Casualties prediction

Casualty Predictions. NATO publication AMedP-8 gives the casualty predictions for various NBC weapons in tactical situations. 

There are no official casualty predictions for RDWs. Because of the nature of the weapon, verification of the use of the weapons may prove difficult. 

Hutchinson, R.W., G. Christopher, M.A. Mughal, and R. Gougelet. 2003. Mass casualty prediction by the numbers. Military Medical Technology 7(3) 12-16. Also available online at . 

Zone I - an area of major operational concern in the predicted biological downwind hazard area. Casualties may exceed 30% in unprotected personnel. 

Hughes reviewed mainly British and European reports and cited official British data estimating that 75-90% of mustard gas casualties had some degree of ocular Injury. A rough estimate, based on information reported by Case and Lea,13 indicates a little over 100,000 cases of eye Injury. Hughes stated that about 10% of these injuries resulted In corneal erosion, which he considered predictive of visual degeneration. Corneal transplants or contact lenses could be expected to help many patients. 

Post-Analysis Compare predicted casualty levels with intelligence reports Compare spray patterns and measurements levels with mortality data... 

Although it is not possible to predict with accuracy how much medical care will be needed at these events, it is essential that adequate patient care services are available. Any large crowd will attract individuals with various medical conditions and will always have the potential to deteriorate into a mass casualty incident (MCI Leonard Moreland, 2001). Mass casualties events that occur as the result of a disaster will, in all probability, occur and need to be handled outside of the hospital setting. Care of injuries and illness outside the hospital during disasters or special events have many common elements, which will be described in this chapter. 

To predict the total number of casualties your hospital can expect, double the number of casualties the hospital receives in the first hour. 

The total expected number of casualties will be an estimate. Many fac tors may affect the accuracy of this prediction, such as transportation difficulties and delays, security issues that may hinder access to vie tims, and multiple explosions or secondary effects of explosion (such as a building collapse). 

How can the emergency department predict the amount of casualties from an explosion What information should the emergency department receive from the scene ... 

Although we cannot predict with any certainty future CB terrorist events, it is certainly worthwhile to understand and prepare for them (National Research Council, 1999). At the same time, keeping the risks of such attacks in perspective is also crucial. The current trend still suggests that conventional high explosives will remain the mainstay of terrorists bent on causing greater numbers of casualties—and not CB weaponry. 

It is quite probable that at some time in the future, nurses may be called upon to respond to a mass casualty event or disaster outside of the hospital. Advance preparation of our national nursing workforce for such an event is predicted on the belief that mastery of the knowledge and skills needed to respond appropriately to such an event can improve patient outcomes. 

After stabilization and external decontamination, patients require assessment for radiation injury based on dose, specific isotope involved and the presence of internal contamination. By performing individual biodosimetry, physicians can predict the subsequent clinical severity, survivability and treatment required, as well as triage patients with subclinical or no exposure (2). The three most useful items for estimating exposure doses in a mass casualty situation are ... 

As has already been pointed out, the great majority of mustard gas casualties survive. Resolution of specific problems can be difficult to predict but the following may provide a guide. 

Zone 11—20% to 30% casualties, gradually decreasing to 1% to 3% casualties. Outside the predicted area—No more than 1 % to 3% casualties. 

This table provides, for four levels of work intensity (see Table 3-5), the number of minutes of work per hour in work/rest schedules tailored to the conditions specified. The remainder of each hour should be spent in rest. This table was prepared using the prediction capability of the USARIEM Heat Strain Model. Assumptions used in generating this table include 1) troops fully hydrated, rested, and acclimated 2) 50% relative humidity 3) windspeed = 2m/s 4) clear skies 5) heat casualties <5%. This guide should not be used as a substitute for common sense or experience. Individule requirements may very greatly. The appearance of heat casualties is evidence that the selected work/rest schedule is inappropriate for the conditions. USARIEM 1/11/91... 

Biological warfare agents, potential, 5-6—5-7 Biological hazard prediction, 5-0—5-5 Blister agent casualties, 1-7... 

B. Medical commanders may expect at least 10-20 percent casualties (including fatalities) within a division-size force that has experienced a retaliatory nuclear strike. This prediction only considers injury caused from the radiation, but not from secondary injuries such as displacement, falls, fire, spills, flying fragments, rolled vehicles, etc as many of the injured will be suffering combined injuries. 

A. The staff of combat units generally has an efficient system of casualty and damage assessment. After a nuclear detonation, the S2/S3 or the NBC cell will probably issue casualty and damage predictions. 

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