Risk Identification and Evaluation

The basic methodology adopted for the formal risk evaluation in the petroleum and related industries, both for existing facilities and new projects, normally contain the following steps  

Definition of the Facility - A general description of the facility is identified. Input and outputs to the facility are noted, production, manning, basic process control system (BPCS), ESD, fire protection philosophy, assumptions, hazardous material compositions, etc. 

Identification of Hazards - A listing of the processes and storage of combustible materials and the process chemistry that can precipitate an incident. 

Development of Accidental Events Identified scenarios that can cause an accident to occur. 

Frequency Analysis - An examination of the probabilities or possibilities of and accident to occur. 

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As discussed in Chapter 4, some risk-based decision making can benefit by the development of tolerance criteria for the various types of risk to which building occupants may be exposed. When identified risks are higher than what can be deemed tolerable, they should be eliminated or reduced to control the company s risk exposure. The process of risk identification and evaluation, comparison to tolerance criteria, and elimination or reduction of intolerably high risk is known as risk management. Figure 6.1 illustrates this process. Application of these tolerance criteria helps protect building occupants and ensure that resources are appropriately applied. 

Wu Shao li. Risk identificate and evaluation method Design of the project [D]. Sichuan Southwest Jiao Tong University, 2007. 

Risk identification and evaluation is performed using Reliability and Safety analyses in a mutually supportive way. Reliability analysis are principally concerned with functional criticality and failure effects aspects, and are performed principally in support of assuring mission success. Safety Analysis concentrates on identifying and evaluating the hazardous consequences which can arise from the system s hazardous conditions or from system functional failures. 

In this study detailed fault trees with probability and failure rate calculations were generated for the events (1) Fatality due to Explosion, Fire, Toxic Release or Asphyxiation at the Process Development Unit (PDU) Coal Gasification Process and (2) Loss of Availability of the PDU. The fault trees for the PDU were synthesized by Design Sciences, Inc., and then subjected to multiple reviews by Combustion Engineering. The steps involved in hazard identification and evaluation, fault tree generation, probability assessment, and design alteration are presented in the main body of this report. The fault trees, cut sets, failure rate data and unavailability calculations are included as attachments to this report. Although both safety and reliability trees have been constructed for the PDU, the verification and analysis of these trees were not completed as a result of the curtailment of the demonstration plant project. Certain items not completed for the PDU risk and reliability assessment are listed. 

Logic Model Methods The following tools are most commonly used in quantitative risk analysis, but can also be useful qualitatively to understand the combinations of events which can cause an accident. The logic models can also be useful in understanding how protective systems impact various potential accident scenarios. These methods will be thoroughly discussed in the Risk Analysis subsection. Also, hazard identification and evaluation tools discussed in this section are valuable precursors to a quantitative risk analysis (QRA). Generally a QRA quantifies the risk of hazard scenarios which have been identified by using tools such as those discussed above. 

Identification and evaluation of risks to human health and the environment ... 

In previous chapters the focus has been on risk identification and the systematic methods used to characterise hazards. Our next task is to exanune the practicalities of evaluating risk - studying the properties of hazards and their causes to establish the degree of risk and therefore its acceptability. Doing so allows us to prioritise those hazards which require further risk nutigation. 

The third element of a safety case is the ESA. The ESA requires the identification and evaluation of hazards over the life of the project from the initial feasibility study through the concept design stage, to construction and commissioning, then to operation, decommissioning, and abandonment of the facility. The FSA is a demonstration that, so far as is reasonably practicable, the risks to personnel have been minimized. It should ... 

Henschel s (2006) study shows that SMEs have a great interest in the BSC, in contrast to other management concepts proposed by business administration literature. With increasing size, enterprises significantly tend to use the BSC or at least have a plan to use it. It is emphasized, however, that only a few enterprises currently use, or even plan to use, the BSC forriskman-agement purposes, and it does not depend on enterprise size. In connection with business planning, the BSC could become an instrument for risk identification and risk evaluation that is suitable for SMEs. 

Soszynska, J., Kolowrocki, K., Kaminski, R, Jurdzihski, M., Guze, S. Milczek, B., Golik, P. 2009. Data Mining for Identification and Prediction of Safety and Reliability Characteristics of Complex Industrial Systems and Processes. WP6 - Task 6.2. Preliminary safety and risk analysis and evaluation of a Stena Baltica ferry in variable operation conditions. Sub-Task 6.2.5 - 16.03.2009. Poland-Singapore Joint Research Project, 2007-2010. 

ABSTRACT The article deals with the landfills and risk identification within waste disposal in a selected region of the Czech Republic. As a case study the systematic risk identification, its evaluation and selection of critical risks during waste disposal at the selected landfills was made. Within the risk management process the methodology of safety audit and checldist analysis were apphed. This methodology is based on semi-quantitative evaluation of received data which are the base for the risk comparison at the selected landfills. 

Kolowrocki, K., Soszynska, J., Baranowski, Z. Golik, P. 2008. Preliminary modeling, statistical identification and evaluation of reliability, risk, availability and safety of port, shipyard and ship technical systems in constant and variable operation conditions. WP4 - Task 4.2. Preliminary reliability, risk and availability analysis and evaluation of a port oil transportation system in constant and variable operation conditions. WP4- Sub-Task 4.2.1 -English - 30.11.2008. Poland-Singapore Joint Project. MSHE Decision No. 63/N-Singapore/2007/0. 

FIGURE 2.1 The key to awareness and preparedness is the identification and evaluation of risks, the probability of an incident, and the potential consequences. 

Risk assessment consists of the identification of hazards (Risk identification), followed by the analysis (Risk analysis) and evaluation (Risk evaluation) of risks associated with the occurrence of those hazards. As a simple illustration the extemporaneous preparation process of capsules according to a standard formulation is taken as to illustrate the principles involved. 

This analysis involves the identification and evaluation of risks by type and impact (i.e. maximum potential loss) on the company. A further analysis - Risk Ranking - may then be undertaken. 

All technological change will have an impact on the risk levels in the system. Some risks will be reduced, even eliminated, while new risks are created. Proper identification and evaluation are essential elements of change management. 

Mature risk management should also take the aspects of supply chains responsibility into account in social and environmental terms. At the same time, this type of management means the conscious identification and evaluation of risk, noticing the dependencies between risks and potential scenarios, concentration on transparent communication on risk in the whole company and in the supply chain (Deloitte 2011, p. 10). 

Threat and vulnerability Identification and evaluation of vulnerability for risk assessment of assets within conduits that fail to meet business requirements necessary documentation. Suggestion of suitable countermeasure for vulnerabilities in the zone... 

This topic has been discussed elsewhere in this book. The concept of risk assessment within a risk management framework is the combination of risk identification and risk evaluation mentioned above. 

As part of Process Safety Management (PSM) requirements by both OSHA and the EPA, both risk analysis and emergency response management require the determination (i.e., identification and evaluation) of incident scenarios that are likely to develop at an installation. Risk analyses techniques such as PITA, What-If, HAZOP, etc., will systematically review a process to determine possible deviations from the intended processes that may result in events such as fire and explosions. Additionally, emergency response preparedness plans usually develop creditable scenarios that may develop and the generic responses that are required. These PSM techniques... 

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