Estimates of impacts

Risk Estimation. In this step, the effect per unit of exposure is estimated. For genetic effects, there are two components estimation of damage to germ cells, and estimation of impact on future generations. To estimate genetic risk, results from germinal tests in the mouse can be used to extrapolate to possible human effects. 

Estimate of Impacts of Radiation-hazardous Operations Performed by Nuclear Shipbuilding Enterprises on the Environment and Population, Methodic Guides, Medhioextrem Publishers, Moscow (in Russian). 

The aim of increasing realism in our risk assessment model is naturally to increase the accuracy and predictability of our estimate of impact or risk. While this is a very... 

Estimation of impact of factors of natural conditions on the activity and scales of karstification can be obtained by the way of its comparison with karst forms and their morphometric parameters. 

Table III/1.6-1 Qualitative Estimate of Impact on People, Environment, and Asset...

The March 23, 2005 explosion at the BP Amoco Texas City, Texas refinery, which was reported to represent about 3 percent of U.S. refining capacity provides a basis for this estimate of impact. Washington Post. 2005. Blast cuts refining capacity, March 25, p. EOl. 

The prediction of quasi-static impact force based on the static indentation data yielded at least a first-order approximation, as verified for the oxide/oxide composite. More rigorous estimation of impact force awaits experimental data and advanced measurement techniques as well. 

Gundgaard, J., Nielsen, J.N., Olsen, J. et al (2003) Increased intake of fruit and vegetables estimation of impact in terms of Ufe expectancy and healthcare costs. Public Health Nutr., 6, 25-30. 

The type and number of wells required for development will influence the surface facilities design and have a significant impact on the cost of development. Typically the drilling expenditure for a project is between 20 and 40% of the total capex. A reasonable estimate of the number of wells required is therefore important. 

A computer program was written to perform all the calculation. It is found that the three-element viscoelastic model provides reasonable estimation of the behavior of the polyvinyl chloride material during the impact... 

In the laboratory or process research section a laboratory procedure for a fine chemical is worked out. The resulting process description provides the necessary data for the determination of preliminary product specifications, the manufacture of semicommercial quantities in the pilot plant, the assessment of the ecological impact, an estimation of the manufacturing cost in an industrial-scale plant, and the vaHdation of the process and determination of raw material specifications. 

The systematic study of piezochromism is a relatively new field. It is clear that, even within the restricted definition used here, many more systems win be found which exhibit piezochromic behavior. It is quite possible to find a variety of potential appUcations of this phenomenon. Many of them center around the estimation of the pressure or stress in some kind of restricted or localized geometry, eg, under a localized impact or shock in a crystal or polymer film, in such a film under tension or compression, or at the interface between bearings. More generally it conveys some basic information about inter- and intramolecular interactions that is useful in understanding processes at atmospheric pressure as well as under compression. 

The components of a risk analysis involve the estimation of the frequency of an event, an estimation of the consequences (the extent of the material or energy release and its impact on population, property, or environment), and the selection and generation of the estimate of risk itself. 

Probit models have been found generally useful to describe the effects of incident outcome cases on people or property for more complex risk analyses. At the other end of the sc e, the estimation of a distance within which the population would be exposed to a concentration of ERPG-2 or higher may be sufficient to describe the impact of a simple risk analysis. 

F or NjO, estimates of soil emissions are perhaps slightly more straightforward, simply because so much more information on soil NjO emissions is available. For agricultural soils, estimates as a percentage of fertilizer input have been published " and, for the remaining land use classes listed in Table 5, mean annual emissions from a series of long-term flux measurements are available. The total annual soil NjO emissions for the ElK (27 kt N) are very similar to the annual soil NO emissions. Soils, however, have by far a greater impact on the... 

Sometimes the expected consequences of an accident alone may provide you with sufficient information for decision-making purposes. Conventionally, the form of these estimates will be dictated by the purpose (concern) of the study (safety, economics, etc.). Absolute consequence estimates are best estimates of the impacts of an accident and, like frequency estimates, may have considerable uncertainty. Table 4 contains examples of typical consequence estimates obtained from QRA. These examples point to the difficulty in comparing various safety and economic results on a common basis—there is no common denominator. 

Consequence Phase 3 Develop Detailed Quantitative Estimate of the impacts of the Accident Scenarios. Sometimes an accident scenario is not understood enough to make risk-based decisions without having a more quantitative estimation of the effects. Quantitative consequence analysis will vary according to the hazards of interest (e.g., toxic, flammable, or reactive materials), specific accident scenarios (e.g., releases, runaway reactions, fires, or explosions), and consequence type of interest (e.g., onsite impacts, offsite impacts, environmental releases). The general technique is to model release rates/quantities, dispersion of released materials, fires, and explosions, and then estimate the effects of these events on employees, the public, the facility, neighboring facilities, and the environment. 

B. Estimates of Short-Term Impact during Remediation... 

The U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA90) (1) were a revision of the original U.S. Clean Air Act passed in 1963, amended in 1970, and amended again in 1977 (2). It is one of the most significant pieces of environmental legislation ever enacted. Estimates of the yearly economic impacts of CAAA90 range from U.S. 12 billion to U.S. 53 billion in 1995 and from U.S. 25 billion to U.S. 90 billion by 2005. 

The extent and severity of the damage attributable to acid depositions are difficult to estimate, since impacts vary according to soil type, plant species, atmospheric conditions, insect populations, and other factors that are not well understood. Nitrates in precipitation may actually increase forest growth in areas with nitrogen-deficient soils. 

Principal emphasis of the analysis is an estimation of ground level conditions within proximity of the plant and the intermediate surrounding community within a 5-mile radius of the plant, and potential community impact. 

The FRR required 8 calendar months to complete. It was performed by a team of three risk analysts who expended 2 staff-years of effort conducting the analysis. During the FRR, the mining lacility provided 15 people who collectively expended about 4 staff-months of effort providing the risk analysis with facility design information and estimating accident impacts. 

A typical CBA involves a description of the expected decrease in emissions and a model of the impact pathways, such as an estimation of the average damage per emission unit. It involves a valuation of damage units such as loss of 1 kg crop, one person admission to hospital due to respiratory infections, etc. As an example, a part of a result table from a study in determining external environmental costs fot the production of electricity from coaU is shown in Table 15.5. 

The maximum contribution of turbulent attrition rate varies in the range 30-40 per cent of total fine numbers with the assumption that impact attrition fragments are not generated by the rubber coated turbine (i.e. similar to the 25 per cent estimate of Evans etal., 1974). 

While none of these kinds of variances can be precisely estimated you should consider them (and others you identify) in terms of their potential impact, and build an appropriate contingency percentage into estimates of... 

The report presents the findings from the analysis of the RCP failures. Estimates of the annual frequency for the spectrum of leak rates induced by RCP seal failures and their impact on plant safety (contribution to coremelt frequency) are made. The safety impact of smaller RCP seal leaks was assessed qualitatively, whereas for leaks above the normal makeup capacity, formal PRA methodologies were applied. Also included are the life distribution of RCP seals and the conditional leak rate distributions, given a RCP seal failure the contribution of various root causes and estimates for the dependency factors and the failure intensity for the different combinations of pump designers and plant vendors. 

Combinations of weather conditions, wind speed and wind direction along witli boiling point, vapor density, diffusivity, and heat of vaporization of tlie chemical released vary the healtli impact of tlie released chemical on the nearby population. To model a runaway reaction, the release of 10,000 gallons was assumed to occur over a 15-minute period. Tlie concentration of the chemical released was estimated, using procedures described in Part III (Chapter 12) for each combination of weather condition, wind speed, and wind direction. The results, combined with population data for tlie area adjacent to tlie plant, led to probability estimates of the number of people affected. Table 21.5.3 sunimarizes tlie findings. 

In many cases estimating the impact of acid deposition on various ecosystems can be a difficult process because acid deposition is only one of many impacts that can effect a response. However, wet and di y acid deposition has been documented as a major factor in the following ecosystem responses. 

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