Forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluations show the world trend of bringing fast reactor economical characteristics nearer to those of thermal reactors when shifting to the reactor series construction and optimization of FR technical approaches. 

Consider a buyer at Bloomingdale s who is responsible for purchasing dinnerware with Christmas patterns. The dinnerware sells only during the Christmas season, and the buyer places an order for delivery in early November. Each dinnerware set costs c = 100 and sells for a retail price of p = 250. Any sets unsold by Christmas are heavily discounted in the post-Christmas sales and are sold for a salvage value of i = 80. The buyer has estimated that demand is normally distributed, with a mean of p = 350. Historically, forecast errors have had a standard deviation of a- = 150. The buyer has decided to conduct additional market research to get a better forecast. Evaluate the impact of improved forecast accuracy on profitability and inventories as the buyer reduces o- from 150 to 0 in increments of 30. 

Nesvijski, E.G., Nogin, S.I. Acoustic Emission Technics for Nondestructive Evaluation of Stress of Concrete and Reinforced Concrete Structures and Materials. Third Conference on Nondestructive Evaluation of Civil Structures and Materials, Boulder, CO, 1996. Nesvijski, E. G. Failure Forecast and the Acoustic Emission Silence Effect in Concrete. ASNT s Spring Conference, Houston, TX, 1997. 

Summary of cash flows (Figure 61.8). This document is an essential part of every capital expenditure project evaluation. The forecast thus provided will be needed in the preparation of the overall cash budget. 

Marketing forecasts for batteries have been compiled from the Annual Reports published by several battery companies. Information based on the trade journals and investor s brochures, which surveyed and evaluated the present and future global distribution of battery types, was collected. Points of interest were the availability of batteries and their performance/cost ratios, but also geographical usage in connection with social considerations, such as per-... 

This paper reviews some lessons of the climatic past that are useful in evaluating forecasts of the climatic future. 

Many pharmaceutical companies generate an early commercial assessment of an NCE for planning and strategy development, and traditional forecasts may estimate the number of pahenfs, volume of prescripfions, or fhe resulfing level of sales for a parhcular new compound in each year after its launch. These projections may not be realistic in the current market environment, however, and d5mamic modeling provides a much more operational way to generate such evaluations. 

It was endeavoured to put into operation the induetive and deductive abstrae-tion or generalisation movements mentioned at the start with the aid of these evaluation strategies in the ease studies. This was done, among other reasons, in order to formulate generalisable findings (also by means of relational comparisons), which would not have been obtained solely from the inductive generalisation of the case studies. On the basis of that, at least a rough approach for the type eharaeterisation of innovative systems was developed. In the final analysis, the aim was actually to be able to formulate (very eautious ) expectations (forecasts would certainly be too mueh) about the probable direetion of irmovation, iimova-tion level and the diffusion rate of iimovative solutions in these irmovation systems on the basis of determinable system constellations and identifiable main influential factors. ... 

In this study, operational risk was accounted for in terms of variance in both projected benefits, represented by first stage variables, and forecasted demand, represented by the recourse variables. The variability in the projected benefit represents the solution robustness where the model solution will remain close to optimal for all scenarios. On the other hand, variability of the recourse term represents the model robustness where the model solution will almost be feasible for all scenarios. This approach gives rise to a multiobjective analysis in which scaling factors are used to evaluate the sensitivity due to variations in each term. The projected benefits variation was scaled by 0i, and deviation from forecasted demand was scaled by 02, where different values of 0i and 02 were used in order to observe the sensitivity of each term on the final petrochemical complex. The objective function with risk consideration can be written as follows ... 

A feasibility study on the application of H-NMR petroleum product characterization to predict physicochemical properties of feeds and catalyst-feed interactions has been performed. The technique satisfactorily estimates many feed properties as well as catalyst-feed interactions to forecast products yield. There are, however, limitations that have to be understood when using the H-NMR method. The technique, in general, is not capable either to estimate the level of certain contaminants such as nitrogen, sulfur, nickel, and vanadium when evaluating feed properties or the effect of these contaminants on products yields while testing catalyst-feed interactions. 

When the attractiveness of new products is evaluated, either for submitting an offer or for inclusion in the R D program, manufacturing costs have to be estimated on the basis of a laboratory synthesis procedure. This is best done by breaking down the process into unit operations, the standard costs of which have been determined previously. Care has to be taken to estimate the time required for each step of a process. Thus a liquid-liquid extraction can take more time than the chemical reaction. The capability of a fine-chemical company to make dependable manufacturing cost forecasts is a distinct competitive advantage. 

In any event, forecasts about the extent and timing of global warming are subjected to frequent revisions, in contradiction with one another (Schneider 2001). Also, changes in biodiversity are hardly amenable to a quantitative evaluation because of the large number of fectors involved. These are examined in the following. 

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