Individual Net Benefit Approach

The seat belt use evidence gives a clear indication of how useful our individual net benefit approach is for understanding traffic safety behavior. Studies of usage show that sufficient incentive, information and competency exists for different people in different travel situations to use seat belts differently in accordance with their own evaluation of the net benefits. 

Individual net benefit approach. Econometric regression analysis. 

Individual net benefit approach. Econometric regression analysis. Fatalities for 1947-1980,... 

In this chapter we demonstrated the absurdity of NHTSA s claim that all of the 39 percent decline in the total fatality rate since 1966 can be attributed to its regulatory programs. We have seen instead that some of the decline can be attributed to NHTSA programs, but that other important factors exist as well. An optimistic current estimate is that some indication exists that NHTSA also is aware that a comprehensive framework is necessary for policy evaluation. In Traffic Scfety 84, the successor to Motor Vehicle Safety 1979, NHTSA again describes the downward trend in the fatality rate since 1966 when federal traffic safety legislation was passed. However, in the 1984 report only partial credit is claimed for the reduction in the fatality rate. Acknowledgment is given to many factors only one of which is the set of auto safety standards. An individual net benefit approach to traffic safety facilitates systematic consideration and analysis of all of the factors. 

Recall that an exemplary benefit-cost analysis of mandatory passive restraints should reflect changes in the chances of survival in accidents and any changes in the chances of accidents. The analysis should reflect costs of installation of equipment and any increases m operation costs borne by vehicle users. The general problem with the studies reviewed is that they have taken a technological approach to traffic safety. An individual net benefit approach, which is consistent with the exemplary sodal benefit-cost analysis, suggests two critical areas of inadequaqr. The studies fail to incorporate estimates of changes in chances of accidents due to motorist response and user costs of passive safety belts associated with discomfort and inconvenience. 

The upward bias is inherent in a technological approach to traffic safety. The rigid approach caused problems in measuring the contribution of vehicle safety regulation export and it causes problems for evaluating mandatory passive restraints ex ante. The individual net benefit approach is a better approach because it incorporates zero risk compensation as a special case and permits attempts to measure any risk compensation. 

The individual net benefit approach provides a way of thinking about the costs of pursuing a policy of risk free travel and a way of thinking about a policy risk goal which would reflect social balance. 

A cogent question is whether or not the vehicle safety standards produced any safety gains. The claim that any change in the fatality rate must be due to safety policy is shown to be absurd. Instead, the comprehensive studies which estimate the safety impacts of the set of standards on fatality rates were reviewed and compared to the original predictions based on the technological approach. Most of the later studies are bottom-line analysis which employ some variant of the individual net benefit approach. The following conclusions are drawn ... 

My purpose in writing this book is to promote second generation policymaking in traffic safety. The dominant theme is that an individual net benefit approach is useful in the design, evaluation and improvement of traffic safety policy. Hopefully, this book provides some guidance for today s tougher decisions. 

Evaluative review of modern traffic safety policy, especially automobile safety standards, yields several results. The technological approach, the basis for the 1966 legislation, is shown to produce mistakes. Benefits are overestimated and endangerment of nonoccupants is ignored. The risk homeostatic approach, the devil s idea to some in the safety community, is shown to be a limiting case of the more general individual net benefit approach. Rationality and competency in travelers safety decisions are reviewed in a broad context. Evidence beyond the realm of behavioral... 

Multivariate analysis of belt use isolate the separate efl ects of several individual variables at the same time. In my own work I employ an individual benefit-cost approach and multivariate probit analysis to explain voluntary seat belt use and nonuse. For a national sample of over 1,800 drivers in 19721 find that the probability of use is higher the greater are the expected net private benefits of belt use. 

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