Market , automotive

Because of capacity expansions in recent years, China s domestic production of motor vehicles has been advancing rapidly. Total motor vehicle output in 1988 was 509 242 vehicles and advanced annually 23.7% to 1 452 697 vehicles in 1993. In 1998, the total output reached 2 069 069 vehicles, growing 7.3% per annum. Output increased to 2 650 000 vehicles in 2003 and will rise to 3 511 000 vehicles by the year 2008, growing 5.1% and 5.8%, respectively as China s standard of living continue to improve. 

China will remain a large importer of motor vehicles. But the volume will decrease because the increase of foreign investment in the domestic motor vehicle industry will enable China to meet the demand from the marketplace. In 1998, the import volume was 37 903 vehicles, reducing to 20 000 by the year 2003 and it is forecast that China s motor vehicle imports will further decline to 10 000 vehicles by the year 2008. At the same time, Chinese exports will greatly increase in the future due to the improvement of Chinese motor vehicle quality. In 1998, the export volume was 10 100 vehicles. It increased to 18 000 vehicles in 2003, and will advance to 27 000 vehicles by the year 2008. 

Passenger car production was 86 757 vehicles in 1988 and increased to 415 226 vehicles in 1993. In 2003, the total output of cars increased to 853 000 vehicles due to the strong demand from the consumer market. Truck demand will continue to be driven by the growing demand from distant transportation and family utility applications. The total output of trucks increased to 910 000 vehicles in 2003 and will further increase to 1 143 000 by the year 2008. With the development of city traffic, demand for buses will remain strong. The total output of all kinds of buses was 700 387 vehicles in 1998, which is forecast to increase to 945 000 vehicles in 2008, growing 3.04% per annum. Demand for motor vehicles will remain strong. 

36 Plastics China Technologies, Markets and Growth Strategies to 2008 

Passenger Cars ( 000 vehicles) Trucks and Buses ( 000 vehicles) Automotive Growth Rate (%) 

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Some other phenol derivatives are somewhat local in appHcation. Eor example, aniline is produced from phenol at only two plants, one in Japan and one in the United States. Likewise, phenol is used in the production of nylon, via caprolactam (qv) or adipic acid (qv) by only one United States producer and one European producer. These markets, like the phenoHc resin and polycarbonate markets, are quite cycHcal. Thus, the entire phenol market tends to be cycHcal and closely tied to the housing and automotive markets. 

Economic Aspects. PBT is one of the fastest growing commercial thermoplastics. In 1993 the North American market alone exceeded 90,000 t, a 15% increase over 1992 (174). This rapid growth was accounted for mainly by the electrical and electronic and automotive markets, which together accounted for over half the PBT used. The principal manufacturers of PBT in North America, Europe, and Japan are shown in Table 9. 

World production of lead—acid batteries in 1988, excluding the Eastern European central economy countries, has been estimated at 9.45 biUion. The automotive market was 6743 million or 211.6 million units. Industrial battery sales were 2082 million and consumer battery sales were 454 million. Motorcycle batteries accounted for an additional 170 million or 25 million units. Most batteries are produced in the United States, Western Europe, and Japan, but smaller numbers are produced worldwide. The breakdown in sales for the three production areas foUows. Automotive battery sales were 2304 million in the United States, 1805 in Western Europe, and 945 million in Japan. Industrial battery sales were 525 million in the United States, 993 million in Western Europe, and 266 million in Japan. Consumer battery sales were 104 million in the United States, 226 million in Japan, and 82 million in Western Europe. More than half of all motorcycle batteries are produced in Japan and Taiwan (1). 

Further reduction in the price of carbon fibers may enable penetration into the automotive market. A primary carbon fiber producer has armounced that prices will drop to 700 yen/kg ( 6.80/lb) by 1995 (73) and that cooperative development efforts with a main Japanese automobile producer are underway. Development for use in constmction, such as cement and cable reinforcement, and marine apphcations will result in sustained growth volume through the eady twenty-first century. 

Worldwide acetal resin capacity is ca 228,000 t/yr (47). Apphcations are tied to the consumer, apphance, constmction, and automotive markets and will probably grow only as fast as the world economy. Growth rates of 2—10% are projected for various areas (42). 

The achievements of a small Canadian startup company, Ballard Power Systems, in Vancouver, are the main reason for my view that polymeric-membrane cells have the automotive market at their feet. The stages of the company s achievements. 

Solvent-home urethanes are still widely used to bond leather and athletic shoes. The OEM automotive market uses some solvent-home urethanes together with chlorosulfonated polyethylene as a primer. Some urethane solvent-home packaging adhesives are used for cap liners and for paper and foil lamination. Some textile laminating applications are still based on solvent-home urethanes. 

We just cannot expect situations like golf clubs and tennis rackets for all consumer products because all products do not have those same built-in characteristics of the competitive edge. When we consider a car, we must be realistic and acknowledge that the car must have a price low enough for people to afford. Think back to the days of Henry Ford he made a car that could be sold for about 250, so that everyone could afford to have one. This affordability was the real beauty of his mass-production techniques. Everyone could afford to have a car, and then almost everyone did have one. In contrast, before Henry Ford, only the rich could afford an automobile. As soon as we get to the trade-off where composite materials will effectively compete in the automotive market place, we will see tremendously broader applications, but there are problems along the way. The manufacturing cost must be improved in order for those applications to ever come about. 

Flexible foams are used in applications where a high degree of resiliency is required with moderate load-bearing capacity. Essentially all foam seating is urethane based, including the furniture and automotive markets. Other examples are packaging, textiles, filters, sports equipment, and recreational items. 

The fuel cell and automotive markets seem to be a large market for low-cost (< 100/ sensor) hydrogen sensors. Low power sensors are in high demand for multiple-point operations in fuel cells and internal combustion engines. 

Low-profile additives, which control shrinkage, have emerged as a distinct science and class of additive. Unsaturated polyester resins, as do all thermosetting polymers, shrink when cured. Low-profile additives are a major class of additives used to control shrinkage, which vastly improves surface quality. This science is credited with the opening of automotive markets where surface quality is of prime importance. In exterior automotive body panels, Class A surfaces are required for market acceptance. 

Low-profile additives are generally materials such as poly (vinyl acetate), polystyrene, polyethylene or polycarbonate. During the unsaturated polyester cure cycle, the low-profile additives separate into a second phase, which expand to counteract the shrinkage of the curing unsaturated polyester resin. Material development and the science of low-profile additives have helped create substantial markets for unsaturated polyesters. Their use in automotive markets, where Class A show room quality surfaces is a requirement, is an example of this. 

The automotive market must be segmented into several sub-markets with differing functions, environmental stresses and requirements. 

OEM supplier to automotive market. Innovator in multimedia integration with affiliate ties to Microsoft, Intel, Bang Olufsen, Nintendo, ... 

The refinishing side of the automotive market is growing considerably faster, because the applications have been developing over the past decade and represent numerous advantages, such as efficiency and improved environment, due to drastic reduction of the use of solvents and due to improved practices. 

To assist the market research and market development people in their endeavor to locate and develop potential automotive markets for their products, I would like to describe the various stages of product development to give you a better appreciation of our organization. 

The Declining Market for Linear Phthalates in Automotive Upholstery. The major market for linear phthalates has historically been automotive upholstery. However, the U.S. built share of the automotive market has continued to decline, and the trend (now a landslide) to smaller cars has resulted in a sharp decrease in demand for domestic vinyl upholstery. Besides this, fashion trends have turned to increased use of non-vinyl upholstery. Finally, the use of softer vinyls with higher plasticizer levels means increased opportunities in the automotive upholstery market for diisodecyl phthalate (DIDP). DIDP meets the low temperature requirements of these new softer vinyls, and at the same time offers reduced windshield fogging and lower cost on a... 

In the case of the market segment for power delivery, DLCs fill the gap existing between batteries and electrolytic capacitors. In comparison with DLCs, batteries have approximately 10 times more energy density and 10 times less power density. On the other hand, electrolytic capacitors have approximately 10 times less energy density and 10 times more power density. In addition to the fact that the DLCs can provide more power than batteries, they may also be deeply cycled in voltage several millions of times. Moreover, they do not need any maintenance to fulfill their function without failure over a longer lifetime. The major applications for power DLCs are expected in the automotive market. 

The DLC manufacturer developments are driven by the cost required to meet the automotive market goals. The price pressure bounces indirectly on the carbon and electrolyte suppliers. 

To put some additional context around demand for hydrogen-powered vehicles, their biggest competitor in the near-term is likely to come from hybrid (gas-electric powered) vehicles. Unlike hydrogen-powered vehicles, hybrid vehicles are priced comparably to gas-only powered vehicles, and already are gaining widespread acceptance in the consumer automotive market. However, hybrids face their own challenges—in the U.S., they are expected to account for only 20 percent of the total car market in five years.29... 

When will vehicular fuel cells achieve the durability, efficiency, cost, and performance needed to gain a meaningful share of the automotive market The future demand for hydrogen depends on the answer. 

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