Quantitative risk assessment chemical industry

Arendt, J. S., Lorenzo, A. F., and Lorenzo, D. K, Evaluating Process Safety in the Chemical Industry, A Manager s Guide to Quantitative Risk Assessment, Chemical Manufacturers Association, DC, 1989. 

General References Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis, CCPS-AIChE, New York, 1989. Arendt, Management of Quantitative Risk Assessment in the Chemical Process Industry, Plant Operations Progress, vol. 9, no. 4, AIChE, New York, October 1990. CMA, A Manager s Guide to Quantitative Risk Assessment, Chemical Manufacturers Association, December 1989. EFCE, Risk Analysis in the Process Industries, European Federation of Chemical Engineering, Publication Series no. 45, 1985. Lees,... 

The other main application area for predictive error analysis is in chemical process quantitative risk assessment (CPQRA) as a means of identifying human errors with significant risk consequences. In most cases, the generation of error modes in CPQRA is a somewhat unsystematic process, since it only considers errors that involve the failure to perform some pre-specified function, usually in an emergency (e.g., responding to an alarm within a time interval). The fact that errors of commission can arise as a result of diagnostic failures, or that poor interface design or procedures can also induce errors is rarely considered as part of CPQRA. However, this may be due to the fact that HEA techniques are not widely known in the chemical industry. The application of error analysis in CPQRA will be discussed further in Chapter 5. 

There is considerable interest in developing a database on human error probabilities for use in chemical process quantitative risk assessment (CPQRA). Nevertheless, there have been very few attempts to develop such a database for the CPI compared, for example, with the nuclear industry. Some of the reasons for this are obvious. The nuclear industry is much more highly integrated than the CPI, with a much greater similarity of plant equipment... 

D. Hendershot, "A Simple Example Problem Illustrating tlie Methodology of Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Assessment," paper presented at AICliE Mid-Atlantic Region "Day in Industry" for Chemical Engineering Faculty, Apr. 15, 1988. 

While the basic principle of inherently safer design is generally accepted, it is not always easy to put it into practice. Inherently safer design has been advocated since the explosion at Flixborough in 1974. Progress has been real but nevertheless the concept has not been adopted nearly as rapidly as quantitative risk assessment, introduced into the chemical industry only a few years earlier (Kletz, 1996). 

Barry, T.F. 1995. An Introduction to Quantitative Risk Assessment in Chemical Process Industries. Tbe SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering. 3rd Edition. National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA. 

The chemical industry has historically been the top TRl emitter, but by figuring in toxicity and exposure, the baton has been passed to a new leader—the primary metals industrial sector. The model does not provide chemical-specific quantitative risk assessments. Instead, EPA developed toxicity weights for each chemical. Those are combined with exposure, fate, and transport information to generate an indicator value for the health impact of emissions from a particular factory (Johnson, 1999). 

Chapter 3 Views on Key Issues Facing the Chemical Industry This chapter looks at the public s perception of the chemical industry. The numbers of chemicals produced and the range of products that contain the chemicals have raised serious concerns about the impacts of chemicals on human health and ecosystems, which often boil down to the public s mistrust of the industry as a whole. This chapter highlights key issues, challenges and opportunities for the chemical industry, including the complex process of quantitative risk assessment... 

Quantitative Risk Assessment in the Chemical Process and Related Industries... 

Risk assessments were first developed by the conunercial nuclear power industry, but they are now being used extensively in the chemical process industry. The advantage of quantitative risk assessment is that it not only identifies hazards, it also gives you a way to decide how to manage those hazards. This becomes particularly important if a plant wants to better understand how a chlorine spill at a wastewater treatment plant would affect surrounding neighborhoods. The tool allows you to add on other models such as toxic cloud dispersion models. 

The Chemical Process Industry (CPI) uses various quantitative and qualitative techniques to assess the reliability and risk of process equipment, process systems, and chemical manufacturing operations. These techniques identify the interactions of equipment, systems, and persons that have potentially undesirable consequences. In the case of reliability analyses, the undesirable consequences (e.g., plant shutdown, excessive downtime, or production of off-specification product) are those incidents which reduce system profitability through loss of production and increased maintenance costs. In the case of risk analyses, the primary concerns are human injuries, environmental impacts, and system damage caused by occurrence of fires, explosions, toxic material releases, and related hazards. Quantification of risk in terms of the severity of the consequences and the likelihood of occurrence provides the manager of the system with an important decisionmaking tool. By using the results of a quantitative risk analysis, we are better able to answer such questions as, Which of several candidate systems poses the least risk Are risk reduction modifications necessary and What modifications would be most effective in reducing risk ... 

CEFIC Views on the Quantitative Assessment of Risks from Installations in the Chemical Industry, European Council of Chemical Manufacturers Federations, Brussels, Belgium, April 1986. 

The deviation scenarios found in the previous step of the risk analysis must be assessed in terms of risk, which consists of assigning a level of severity and probability of occurrence to each scenario. This assessment is qualitative or semi-quantitative, but rarely quantitative, since a quantitative assessment requires a statistical database on failure frequency, which is difficult to obtain for the fine chemicals industry with such a huge diversity of processes. The severity is clearly linked to the consequences of the scenario or to the extent of possible damage. It may be assessed using different points of view, such as the impact on humans, the environment, property, the business continuity, or the company s reputation. Table 1.4 gives an example of such a set of criteria. In order to allow for a correct assessment, it is essential to describe the scenarios with all their consequences. This is often a demanding task for the team, which must interpret the available data in order to work out the consequences of a scenario, together with its chain of events. 

Clerinx, J. and Jourdan, L., Quantitative assessment of risks from installation in the chemical industry. World Conference on Chemical Accidents, Rome,1987, pp. 103... 

CPQRA A chemical process quantitative risk analysis is the process of hazard identification followed by numerical evaluation of incident consequences and frequencies, and their combination into an overall measure of risk when apphed to the chemical process industry. It is particularly applicable to episodic events. It differs from, but is related to, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), a quantitative tool used in the nuclear industry. 

As a practical development and promotion of the computatiorral toxicity prediction for the risk assessment of chemicals in industry, the Eitropean Corrrmimity has adopted a special law— Registratiorr, Evaliratiorr, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH). REACH provides the basis for a regular use of quantitative/ qiralitative analysis of stractrrre—activity (Qrtantitative Stractme-Activity Relatiortships—(Q)SAR analysis) in the Emopean Commimity. The aim of REACH is to improve the protection of hitmans and the environment through the better and earlier identification of the toxic properties of compounds [5]. The effect of 60,000 compounds on humans and the environment, which are produced in the EU in amoimts of more than 1 ton per year, will be evaluated by REACH. Examples of QSAR practice in REACH are given in the following review [6, 7]. 

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