Statistical forecast evaluation

The current version of Enviro-HIRLAM has not previously been evaluated against ETEX-1 measurements. The ETX domain (Eig. 5.1) was used with at time-step fixed at 10 min, and initial and boundary conditions were post-processed from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Eorecasts operational model, IFS (Integrated Forecast System). No surface or upper air data assimilation was employed and the model was integrated 80 h into the future. The start time was on 23 October 1994 at 12 00 UTC, 4 h before the start of the release. Output was interpolated to measurement stations in order to compare to the observations and produce statistical measures. 

The forecast correctness may be evaluated only in cases 1) at shortterm forecasting when the pre-emption period has already expired and actual values of parameters have been measured 2) xmder the statistical technique when forecasting is performed based on a time series of regime observations. For this the obtained final data are compared with results of either laboratory experiments with the same processes (for instance, with ionic exchange or dissolution of minerals) or field studies, sometimes with dependably established parameters. 

Shaojiang Yang. Application of weighted RSR in comprehensive evaluation of economic benefit. Statistics and Forecast (in Chinese). 1994 02 38 1. 

Forecast with the goal in mind. Evaluate the fit of the demand models and statistical engines. 

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