Reserve estimates

Estimating total remaining reserves is not an easy task, and as one would expect, there are many estimates and considerable controversy about the amount of remaining resources. 

How long will remaining reserves of fossil fuels last For coal, the answer is measured in centuries, while for oil and natural gas the answer is measured in decades. How many decades is the subject of considerable debate, especially for oil. This debate is referred to as the peak oil argument. 

In January 2004 Royal Dutch/Shell, the world s third-largest publicly traded oil company, announced a recategorization of 3.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent, citing less certainty than is required by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to be considered proven reserves. One example of these recategorizations is an Australian project in which Shell classified a field as proven while other companies involved did not classify it as positively. 

Source Davis Polk Wardwell 2004 Fuerbringer 2004 Labaton and Gerth 2004 Royal Dutch/SheU 2004a,b Timmons 2004. 

As economist M. A. Adelman contends, Oil reserves are not a fixed stock to be allocated over time, but an inventory, constantly consumed 

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Having defined and gathered data adequate for an initial reserves estimation, the next step is to look at the various options to develop the field. The objective of the feasibility study is to document various technical options, of which at least one should be economically viable. The study will contain the subsurface development options, the process design, equipment sizes, the proposed locations (e.g. offshore platforms), and the crude evacuation and export system. The cases considered will be accompanied by a cost estimate and planning schedule. Such a document gives a complete overview of all the requirements, opportunities, risks and constraints. 

The area can be measured from a map. Figure 6.1 clarifies some of the reservoir definitions used in reserves estimation. 

Fuel Proven reserves Estimated undiscovered recoverable reserves Estimated identified and undiscovered resources... 

It is well known that reseive estimates made early in the development of a field are often wi ong and that there s a 50 percent change in estimated ultimate recovery in many fields during the first ten years. In addition, the average field lifetime has been a decade longer than initially expected in the North Sea. If you believe in reserve growth, you would conclude that there will not be a petroleum crisis anytime soon. If, on the other hand, you believe that reserves have been overstated and you make negative revisions to reserve estimates, there rvill be a crisis soon. Current known petroleum reserves (proved + P50 probable) in the world are 1.44 trillion barrels of oil, 5,845 trillion cubic feet of gas, and 80 billion barrels of natural... 

Dromgoole, P., and Speers, R. (1997). Geoscore A Method for Quantifying Uncertainty in Field Reserve Estimates. Petroleum Geoscience 3 - 2. 

A method of volumetric reserve estimation in which the estimate is expressed as a cumulative probability curve. 

David, Michel. "Geostatlstlcal Ore Reserve Estimation Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company Amsterdam, Oxford, New York, 1977 pp. 1-364. 

Asphaltenic and viscous heavy oils from bituminous deposits are a huge energy reserve to be exploited in next decades. More than 70 countries possess bituminous deposits. In Canada only, the oil reserve considered to be technically recoverable is estimated to be 280-300 Gb (billion of barrels), larger than the Saudi Arabia oil reserves estimated at 240 Gb (Government of Alberta, Canada, 2002). 

US stock exchanges based on the probabilistic approach, requiring the report of only proved reserves they, nonetheless, also allow scope for some discretion. In conclusion, it can be said that, so far, there are no international requirements or standards in place regarding reserve classification and reporting, and the methodologies used for reserve estimates seem to vary according to their purpose as a result, reserve data are often referred to as political data . The consequences are inconsistency and controversy about the future supply of oil and gas. 

Fuel store Approximate total fuel reserve Estimated period for which fuel store would provide energy ... 

The northern Canadian Cordillera is one of the most well-endowed (richest) tungsten districts in the world (e.g., Dick Hodgson 1982). The highest grade tungsten deposit in this district is the Cantung mine, a world-class tungsten skarn with recent reserve estimates of 2.9 Mt at 1.21%W03 indicated and 0.73 Mt at 0.74%W03 inferred (Clow et al. 2006), and over 4.6 Mt at 1.6%W03 removed prior to temporary mine shut-down in 2003 (Rasmussen 2004). 

Ore deposit simulation and reserve estimation in Masjeddaghi epithermal gold mineralization - Azerbayjan - Iran... 

David, M. "Developments in Geomathematics 2, Geostatistical Ore Reserve Estimation" Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company New York, 1977. 

Gas hydrates were first reported at the beginning of the 19th century, and until the 1930s they remained a scientific curiosity. At that time it was realized that hydrates were more likely to be the causative agent in blocking pipelines than ice. Today, gas hydrate control continues to be a problem in the oil and gas industry. In the 1960 s it was realized that natural gas hydrates are present in the geo-sphere with worldwide reserves estimated at 10,000 to 40,000 trillion cubic meters (TCM). Considerable efforts are underway to refine global estimates and to develop technology and exploit this resource. On the other hand these hydrates may... 

David, M. Geological Ore Reserve Estimation , El vier, Amsterdam 1977... 

Within 3000 ft radius of Temporary Store Houses Nos 8 9, everything on Lake Denmark Depot was wrecked, burned or otherwise destroyed, with a few exceptions. Beyond the 3000 ft radius, and as far as the Navy reservation (estimated under 5600 ft), all of the bldgs were damaged in more or less degree by die expln, but as there were no expls or powder stored in die bldgs in this area, no fires occurred... 

Data compiled for 1992 placed the wodd s estimated proved natural gas reserves at approximately 1.24 x 1014 m3 (4.38 x 1015 ft3) (4). Data for the Confederation of Independent States (CIS) are denoted as explored reserves and include proved, probable, and some possible gas. The data for Canada also include some probable reserves. The woddwide natural gas reserves have continued to increase as the demand for gas has increased and exploration efforts have expanded. In 1976, the wodd natural gas reserves were estimated to be 6.58 x 1013 m3. In 1987, the reserves were 1.06 x 1014 m3, and by 1992 the reserve estimates had grown to 1.24 x 1014 m3. The distribution of the reserves in 1992 by principal geographical areas is shown in Table 1. In 1992, the principal political/geographical entities of the United States, the Confederation of Independent States (CIS), and the Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) held 3.87, 39.97, and 39.7% of the wodd s natural gas reserves, respectively. 

By 1995, Australia will probably be one of the world s three largest aluminum producers. At present, it supplies onc-third of the world s bauxite. New smeller construction underway is expected to boost the world production by two million tons (1.8 million metric tons). New Zealand also has a good potential. Australia has coal reserves estimated at 1500 years. 

The work by Ginsburg and Soloviev (1995) has estimated worldwide hydrate reserves in amounts consistent with the most commonly cited Russian hydrate reserve estimations by Trofimuk et al. (1980) namely 5.7 x 1013 m3 of gas in continental hydrates and 3 x 1015 m3 of gas in hydrates in oceans. Note that, while both the estimated amounts are controversial, there are two orders of magnitude less hydrates on land than in the oceans. 

David, M. Geostatistical Ore Reserve Estimation, Elsevier, Amsterdam, Oxford, New York, 1977 Joumel, A.G., Huigbregts, Ch. Mining Geostatistics, Academic Press, London, New York, San Francisco, 1978... 

Figure 2 deals with potential gasification feedstocks in the contiguous 48 United States. As shown, coal, at about 5000 quads, is by far the largest recoverable fossil fuel. Peat is next at about 750 quads, and then oil shale at about 500 quads. And finally, we have also shown crude oil at about 170 quads to add perspective to the reserve estimates. These estimates, including crude oil, were published by the Institute of Gas Technology (IGT) in late 1977. 

At any given time proven U.S. natural gas reserves seem to remain at approximately 10 years of indigenous supply at the then current consumption rates. Proven reserves estimates are subject to constant change, either up or down, depending on reservoir operating experience, field extensions resulting from additional drilling, and revised estimates. 

Tissue of source Approximate total fuel reserve Estimated fuel stoTvi period for which would provicit energy... 

What the future holds for oil supply and demand has been the subject of a number of recent books, with conflicting viewpoints expressed on such issues as the time-scale for reaching the Hubbard Peak in oil production, current oil reserve estimates, the ability of economic forces to drive exploration and expansion of oil reserves, and the role of more difficult to obtain and expensive sources of oil (such as tar sands) to satisfy demand. A related issue to natural oil supply is the dependence of many nations, including the U.S., on imported oil for the bulk of their energy requirements and the impact this has on their national security. Historically, in terms of national policies, energy security has typically translated into short-term military security. 

Discuss how long it would be possible to maintain a hydrogen-based energy system if all hydrogen had to be produced from natiual gas as the sole primary resource (e.g., use the natural gas reserve estimates given in section 5.3). 

Reserve estimates are not always reliable since they are often inflated however in the last 25 years oil reserves have been growing. At the end of 2004 the world had about 40 years of reserves at current production levels, but at the end of 1984 this number was only 29 years. Technology has... 

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