Potential loss of life

Fatality Accident Rates (FAR) or Potential Loss of Life (PLL) - A mathematical estimation of the level of fatalities that may occur at a location or facility due to the nature of work being performed and protection measures provided, may be calculated at an annual rate or for the life of the project. 

In the selection of the right valve, it is always best to work in conjunction with one of the manufacturer s personnel or a consultant who is familiar with the different types of valve available on the market and who can advise the best solution for the application. Different types of valve are available for a reason. These reasons might sometimes be exclusively based on low cost, but also many times solve a particular application problem. Savings at the expense of safety is not a good idea and ultimately leads to increased LCC (life cycle cost of the valve), loss of valuable product, environmental pollution, damage to installations and, most importandy, potential loss of life. 

If it turns out that this is the only study, then John and his team must get advice from expert researchers in the field as to the next step. The company itself, as well as the team John is working with, must realize that the project has not received the attention it deserves and that there would be serious consequences. They cannot blame John for being a poor team player. To ignore such a potentially serious problem is to flirt with potential loss of life and bankrupting lawsuits if that one study proves to be accurate. 

The BN model is used to estimate the probability of personnel injury and the potential loss of life associated with one component (12 kV MV air insulated switch-disconnector) with specific characteristics age, operating enviromnent, maintenance practice, and encapsulation. 

Another way for estimation of potential loss of life is based on flooding characteristics (depth, velocity, diuation etc.), flooded area and the characteristics of the effected area (number of inhabitants, emergency... 

In this paper due to lack of information, the first approach is applied as a first estimate of potential loss of life. Based on the historical data on loss of life and total number of effected people due to storm induced flood of the coastal regions in the last century (ADRC 2006) the overall average mortality rate is determined approximately of 0.3%. For Nam Dinh coastal region there approximately 41 fatalities are estimated due to occurrence of the sea flood. 

In application of the second approach we consider four different scenarios of flooding events by means of different return periods. Each scenario associates with its certain flooding water level corresponding to the return period of the event. This leads to different in expected flood depths and, as consequence, the potential loss of life also differs by scenarios. Base on scenario analysis the FN-curve for Nam Dinh is found (see Fig. 3). With present situation of flood defences, the immdation probability is in range of 0.1 to 0.15 (6-10 years return periods) and the potential loss of life due to sea flood in Nam Dinh is expected at 41 fatalities. 

Potential loss of life due to flood is preliminary estimated in this study based on the actual information. The coastal flood defence in Nam Dinh should be upgraded to ensure that the inundation probability is less than 1/145 per year, in order to satisfy the individual and societal acceptable risk. 

The standard way of reporting the results from QRAs/PRAs is to present calculated frequencies (expected values) and probabilities, for example expressed by PEL (Potential Loss of Life) values, FAR (Fatal Accident Rates) values, IR (Individual Risk) values and F-N-curves (Frequency-Nmnber of fatalities). These risk indices form a risk picture, which constitutes the basis for the risk evaluation, to determine the... 

Apart from economic losses, floods can cause severe societal disruption and loss of life over 1400 people lost their lives in the New Orleans flood. The Dutch government has indicated that it will explicitly consider potential loss of life when deciding on the stringency of new flood safety standards. While loss of life is monetized and included in the financial balance of cost-benefit studies, it is not evaluated separately. In another policy domain, concerned with the safety of those living in the vicinity of major industrial hazards, loss of life is explicitly taken into account in the evaluation of risks to the public. The Dutch government therefore commissioned a study about the... 

Extreme river discharges can be forecasted days ahead. An extreme weather or water level forecast can lead to the decision to evacuate people from a flood prone region to reduce potential loss of life. Even if such forecasts were 100% reliable, it would still be difficult to forecast the occurrence of floods in regions protected by flood defenses, such as the Netherlands. This is because flood probabilities depend not only on the uncertainty related to hydraulic conditions, bnt also on the uncertainty related to the load bearing capacity of flood defenses ... 

In the Netherlands, the government is currently inves-tiging how potential loss of life due to flooding can be taken into account in a revised, risk-based flood defence policy, see also The potential use of individual and societal risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy (part 1) basic principles (Jongejan et al., 2009) for further background. 

Potential loss of life or vehicle due to failure of a safety or hazard monitoring system to detect, combat, or operate when required Loss of mission for Ground Support Equipment (GSE), loss of vehicle system... 

IS Potential loss of life or vehicle due to failure of a safety or hazard... 

In a nonregulated development scenario that was common in earlier years and still exists in some areas, residential and commercial buildings were constructed in the floodway zone, which lead to higher flood levels, structural damage, and potential loss of life. Low bridges that cross the stream in this zone could partially block the flow and thereby increase flood levels. 

Many companies use a value of 0.001—1 fatality every 1000 years. This is known as the IRPA, or Individual Risk per Annum. A more complex term is PLL, or Potential Loss of Life. It combines IRPA with the number of people present to come up with a forecast as to how often a fatality would occur at that facility. 

Usually the process industry level of risk for a particular facility is based on one of two parameters. The average risk to the individual i.e., Fatality Accident Rate (FAR) or Potential Loss of Life (PLL) or the risk of a catastrophic event at the facihty, a Quantified Risk Analysis (QRj ). The risk criteria can be expressed in two manners. Risk per year (annual) or facihty risk (lifetime). For purposes of consistency and familiarity, all quantifiable risks are normally specified as aimually. Where value analysis is appHed for cost comparisons of protection options, a lifetime risk figure is normally used to calculate the cost-benefit value. 

Eor the case of security, the request should not only cover scenarios, probabilities and expected consequences given an attack or quantities like Individual Risk (IR), Fatal Accident Rate (FAR), Potential Loss of Life (PLL), f-n curves etc., but also, and equally importantly, that the background knowledge underpinning these numbers and potential black swans is assessed in the same way as for financial risk. Take for example the assumption that the military will prevent terror—what if it fails What could be the consequences An assessment of the assumption deviation risk needs to be requested. 

Quantification of RCT - The quantification of the RCT is accomplished by using available historical data finm the incident database and where such data is absent, expert judgement is used to complement the quantification. The level of potential consequences of a SEE may be quantified in economic terms with regard to loss of lives/caigo/property and the degradation of the environment caused by the occurrence of the SFE. Rnally, the calculation of FN (i.e. frequency (F) - fatality (N)) curves and Potential Loss of Life (PLL) through the RCT is carried out. 

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