Fuel-cell vehicle market penetration

Baptista P,Tomas M and Silva C (2010), Plug-in hybrid fuel cell vehicles market penetration scenarios. Inti. Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 35,10024-10030. 

So the greatest challenges are in the mobile sector, but the pressure to act is much greater here as well, owing to oil scarcity, pollutants from vehicles, noise nuisance, etc. Compared with stationary applications, the alternative technologies in the mobile sector are also much poorer. This is why fuel-cell vehicles remain a possibility, despite the enormous sectoral changes that accompany this alternative. The question is when will they achieve market penetration One of the main obstacles that will have to be overcome is the attendant position of both the automobile industry and the infrastructure industry concerning the investment. Which one is prepared to... 

Is the chicken-and-egg problem solvable, or will we need this technology to achieve significant market penetration of fuel cell vehicles before we build the hydrogen infrastructure ... 

The committee s market trajectory for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles reflects what is possible and shows initial market penetration in 2015, growing to 12 percent of new light-duty... 

The committee s upper-bound market penetration case for fuel cell vehicles, premised on hybrid vehicle experience, assumes that fuel cell vehicles enter the U.S. light-duty vehicle market in 2015 in competition with conventional and hybrid electric vehicles, reaching 25 percent of light-duty... 

To achieve significant market penetration, fuel cell vehicles will have to meet or exceed the performance baseline established by today s spark-ignition engine vehicles. These performance criteria include improved gas mileage, rapid acceleration, and turn-key start-up. The goal of this work is to develop strategies that will result in demonstration of a fuel processor for fuel cell vehicles that starts rapidly. The Department of Energy has set a start-up time of 30 seconds (from 20°C to maximum power) for the year 2010. 

Successful application of fuel cell technologies in automobiles mil improve energy security and provide significant environmental benefits. A 10 percent market penetration could reduce U.S. oil imports by 130 million barrels per year. Fuel cell vehicles will reduce urban air pollution and mitigate climate change. They will be 70 percent to 90 percent cleaner than conventional gasoline-powered vehicles on a fuel cycle basis, and will produce 70 percent less carbon dioxide emissions."... 

Endo E (2007), Market penetration analysis of fuel cell vehicles in Japan by using the energy system model MARKAL. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 32,1347-1354. 

Keles D, Wietschel M, Mosta D and Rentza O (2008), Market penetration of fuel cell vehicles - Analysis based on agent behaviour. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 33,4444-4455. 

Park SY, Kim JW, Lee DH (2011) Development of a market penetration forecasting model for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects. Energy Policy 39 3307-3315... 

Survivability, durability, operation, and rapid startup under subfreezing temperatures are stiU current barriers that should be addressed before mass-market penetration of hydrogen-powered PEM fuel cell vehicles. When a PEM fuel cell is subjected to subfreezing temperatures, there is a significant decrease in the electrochemical surface area (ESCA) of the electrodes (normally attributed to ice formation and porosity changes in the CL), and this ultimately... 

Table 14.4 displays the initial market penetration of all hydrogen vehicles -passenger cars, light-duty vehicles and buses - for the Reference scenario relative to the estimated development of the total vehicle stock as well as the shares of the hydrogen vehicle drive trains, i.e., fuel cells and internal combustion engines. 

The HFP focuses on the acceleration and development for cost reduction necessary to competitively market fuel cells for transportation, stationary, and portable power applications. Their Hyways Project Roadmap aims for a mass market rollout by 2020 for European class vehicles with efficiencies of at least 40% on the New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) at a cost of 100 Euros kW and lifetimes of 5000 h for automobiles and 10,000 h for buses. The goals for stationary power systems mainly target residential power systems which the HFP hopes to see tangible market penetration by 2020. By 2009-2012, these systems are expected to maintain 34-40% electrical efficiency, a total fuel efficiency of 80%, >12,000 h of operation and cost less than 6000 Euro per system stack (Borup et al., 2007). 

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