Risks types

Predictive Sis are mainly based on experiments and past accidents from which all kinds of safety handbooks, procedures, standards, etc, are derived. The known safety risks type of predictive Sis consists of data about substances, equipment,... 

Some further explanation must be given here, because in practice some Sis encompass Tow consequence deviations. For the known risks type of predictive Sis it is obvious that they only cover high consequence deviations in the risk matrix. New risks type of predictive Si s are developed to encompass indirect safety related deviations (i.e. Tow consequence deviations). Though, in practice these deviations are often excluded from the predictive Sis tools as Bayutt (Bayutt, 2003) shows encompassing such indirect safety related deviations is perceived as a waste of resources and attention is distracted from more important scenarios. 

Sensitivity, specificity, odds ratio, and relative risk Types of data and scales of measurement Measures of central tendency and dispersion Inferential statistics Students s t-distribution Comparing means Comparing more than two means Regression and correlation Nonparametric tests The x2-test Clinical trials INTRODUCTION... 

In 2002 the Chief Medical Officer of the UK Department of Health issued an urgent communication to all Health Professionals that oral contraceptives may contribute to the development of cervical cancer in women with high-risk type HPV, because of an association between an increased risk of cervical cancer and increasing duration of use of oral... 

Anonymous. Oral contraceptives. Risk of cervical cancer with long-term use in woman with high risk type of HPV. WHO Pharmaceuticals Newslett 2002 2 3-4. 

Are we able to classify risks according to risk types Which characteristics are relevant to evaluating risks besides the probability of occurrence and the extent of damage Are there typical risk categories that allow us to order risks by priorities ... 

To answer these questions and to be able to carry out such risk evaluations systematically, we propose a risk classification that summarizes specific risk types and determines particular strategies for rational management of risk types. 

FIGURE 2 Risk types. Source WBGU, German Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change (1999). 

Strategies and Instruments for the Risk Type Sword of Damocles"... 

In the case of the risk type Cyclops the uncertainty concerning the probability of occurrence is the starting point for regulatory measures. First of all, increased research and intensive monitoring... 

Within the scope of the second strategy, unwelcome surprises have to be prevented and the society has to be protected against it. This could happen by endangering liabilities or by compulsory insurance on certain conditions. The appropriate instruments of capacity-building and technical measures extensively correspond to the instruments of the risk type Sword of Damocles . Within the third strategy of emergency management, the same instruments as for the risk type Sword of Damocles are used. 

Because the risk type Pythia has high uncertainty concerning the criteria probability of occurrence and extent of damage, the im-... 

The improvement of knowledge has second priority so that future risk analysis can provide a higher certainty of assessment. To achieve this, research is needed on how to ascertain the probability of occurrence and the extent of damage. Additionally, an international early-warning system is necessary as for the risk type Cyclops . 

The third strategy of emergency management comes close to measures of the previous risk types. 

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