Proliferation and terrorism

These issues are outside the specific scope of this book but have been mentioned throughout in passing. 

The fight against proliferation is an organization and international control problem, with some important technical aspects, overseen by the IAEA. 

The possibility of terrorist use of nuclear substances, either of those connected with the energy cycle or of those for industrial and medical uses, is similarly a problem of national and of international control, besides being a matter of careful 

(1991) Catalogue of risks extended and updated . Health Physics, 61(3). 

HSE (1988/1992) Report of the Sizewell B public inquiry. London HMSO. 

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Ricin and Proteins The threat of a nuclear attack is one reason that Congress established the bipartisan Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism in 2007. In December 2008, the Commission issued World at Risk, a report that cautions that a weapon of mass destruction is likely to be used somewhere in the world before the end of 2013 unless action is taken immediately to forestall such an event.22 There are two major categories of weapons about which they are most concerned. Obviously, nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists could kill enormous numbers of people, and the Commission agrees that the risk of a nuclear terrorist attack is increasing. However, they predict that it is more likely that terrorists will obtain and use a biological weapon first.23... 

The RAND Corporation assembled an interdisciplinary research team to conduct this analysis. In addition to regional experts, the team included those with expertise in economics, business, political science, weapons proliferation, and terrorism. Additionally, some outside experts with unique knowledge briefed the RAND research team. 

The Convention also obligates States to criminalize the transport of biological, chemical, nuclear weapons and related material. The provisions in the treaty reflect the nexus between non-proliferation and terrorism and ensure that the international community will act to combat both. This treaty also strengthens global efforts to ensure that these extraordinarily dangerous materials will not be transported via civil aircraft for illicit purposes and, if such attempts are made, those responsible will be held accountable under the law. 

Bolton s opinion was bolstered in June 2005 by Senator Richard Lu-gar s survey of 85 non-proliferation and national security analysts from the United States and other nations. It was designed in part to characterize the risks related to the terrorist use of CBRN. The survey revealed that experts believe the probability of an attack somewhere in the world with a CBRN weapon was 50% over the next five years and 70% over the next ten. An attack with a radiological weapon was seen as the most probable with the likelihood of an attack with a nuclear or biological weapon considered about half as plausible [37]. The average probability of a nuclear attack in the next ten years was nearly 30%, with experts almost evenly divided between terrorist acquisitions of a working nuclear weapon versus self-construction [37]. The average risk estimate over ten years for major chemical and biological attacks was 20%. Senator Lu-gar concluded The bottom line is this for the foreseeable future, the United States and other nations will face an existential threat from the intersection of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. ... 

In addition to the organized and loose networks that generally fund their own activities, there are a number of states that sponsor terrorism. This is of particular concern with regards to weapons of mass destruction, because the numerous resources that can be brought to bear in state development of CBRN weapons can in turn be transferred to terrorists. Disincentives do exist to prevent this proliferation. As of October 2004, the United States lists six countries as state sponsors of terrorism Cuba, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Sudan, and Syria. Of these, five are pursuing WMD to one degree or another. Libya repudiated its WMD program as discussed below. 

Meanwhile Russia and Turkey believe that the Black Sea should be a region of cooperation and not rivalry. The countries of the Black Sea region should seek independently the solutions to the security problems, including those related to the threat of terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. 

Barletta, Michael, After 9/11 Preventing Mass-Destruction Terrorism and Weapons Proliferation, Monterey, Calif Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Occasional Paper No. 8, May 2002. 

Parachini, John, Non-Proliferation Policy and the War on Terrorism, Arms Control Today, Arms Control Association, October 2001, http //www.armscontrol.org/act/ 2001 10/parachinioct01.asp (as of January 18, 2005). 

West, to threats emanating from a (real or perceived) link between terrorism and WMD proliferation. 

By October 2002, the WGRC had met several times and discussed administrative arrangements and the objectives and methodology of the RevCon. In particular, it had agreed that, rather than the traditional Article-by-Article review, the RevCon would review the CWC on the following themes implementation of the Convention (including universality, changes to the security environment, terrorism) destruction of CW and former CW production facilities non-proliferation measures verification assistance and international cooperation. 

Recent global events have focused attention on the potential threat of international and domestie chemical terrorism as well as the possibility of chemical warfare (CW) proliferation. The need for preparedness is highlighted by the wdi-documenicd domestic terrorist u.se of an anticholinesterase compound during the Tokyo subway incident of March 1995, when commuters received toxic inhalation and dermal exposures to a nerve agent deliberately released within subway cars and stations (Liliibridge, 1995 Morita et al., 1995 Okumura el al., 1996 Sidell, 1996). 

THE STATUS OF CHEMICAL PROLIFERATION Chemical Warfare Capabilities of Nations International Agreements and Verification Terrorism... 

Proliferation resistance and physical protection (effective proliferation resistance of nuclear energy systems through improved design features and other measures, increasing physical protection against terrorism by increasing the robustness of new facilities). 

Proliferation resistance and physical protection-1 Generation IV nuclear energy systems will increase the assurance that they are a very unattractive and the least desirable route for diversion or theft of weapons-usable maferials and provide increased physical profection against acts of terrorism. 

Gravely concerned by the threat of terrorism and the risk that non-State actors" such as those identified in the United Nations list established and maintained by the Committee established under Security Council resolution 1267 and those to whom resolution 1373 applies, may acquire, develop, traffic in or use nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and their means of delivery. Gravely concerned by the threat of illicit trafficking in nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons and their means of delivery, and related materials," which adds a new dimension to the issue of proliferation of such weapons and also poses a threat to international peace and security. 

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