Supply-demand balance

WORLD TREND IN SULFUR SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE, 1973-1990 (In millions of long tons of sulfur equiv.)... 

In the synthetic processes, mixtures of products are often obtained. Variation in the supply/demand balance of the alkyl pyridine isomers has led to much research on processes which may alleviate such imbalances, including development of the catalytic hydrodealkylation of alkyl pyridines to pyridine as well as the alkylation of pyndine. 

Regional supply/demand balances of a product can also impact economics. If a regional market becomes a net importer, this can create a valuable pricing umbrella for domestic producers. Take the hypothetical but not unrealistic case that North America holds back from adding new ethylene capacity and yet demand grows, so that North America shifts from a net exporter of ethylene derivatives to net short, and imports from Asia or other... 

Crude oil prices have been pushed by healthy demand led by China, which has outstripped new supply. Political concerns about the stability of the Middle East have combined with this tight supply-demand balance to enable the OPEC cartel to keep control of world oil pricing at a higher level than forecasted as recently as 2002. While a full examination of crude market prospects is beyond the scope of this chapter, the long-term outlook is for OPEC to continue to hold crude oil prices above USD 30/bbl due to the revenue needs of major OPEC member countries. At the same time, the expectation is for oil prices to continue to exhibit considerable volatility around that price. 

On the sourcing side, the slow but steady reduction of fuel and basic raw materials will induce further cost pressure on production. These can only be tackled through flexible and optimized production systems based on concepts that take purchasing power, the supply-demand balance, and strategic orientation into account. 

Supply-demand balance. Japan is likely to need 250-1000 MtC02 imports to comply with its Kyoto obligations, some of which would be drawn from allowance trading Canada could also compete but with less certainty. Thus the Kyoto system has a supply of project-based credits already in the pipeline (officially or unofficially) that is likely to substantially exceed non-EU demand, plus a large buffer of surplus Kyoto allowances potentially available. For more detailed discussion and data see workshop report. This will inevitably tend to limit EU ETS prices during the Kyoto period. 

Some other analysts express the opposite concern, that prices might rise to levels deemed to pose an unacceptable risk to European industry, and that to prevent this risk the system should contain a price cap or safety valve (e.g. Bouttes et al., 2006). Our assessment of phase II, in terms of both supply-demand balance and the economics of competitiveness over the 5-year period, leads us to be sceptical that this is a realistic concern. It is, however, true that a planned response to any such eventuality would be better than a panic-based reaction such as occurred in the California NOx trading system. Should prices rise to levels that were judged to pose a credible threat to competitiveness of a particular sector, and State-aid rules prevented auction revenues being used to assist it (or the country concerned had not conducted any auctions), the most obvious first step would be to relax supplementarity constraints, and possibly expand the scope of emission credits that could qualify for compliance purposes. We do not consider issues of price ceilings or safety valves beyond this. 

As a large volume commodity chemical, AN prices fluctuate with changes in the supply/demand balance and with raw material costs. The list price has been 150 per ton since 1995 and is expected to stay at that level through 2004. Between 1995 and 2001 the average sales price has varied from a low of 128 per ton in 2000 to a high of 143 per ton in 2001240. 

Aniline Supply Demand Balance and Stable Price in China, China Chemical Reporter, 11... 

The effects of seasonal variation in insolation levels on seasonal H2 supply/demand balances are presented in Fig. 2. The seasonal H2 production profile is well suited to meet seasonal H2 demand. The positive 0.61 correlation between monthly H2 production levels by PV electrolysis plants and monthly H2 demand reduces the required capacity of underground storage facilities. 

The supply/demand balance is tightening for EDC/VCM due to capacity limitations caused by poor returns holding back investment. In addition to supplier consolidations, there have been customer based consolidations driving lower net prices. 

Projection of the United States gas supply-demand balance through 1990 is summarized in Table IV and Figure 8. The availability of gas from all sources is expected to fall increasingly behind demand. An an-... 

Table 3.19 World Methanol Supply/Demand Balance...

The global demand for methanol has increased about 8%/yr from 1991 to 1995. The global production capacity of methanol has expanded by about 5.1 million metric tons, or 23% in the same time period. Leading the growth is increased methanol demand for MTBE and formaldehyde production. The world methanol supply/demand balance is shown in Table 3.19. 

Butadiene. Butadiene pricing seems to have reflected increased supply from both ethylene by-product sources and old plants partially modified to increase yields. The favored route for new direct capacity is probably butane dehydrogenation but the growth of more U.S. ethylene capacity based on gas oil would substantially increase by-product supply. Since butadiene growth is slower than ethylene growth with a heavy shift toward refinery liquids, cracking for ethylene would tend to depress butadiene supply/demand balances and prices. 

Copeland, J. and Turley, D. (2008) National and regional supply/demand balance for agricultural straw in Great Britain, www.mifccco.uk (accessed November 2009). 

Supply-demand balance estimates suggest that fertilizer markets during the late 1990s will be dominated by "surpluses under most scenarios and therefore will continue to put downward pressures on prices. However, in... 

Fertilizer supply-demand balances are derived from projected demand and estimated supply potential. Because capacity projections are not available for 2004/ 05, supply-demand balances for 2004/05 are based on the projected demand for 2004/05 and the estimated supply potential for 2000. This is done for two reasons First, to estimate how much additional capacity will be needed between 2000 and 2005 to meet the projected demand and in what regions. Second, what are the chances that the required additional capacity will be brought on stream ... 

Table 4.9. World Fertilizer Supply-Demand Balances, 1994/95-2004/05...

---