance values highlight the major sources of risk and give the decision maker a clear target(s) for redesign or other loss prevention efforts. For example, two accident scenarios may contribute 90% of the total risk once you realize that, it is obvious that you should first focus... 

In the past, qualitative approaches for hazard evaluation and risk analysis have been able to satisfy the majority of decision makers needs. In the future, there will be an increasing motivation to use QRA. For the special situations that appear to demand quantitative support for safety-related decisions, QRA can be effective in increasing the manager s understanding of the level of risk associated with a company activity. Whenever possible, decision makers should design QRA studies to produce relative results that support their information requirements. QRA studies used in this way are not subject to nearly as many of the numbers problems and limitations to which absolute risk studies are subject, and the results are less likely to be misused. 

If decision makers choose to use QRA, they must then define the analysis objectives so the results will satisfy the particular decisionmaking requirement. Because the cost of performing QRA is dependent... 

The decision maker must weigh the qualitative and quantitative PSA insights and other information. There is no cookbook answer to this question, because it will depend heavily on the nature of the issue, the results of the PSA, the nature of other information, and other factors affecting overall ludgmcnt. The PSA should provide for the following needs ... 

Scope and depth of the PSA should match the needs of the decision maker. 

Stamatelatos, M. et al., Value-Impact Methodology for Decision Makers, EPRl NP-2529, August. 

If you have circulated drafts of the plan, or portions of it, to your company s decision-makers, a full-blown presentation may not be necessary. However, you may find the discipline of following an outline such as the one provided above useful in organizing less formal discussions, either individually or with groups. 

After intakes have been estimated, they arc organized by population, as appropriate. Then, tlie sources of uncertainty (e.g., variability in analytical data, modeling results, parameter assumptions) and their effect on tlie exposure estimates are evaluated and sunuiumzed. Tliis information on uncertainty is important to site decision-makers who must evaluate tlie results of the e.xposure... 

Altliough the technical conununity has come a long way in understanding how to do a better job in luizard identification, dose-response assessment, and exposure assessment portions of risk assessment, it lias only begun to understand how to best cluiractcrize hcaltli risks and how to present tliese risks most appropriately to both the public and decision makers. Tlie next tliree sections specifically address tlicse issues. Tliis section deals witli qualitative risk assessment while tlie next two sections deal witli quantitative risk assessment. 

Thus, tlie focus of tliis subsection is on qualitative/semiquantitative approaches tliat can yield useful information to decision-makers for a limited resource investment. There are several categories of uncertainties associated with site risk assessments. One is tlie initial selection of substances used to characterize exposures and risk on tlie basis of the sampling data and available toxicity information. Oilier sources of uncertainty are inlierent in tlie toxicity values for each substance used to characterize risk. Additional micertainties are inlierent in tlie exposure assessment for individual substances and individual exposures. These uncertainties are usually driven by uncertainty in tlie chemical monitoring data and tlie models used to estimate exposure concentrations in tlie absence of monitoring data, but can also be driven by population intake parameters. As described earlier, additional micertainties are incorporated in tlie risk assessment when exposures to several substances across multiple patliways are suimned. 

Numerous factors affect the spread of luizardous substances into tlie area surrounding a leaking/buming container or contaituuent vessel. Evacuation decision-makers must carefully consider each of tliese factors in order to determine the conditions created by the release, tlie areas tluit have been or will be affected, and the heiilth affects on people. The factors tliat affect evacuation include amount of released material(s), physical and cheniical properties of the released material(s), health hazards, dispersion pattern, rate of release, and potential duration of release. Each of these factors is explained below. 

Meridian Corporation. (1986). Waste-to-Energy A Primer for Utility Decision-Makers. Golden, CO Western Area Power Administration. 

The schedule of projects must often be adjusted to reflect the influence of the key decision maker assigned to the work. If he requires complete detailed figures before reaching any decision, time will necesssuily be consumed. On the other hand if he applies judgment and experience to the basic factors (less details), then the over-all direction of the project can be continually pointed in a profitable direction in the minimum of time. In reality actual multipliers are often applied to the time schedule of a project to reflect the type of decision-maker involved. 

An ElA can be particularly useful in distinguishing the relative environmental impact of alternative sites, processes and strategies for industrial, rural or urban development. Decision-makers to choose the alternative that will provide maximum economic and social benefits with the minimum of environmental disturbance can then use this essential environmental information, together with financial and political considerations. Guidelines for assessing... 

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