Predicting Survival

A model has been developed to predict one-year survival using age, functional status prior to acute illness, and presence of diabetes (93). One-year survival was just 5% for patients older than 65 or 75 years, with poor prior functional status. In a recent report, 

Further work is required to validate these models and to determine an impact on decision making. Because transfer to an LTAC involves selection based on illness severity, payer status, or rehabilitation potential, future investigations should focus on patients identified in the ICU setting. 

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Anderson CS, Jamrozik KD, Broadhurst RJ, Stewart-Wynne EG. Predicting survival for 1 year among different subt)fpes of stroke results from the Perth Commnity Stroke Study. Stroke 1994 25 1935-1944. 

Life expectancy has greatly increased from a predicted survival of 16 years in 1970 to more than 40 years for patients born in the 1990s.5 The average age of patients in the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Registry is now more than 16 years, and many are living far into adulthood. More than 40% of CF patients in the 2004 Registry annual report are over 18 years old, and the oldest is age 74.13... 

Herrmann, S., Schmidt-Petersen, K., Pfeifer, J., et al. (2001) A polymorphism in the endothe-lin-A receptor gene predicts survival in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Eur. Heart]. 22, 1948-1953. 

However, another large meta-analysis study found no difference between different viability testing methods for predicting survival after revascularization, suggesting that decisions driven by viability studies are clinically equivalent and have similar outcomes, irrespective of the technique used [88]. While improved LV function is a major factor affecting... 

The metabolic effects of a neoadjuvant chemotherapy/radiochemotherapy can be assessed during and after treatment. Evaluation late in the course of treatment and after completion of treatment may predict survival and may be associated with the amount of residual viable tumor cells and histopathologic tumor response. However, the therapeutic relevance of this prognostic information is limited, as it is obtained too late for alteration of therapeutic strategy. Therefore, it is considered important to differentiate between response and nonresponse early in the course of neoadjuvant therapy. 

R.J. Downey, T. Akhurst, M. Gonen, A. Vincent, M.S. Bains, S. Larson, V. Rusch, Preoperative F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography maximal standardized uptake value predicts survival after lung cancer resection, J. Clin. Oncol. 22(16) (2004) 3255-3260. 

Shirota Y, StoeWmacher J, Brabender J et al. ERCCl and thymidylate synthase mRNA levels predict survival for colorectal cancer patients receiving combination oxaliplatin and fluorouracil chemotherapy. JC/m Onco/2001 19 4298 304. 

Ramirez JL, Rosell R, Taron M et al. The Spanish Lung Cancer Group.. 14-3-3sigma methylation in pretreatment serum circulating DNA of cisplatin-plus-gemcitabine-treated advanced non-small-cell lung cancer patients predicts survival. J Clin Owco/2005 23 9105-9112. 

Naderi A, Teschendorff AE, Barbosa-Morais NL et al. A gene-expression signature to predict survival in breast cancer across independent data sets. Oncogene 2007 26 1507-1516. 

Rosenwald A, Wright G, Chan WC et al Lymphoma/ eukemia molecular profiling project. The use of molecular profiling to predict survival after chemotherapy for diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma. N Engl JMed 2002 346 1937-1947. 

Schumacher P., Dineen S., Barnett C., Fleming J., Anthony T. (2007) The metastatic lymph node ratio predicts survival in colon cancer. Am J Surg 194, 827-832. 

Zoccali C, Mallamaci F, Parlongo S, Cutrupi S, Benedetto AB, Tripepi G, Bonanno G, Rapisarda F, Fatuzzo P, seminara G, Cateliotti A, Stancanelli B, Malatino S. Plasma norepinephrine predicts survival and incident cardiovascular events in patients with end-stage renal disease. Circulation. 2002 105 1354-1359. 

Beer DG, Kardia SL, Huang CC, Giordano TJ, Levin AM, Misek DE, Lin L, Chen G, Gharib TG, Thomas DG, Lizyness ML, Kuick R, Hayasaka S, Taylor JM, Iannettoni MD, Orringer MB, Hanash S, Gene-expression profiles predict survival of patients with lung adenocarcinoma, Nat. Med., 8 816-824, 2002. 

The first was derived from a cohort of 451 patients consecutively admitted to a hospital in North Carolina, USA, between 1977 and 1983 and predicts survival at one and five years (Howard et al. 1987). Using regression modeling to identify independent risk factors, age over 60 years, carotid territory TIA, cigarette smoking, previous contralateral stroke, ischemic heart disease and diabetes mellitus were found to predict an increased risk of death. On internal validation, patients under 60 years of age with none of the above risk factors had a five-year survival of over 95%, while patients over 60 years of age with all of these risk factors had a five-year survival of less than 25%. 

Patch, D., Armonis, A., Sabin, C., Christopoulou, K., Greenslade, L., McCormick, A., Dick, R. Single portal pressure measurement predicts survival in cirrhotic patients with recent bleeding. Gut 1999 44 264-269... 

Fernandez-Esparrach, G., Sanchez-Fueyo, A., Gines, P., Uriz, J., Quinto, L., Ventura, R-J., Cardenas, A., Guevara, M., Sort, R, Jimenez, W., Bataiier, R., Arroyo, V., Rodes, J. A prognostic model for predicting survival in cirrhosis with ascites. X Hepatol. 2001 34 46-52... 

Salerno, F., rroni, G., Moser, R, Sangiovanni, A., Almasio, R, Budil-Ion, G., Capuano, G., Muraca, M., Marchesini, G., Bern di, M., Mar-enco, G., Molino, G., Ross o, L., Solinas, A., Asdone, A. Prognostic value of the galactose test in predicting survival of patients with cirrhosis evaluated for Hver transplantation. J. Hepatol. 1996 25 474-480... 

Kamath P, Wiesner R, Malinchoc M, Kremers W, Therneau T, Kosberg C, et al. A model to predict survival in patients with end-stage liver disease. Hepatology 2001 33 464-70. 

Politou M, Meletis J, et al. Soluble receptor activator of nuclear factor kB ligand-osteoprotegerin ratio predicts survival in multiple myeloma proposal for a novel prognostic index. Blood 2003 102 1064-9. 

Signorini DF, Andrews PJ, Jones PA, et al. Predicting survival using simple clinical variables A case smdy in traumatic brain injury. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry 1999 66 20-25. 

Figure 8. Relationship between observed and predicted survival for (A) a copepod that lacks recovery, Boeckella gracilipes. Predicted survival agrees with observation in both static (dashed line, open circles) and rotated (solid line, filled circles) incubations. (B) Another zooplankton species that has photorepair, Ceriodaphnia dubia. Observed survival in rotating (solid line, filled circles) is higher than predicted based on survival under static conditions (dashed line, open circles). [From Zagarese et al. [90], reprinted with permission of Oxford University Press.]...

De Roock W, Piessevaux H, De Schutter J, et al. KRAS wild-type state predicts survival and is associated to early radiological response in metastatic colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab. Ann Oncol. 2008 19 508-515. 

Kim MS, Song WS, Cho WH, et al. Ezrin expression predicts survival in stage IIB osteosarcomas. Clin Orthop Relat Res. 2007 459 229-236. 

Cheang MC, Treaba DO, Speers CH, et al. Immunohistochemi-cal detection using the new rabbit monoclonal antibody SPl of estrogen receptor in breast cancer is superior to mouse monoclonal antibody 1D5 in predicting survival. J Clin Oncol. 2006 24 5637-5644. 

FIGURE 20.14 Probabilities of survival of patients with grade II astrocytomas in which mean MIBl labeling indices were <2% and >2%. Bars represent data from McKeever PE, Strawderman MY, YaminiB, et at. MIB- 7 proliferation index predicts survival among patients with grade II astrocytoma, j Neuropathoi Exp Neurol. 1998 57 931-936. 

Hockel, M., Schlenger, K., Vorndran, B., Baus-samann, E., Mitze, M., Knapstein, P.G., and Vaupel, P. Intratumoral p02 predicts survival in advanced cancer of the uterine cervix. Radiother. Oncol., 26 45-50, 1993. 

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