Sales, probabilities

Little is known of the market for acetyl chloride. The production and sales are beUeved to be small, but may have potential for very large scale-up. The total U.S. market may amount to only 500 t annually. Acetyl chloride must be shipped in polyethylene-lined dmms having capacities of only 220 L it must be labeled as a corrosive substance. Acetyl chloride generated captively from purchased raw materials probably has a unit value of no more than 0.92—0.95/kg. Shipping costs and other factors set the price at about 3/kg for the commercial trade. 

Although a tremendous number of fermentation processes have been researched and developed to various extents, only a couple of hundred ate used commercially. Fermentation industries have continued to expand in terms of the number of new products on the market, the total volume (capacity), and the total sales value of the products. The early 1990s U.S. market for fermentation products was estimated to be in the 9-10 x 10 range. The total world market is probably three times that figure, and antibiotics continue to comprise a primary share of the industry. Other principal product categories are enzymes, several organic acids, baker s yeast, ethanol (qv), vitamins (qv), and steroid hormones (qv). 

It is axiomatic that sales analysis depends on detailed records of sales of a specific chemical to a specific company. Paramount to the success of such studies is the existence of data recorded on a systematic and continuous basis. It follows that these studies are done best by an ia-house staff on products already produced by the company. However, on occasion, a product new to the company can be studied by the ia-house group with the assistance of their field sales force. For example, a producer of polypropylene could use its people to secure data on the consumption of other thermoplastics by their customers. Such an exercise might identify opportunities for a new producer, but a more detailed marketing research study would probably be done before entry iato the new product area was made. 

By 1960, the elements of modem membrane science had been developed, but membranes were used in only a few laboratory and smaU, specialized industrial appHcations. No significant membrane industry existed, and total annual sales of membranes for aU appHcations probably did not exceed 10 million in 1990 doUars. Membranes suffered from four problems that prohibited their widespread use as a separation process they were too unreHable, too slow, too unselective, and too expensive. Partial solutions to each of these problems have been developed since the 1960s, and in the 1990s membrane-based separation processes are commonplace. 

Although several companies have produced polyarylates, Unitika in Japan and Hoechst-Celanese are the only ones active in the marketplace. Unitika resin is marketed in the United States by Amoco Performance Polymers under the Ardel trademark. The reason for this decline may be the competition of PC, polyester carbonates, and polysulfone resins. Worldwide sales are quite small, probably less than 1000 t/yr. 

Polyester carbonate resins are made by the interfacial process described for standard PC resins. The phthalate units are introduced by reaction of the appropriate phthaloyl dichlorides concurrent with the phosgenation. At present, Bayer, GE, and Miles produce polyester carbonate resins (47) sales volume is low, probably ca 100 t/yr. Polyester carbonates are used primarily in appHcations requiring 5—25°C higher heat-deflection temperature and better hydrolytic performance than are provided by standard PC resins. Properties are given in Table 9. 

Example 6 Calculation of Probability of Meeting a Sales Demand A store that is open 5 days a week is to promote a new product. The manager heheves that not more than 5 units will he sold in any one day, hut he cannot he more precise about the probable sales pattern. Stocks are dehvered once per week. What size should the first order he to give a 95 percent certainty of meeting demand ... 

Example 7 Calculation of Probability of Sales The records of a business show that never more than 1 item is sold in a day and that 2 sales per week can be expected. What is the probability of selling between 90 and 120 items in a 300-day year ... 

For a new produc4, the ratio of manufacturing expense to sales price Ch e/cs should be compared with the ratio of total manufacturing cost or expense to sales revenue for the company as a whole. If the ratio Ch e/cs is less than or equal to the ratio for the company, then the proposed sales price appears to be reasonable and the product is probably commerci ly viable. This comparison is, of course, used only as an approximate guide in preliminary assessments. 

The effeet of failure eost or quality loss on the profitability of a produet development projeet is shown in Figure 1.1. High levels of failure eost would produee a loss on sales and would probably mean that the projeet fails to reeover its initial level of investment. 

Table 1.2, based on Modern Plastics sources, provides USA consumption figures (based on sales data) for the main groups of plastics materials. The figures probably underestimate the global importance of the major tonnage thermoplastics since these are also manufactured in quantity in developing countries and OPEC countries. 

Use this exercise to create a comprehensive, current inventory of the benefits that are unique to your PSM system. The next step is to describe these benefits in terms of the people you want on board. Think about each one in terms of the people whose support you need. These will probably fall into several categories, and it s important to distinguish them from one another, since, as in any sales situation, you must personalize benefits and make them relevant to the customer s interests. 

Breakdown in communications between the building industry and plastic manufacturer probably accounts for a large amount of lost motion and dollars. Perhaps another major cause is the pure sales approach within any industry that, in many cases, can delay technical progress. 

In 1991, 12.5 million gallons of fire resistant fluids (probably including water-in-oil emulsions) were sold this is the lowest sales volume since 1985 (NPRA 1992). No detailed breakdown of water-in-oil emulsion hydraulic fluids was provided in NPRA (1992). 

Example A commercial item is sold in a retail outlet as a unit product. In the past, sales have averaged 10 units per month with no seasonal variation. The retail outlet must order replacement items 2 months in advance. If the outlet starts the next 2-month period with 25 items on hand, what is the probability that it will stock out before the end of the second month ... 

If the addition is made at the flour mill this grade of flour can be supplied directly to the bakery for use. This solution suits the large plant bakery and the domestic baker. Adding a concentrate to a mix derived from a bag of baker s flour is a solution that suits a small baker or a supermarket in-store bakery. There is then no need to stock an extra grade of flour for a product that will probably have a small sale. 

Electronic Materials. Applications of photopolymer technology to electronic products is probably one of the largest imaging categories in terms of sales and total number of patents and publications. A wide variety of products have been developed for the production of printed wiring boards (PWB) and the manufacture of integrated circuits (IC). 

Coatings and Surface Modifications. Probably the one application of photopolymer chemistry that has the most worldwide commercial value in terms of product sales is the use of photopolymer materials for curable coatings. Most of the wood paneling and less expensive furniture manufactured today utilize UV or electron-beam curable materials for decorative finishes (e.g. simulation of wood grain) and protective coatings. In addition, the surfaces of many commercially important materials (e.g. textile fibers and polyester films) are being modified by photopolymer processes. 

Scott Goetz was asked whether the 911 attack change the market for chemical agent detectors. We ve been in this market for thirty years this is what we do for a living, we were making detectors before 911, making more detectors after 911. We had sold the APD 2000, we d sold probably 500 or 600 detectors before 911, so none of these are new instruments or new markets for us. It s basically what we do for a living, but we certainly have seen an increase in sales since 911. 

Given that actions may overlap, we must take a broader view of the meaning of a postcondition. For example, sale means that, somewhere between the start and the end of the action, the wholesaler s till gets fatter by the price of the items. But does it If you compare the actual contents of the till before and after the sale, the difference is probably not the same as is documented. It depends on what else has happened during that interval other sales may have been completed the manager may have taken the cash to the bank there may have been a refund or a robbeiy. 

Commodity-related models focus on demand volatility and uncertainty in volumes and prices as with sales quantity flexibility. Several authors proposed models to handle demand uncertainty in general focusing on quantities (Cheng et al. 2003 Gupta/Maranas 2003 Cheng et al. 2004 Chen/Lee 2004). Uncertainty is reflected by demand quantity scenarios and/or probabilities. Proposed models maximize expected or robust profit. Process industry-specific models use simulation to address demand uncertainty and to determine optimal inventory levels (Jung et al. 2004). 

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