Prediction pricing

In view of the above, various sources predict price increases for natural gas liquids for petrochemical use (5, 6). Let us look at the predicted magnitudes of these possible price increases and their effect on ethylene production costs. 

It is not unusual, therefore, to find chemical companies making decisions on whether to continue ownership or investment in cyclical sectors on the basis of only a few years historic figures. Yet such short term data inevitably reflect performance over only a part of one cycle, and are potentially highly misleading about the average returns achieved historically (and likely to be achieved in the future) by a particular business unit If, however, companies were to attempt to predict price - with its implications for margins and returns - over the 15-20 year period... 

SMR results are particularly sensitive to fuel price assumptions (Table 6.5). Natural gas prices historically have exhibited fairly strong price volatility. For example, while the EIA forecasts natural gas prices for utilities will be about 4.27 /MBtu in 2010 and are expected to reach 5.20 /MBtu in 2020, natural gas prices averaged much higher in 2004, at 6.11 /MBtu (EIA 2006). For the default SMR efficiency of 70%, each 1 rise in natural gas prices increases produced hydrogen costs by 0.16 /kg. A doubling of predicted prices in 2010 would increase hydrogen production costs by 0.97 /kg. 

The increased economic uncertainty has altered the way financial markets function. Companies have discovered that their value is subject to various financial price risks in addition to the risk inherent in their core business. New risk management instruments and hybrid securities have proliferated in the market, enabling companies to manage financial risk actively rather than try to predict price movements. 

The inflation rate has been defined which allows one to predict price changes. However, economic analysis requires the use of an interest rate for discounting or compounding procedures in order to reduce a set of cash flows to a common measure for analysis, such as net present value. Because cash flows may or may not be inflated, two interest rates must be defined for use in analysis. 

Price deviation of fuel or primary energy resources from predicted price projected in basic scenario - cr. In scenario of this disturbance there is a committed period of predictable price increase. The maximum price deviation has been chosen 50%. 

Consequences of disturbances considered in the methodology are technical, economical and socio-pohtical ones. Severity of consequences depends on parameters of disturbance. Technical consequences come first so they depend on parameters of disturbance. Technical consequences cause economical ones. One of parameters of disturbance is price deviation of fuel or primary energy resources from predicted price projected in basic scenario and this parameter directly influences economical consequences. Duration has impact too. Thus, economical consequences... 

Heisey, E.L., 1990. Perceived quality and predicted price use of the minimum information environment in evaluating apparel. Clothing Text. Res. J. 8 (4), 22—28. 

Hamprecht, H. (2011) Daimler Predicts Price Declines for EVs, Fuel Cells, http //www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ article AID=/20110122/ANE/l 10129948/ 1193 (last accessed 3 February 2011). 

Project screening means checking that the predicted economic performance of a project passes a prescribed threshold or hurdle . Investors commonly apply a screening value to the project, which is a chosen IRR at a chosen oil price (for example, 20% IRR at 20/bbl). Provided the project IRR exceeds the hurdle rate the project is considered further, otherwise it is rejected in current form. 

The market penetration of synthetic fuels from biomass and wastes in the United States depends on several basic factors, eg, demand, price, performance, competitive feedstock uses, government incentives, whether estabUshed fuel is replaced by a chemically identical fuel or a different product, and cost and availabiUty of other fuels such as oil and natural gas. Detailed analyses have been performed to predict the market penetration of biomass energy well into the twenty-first century. A range of from 3 to about 21 EJ seems to characterize the results of most of these studies. 

An interminable number of studies have been performed to predict future energy consumption patterns, resources, imports, and prices. If the predictions of higher oil prices had been accurate in the late 1970s, or if the oil price had stabilized at its peak in 1981, the biomass energy iadustry would have exhibited much greater growth than it has (128). 

The worldwide consumption of 4-dodecylphenol is difficult to estimate since the majority of 4-dodecylphenol produced is captively used. Prices appear in Table 3. Litde growth in the consumption of 4-dodecylphenol is predicted because of the mature nature of the markets of its derivatives. 

Nuclear Reactors. Nuclear power faciUties account for about 20% of the power generated in the United States. Although no new plants are plaimed in the United States, many other countries, particularly those that would otherwise rely heavily on imported fuel, continue to increase their nuclear plant generation capacity. Many industry observers predict that nuclear power may become more attractive in future years as the price of fossil fuels continues to rise and environmental regulations become more stringent. In addition, advanced passive-safety reactor designs may help allay concerns over potential safety issues. 

Alfrey and Price proposed a means of predicting monomer reactivity in copolymerization from two parameters, (a measure of resonance) and e (a measure of polar effects) (8). These parameters have been related to the reactivity ratios by equations 15—17. 

Sensitivity Analysis An economic study should pinpoint the areas most susceptible to change. It is easier to predict expenses than either sales or profits. Fairly accurate estimates of capital costs and processing costs can be made. However, for the most part, errors in these estimates have a correspondingly smaller effecl than changes in sales price, sales volume, and the costs of raw materials and distribution. 

Predictions from Limited Data Predictions of future sales price, sales volume, etc., are normally based on a very hmited amount of data about past events. Furthermore, it would not be convenient to use the entire population of past events even if it were available. A statistic is a measure, based on limited information from a sample, that allows the corresponding parameter of the population to be estimated. 

As an example of the use of the nomograph, the line is shown which would be drawn to determine the solubility of n-hexane in water at 25°C. The coordinates given in Table 1 for normal paraffins have been used X = 15.0, Y = 20.0. The predicted solubility is 2 x 10 mole fraction The experimental value is 1.98 x 10as given by McAuliffe and Price. ... 

In recent years general purpose polystyrene and high-impact polystyrenes have had to face intensive competition from other materials, particularly polypropylene, which has been available in recent years at what may best be described as an abnormally low price. Whilst polystyrene has lost some of it markets it has generally enjoyed increasing consumption and the more pessimistic predictions of a decline have as yet failed to materialise. Today about 75% of these materials are injection moulded whilst the rest is extruded and/or thermoformed. 

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