Risk comparisons

General societal risk data. It is important to consider the context of societal risk data. Some particularly important factors include whether or not the risk is voluntary, and whether persons exposed to the risk derive any benefit from the activity that generates the risk. Covello, Sandman, and Slovic, Slovic, and Wilson and CroLich provide examples of general societal risk data and discuss risk comparison and perception. 

V. T. Covello, P. M. Sandman, and P. Slovic, Risk Communication, Risk Statistics, and Risk Comparisons A Manual for Plant Managers, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Washington, DC, 1988. 

The primary motivation of PSAs is to assess the risk of the plant to the public. The immediate purpose of the RSS was to support the Price-Anderson hearings on liability insurance (i.e., assess the financial exposure of a nuclear power reactor operator) a purpose which, even today, is beyond PSA technology. However, PSA is sufficiently precise to provide relative risk comparisons of reactor designs and sites. These uses of PSA were presented at the Indian Point hearings, and in defense of Shoreham. The PSAs for the high-population-zone plants (Limerick, Zion, and Indian Point) were prepared to show that specific features of these plants compensate for the higher population density relative to plants studied in the RSS. 

Risk characterization is the last step in the risk assessment procedure. It is the quantitative or semi-quantitative estimation, including uncertainties, of frequency and severity of known or potential adverse health effects in a given population based on the previous steps. Risk characterization is the step that integrates information on hazard and exposure to estimate the magnitude of a risk. Comparison of the numerical output of hazard characterization with the estimated intake will give an indication of whether the estimated intake is a health concern. ... 

Phase 3a Confirmation of efficacy and safety (benefit/risk) Comparison with standard therapy and/or placebo Long-term safety Patients with the targeted disease, including (as much as possible) those with complications and/or concomitant conditions... 

Tb a considerable extent, these risk estimates and risk comparisons are merely exposure comparisons. Their interpretation is aided by comparing them with natural background radiation exposure and its variations or comparison to the other risks of a particular activity or to the risks associated with safe industry . 

Nuclear scientists have tried very hard to get these points to the public by submitting articles for publication in magazines. I managed to get articles in lower-tier magazines like Family-Health, Commentary, National Review, Catholic Digest, Reason, Consumer Reports, American Legion Magazine, but all my submissions to top-tier publications were rejected. To this day, none of these risk comparisons has been presented to the vast majority of the public, and the responsibility for this educational failure lies with the media. 

The discussion and development of the framework for risk comparisons must involve community stakeholders. The Pueblo city and county government and many members of the community are anxious for demilitarization activities to be completed as soon as possible in a way that ensures the safety of all concerned. Although some redevelopment on the PCD site has already begun, full commercial development of the site cannot begin until demilitarization of the PCD stockpile is completed. 

Johnson, B.B. 2002b. Stability and inoculation of risk comparisons effects under conflict Replicating and extending the Asbestos Jury study by Slovic et al. Risk Anal. 22(4) 789-800. 

Johnson, B.B. 2003b. Are some risk comparisons more effective under conflict A replication and extension of Roth et al. Risk Anal. 23(4) 767-780. 

Johnson, B.B. 2004b. Risk comparisons, conflict, and risk acceptability claims. Risk Anal. 24(1) 131-145. 

Johnson, B.B., and C. Chess. 2003. How reassuring are risk comparisons to pollution standards and emission limits Risk Anal. 23(5) 999-1007. 

Roth, E., M.G. Morgan, B. Fischhoff, L. Lave, and A. Bostrom. 1990. What do we know about making risk comparisons Risk Anal. 10(3) 375-387. 

Covello VT, Sandman PM, Slovic P (1988) Risk communication, risk statistics and risk comparisons A manual for plant managers. Washington, DC, Chemical Manufacturers Association. 

Curtis Travis of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and several associates (including Richard Wilson and Edmund Crouch, who will be mentioned in a few pages in connection with our discussion of risk comparisons) reviewed 132 regulatory decisions on carcinogens. These authors generalize as follows ... 

Mertz, C. K., Slovic, P., and Purchase, I. F. (1998). Judgments of chemical risks Comparisons among senior managers, toxicologists, and the public. Risk Anal 18, 391—404. 

Risk Communication, Risk Statistics, and Risk Comparisons A Manual for Plant Managers... 

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